2025年世界预览-在动荡的海洋和崛起的中国，制药业增长稳定

ForewordDrug sales forecasts to 2030reflect solid underlyingdemand. But much ischanging across thebiopharmaceutical landscape. See-sawing global tariffs, a US regulator in fluxand a possible end to US drug price premia arenot, apparently, enough to stymiepharmaceutical industry growth. Worldwideprescription drug sales will reach over $1.75trillion in 2030, representing a compound annualgrowth of over 7%. Obesity drugs are once againleading the charge, posting average annualgrowth of 20% between 2024 and 2030. Bythen, GLP-1 agonists and related combinationswill comprise close to 9% of all prescription drugsales. They are in a class of their own.Immuno-inflammatory drugs also loom large in2030’s top ten best-sellers – AbbVie’s Skyrizi(risankizumab) and Sanofi/Regeneron's Dupixent(dupilumab) are both on track to sell over $25bn.ForewordDrug sales forecasts to 2030 reflect solid underlying demand. But much is changing across thebiopharmaceutical landscapeThe Evaluate World Preview is writtenby Melanie Senior Oncology, too, remains in the mix: Johnson &Johnson/Genmab’s blood cancer drug Darzalex(daratumumab) almost matching Merck’s fallinggiant Keytruda (pembrolizumab) which will fallto seventh place.Multi-indication blockbusters like Dupixent –which recently added to its labels chronicobstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) andurticaria, a type of skin rash – are the best salvefor Big Pharma’s ongoing patent expiry woes.Keytruda’s 2028 expiry puts Merck at the top ofthe most exposed companies to patent-relatedsales losses over the rest of the decade – and isthe only top ten drug with negative growth. ButKeytruda’s sub-cutaneous formulation –expected to be approved in the US inSeptember – takes fifth place in the mostvaluable pipeline drugs by net present value. It’s2025’s WorldPreview is not allbusiness-as-usual. pharma holds off large dealmaking, it weakensthe M&A life-raft that proved so vital to asuffering biotech industry in 2023 and 2024.Biotech, bruised from a five-year downcycle, isnot out of the woods.Dealmaking will return. Yet more enduringforces-for-change are also at work acrossbiopharma. a shining case study in life-cycle management.The forthcoming GLP-1 combos andformulations may prove similarly effective.So far, so familiar. But 2025’s World Preview isnot all business-as-usual. Policy uncertainty,FDA upheaval and cuts to National Institutes ofHealth (NIH) funding are layering furtheruncertainty onto an already risky sector. As China is churning out best- and even first-in-class molecules more quickly and cheaply thanits Western counterparts. China-sourced assetswill make up almost 40% of all licensing dealsthis year, up from less than 3% five years ago.The implications for Western biopharma areprofound. R&D efficiency must improve, or eventhe US risks playing second fiddle to a nationthat appears to be delivering what Westernpayers and consumers want: cheaper, fasterinnovation.AI may provide some of the answer to the Chinaquestion. But its role and impact have yet toplay out – across biopharma like everywhereelse.Certainties amid the turmoil are continueddemand for better medicines, and pricingpressure. Whether or not President Trump’s‘most favored nation’ pricing plan finds its wayonto the stage, the sector is likely to remain inpolicymakers’ crosshairs. All the more so asbiologics, which carry higher prices than small molecule medicines, will account for almosttwo-thirds of overall prescription drugs’ value by2030.Forecasting is harder, yet more important,during such volatile times. This year’s WorldPreview quantifies industry trends and flags upfuture challenges. How many deal andinvestment dollars will China divert from the USand Europe? Could biologics’ steady marchprompter harsher cost-controls? Will a shook-upUS regulator reduce or increase the chance ofgetting innovative assets over the line? A Class ofTheir OwnPreviously unseen sales peaksbeckon for GLP-1s. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)- based drugsare now a category apart, projected to reachhitherto unseen sales peaks. Tirzepatide, sold byEli Lilly & Co. as Mounjaro for diabetes andZepbound for obesity, will be worth close to $62billion by 2030. That’s three times larger than thepeak reached by AbbVie’s auto-immune diseaseblockbuster Humira, and double 2024 sales ofMerck & Co Inc.’s cancer behemoth Keytruda,now on the brink of generic competition.GLP-1 based drugs will make up five of the topten best-sellers in 2030, and account for four ofthe top ten most promising pipeline candidates.Lilly’s supremacy in this battle is alreadyapparent. Mounjaro and Zepbound will be thebest- and third-best sellers, respectively, by theend of the decade, and Lilly’s oral GLP-1orforglipron and triple-G agonist retatrutide arein the top three most valuable pipelinecontenders. First-mover Novo Nordisk lostground due to its sluggish response tomanufacturing shortages of Wegovy(semaglutide), which led to a flood of head-to-head study late last year s