野村-中国：应对需求断崖的挑战

Research AnalystsAsia EconomicsTing Lu - NIHKting.lu@nomura.com+852 2252 1306Jing Wang - NIHKjing.wang@nomura.com+852 2252 1011Harrington Zhang - NIHKharrington.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2057Hannah Liu - NIHKhannah.liu@nomura.com+852 2252 1082 The new austerity rule and payback from the trade-in programBeijing launched the new anti-extravagance campaign in late May, prohibiting alcohol,tobacco and luxury meals at official meals. On 19 May, over the single day following thepolicy announcement, share prices of top Baijiu companies – Kweichow Moutai,Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao – dropped by 2.2%, 1.4% and 2.6% (Figure 1),respectively, and the impact from this new austerity rule extends beyond alcohol. Due toits stringent enforcement, government officials and SOE workers are refraining fromdinning out with friends and family, so the services sector, from catering to traveling, couldbe severely hit.Aside from the dampened demand in the services sector, as we noted in ourspecialreport, goods consumption faces headwinds from the payback effect of the consumertrade-in program. We expect the monthly average funding for the trade-in program todecrease to RMB23bn in H2 from RMB27bn in H1. With demand for durable goods largelyfront-loaded since the program’s September 2024 launch, the stimulus effect from thegovernment subsidy is likely to weaken significantly in H2. We expect the net boost toyear-on-year retail sales growth from the trade-in program to drop to 0.4pp in H2 from0.9pp in H1 on falling subsidies and the payback from frontloading.In view of the new austerity rule, payback from the trade-in program, a higher base fromlast year and worsening consumption fundamentals, we expect retail sales growth to slownotably to 3.1% y-o-y in H2 from an expected 5.1% in H1. In addition to providing a one-offsubsidy to consumption, Beijing might need to considerlonger-term structural policiestosupport consumption. In our view, reforms to the social security system, including a largeincrease inbasic pension paymentsto low-income households and raising subsidies forbasic medical insurance, would be the most effective long-term policy to bolsterconsumption and reduce inequality.Headwinds from the new austerity ruleOn 18 May, the CCP Central Committee and State Council jointly issued anupdatedversion of the austerity regulation for government officials and SOE workers. Theoriginalregulationwas introduced in 2013, which serves as a party law that facilitates theimplementation of the eight-point rules. The newly revised austerity guideline marks anescalation of the anti-extravagance campaign, prohibiting alcohol and tobacco at officialmeals and discouraging government workers from dining at upscale restaurants.During the 2013 anti-extravagance campaign, catering sectors were severely disrupted.According to the NBS, growth in catering revenue for firms with annual revenue aboveRMB2mn slumped to -3.3% y-o-y in January-February 2013 from 13.0% in December2012 (Figure 2), marking the first negative growth on record. In cities like Beijing andShanghai, high-end catering revenue plummeted by over 35% in 2013. Many well-knownrestaurant brands that were heavily reliant on government clients, like Xiang E Qing andQiao Jiangnan, shuttered entirely.Compared to 2013, enforcement could be more stringent today, and penalties for non-compliance could be harsher. Social media and big data monitoring make violations easierto spot. To steer clear of scrutiny or misconduct, government officials and SOE employeesmay need to avoid dining out entirely, even for personal gatherings with friends and family.As a result, the impact on catering, as well as on the tobacco and liquor sector, could bemore evident. According to our estimates, the affected groups, comprising governmentofficials and SOE workers, account for around 18% of urban employment. We expect retailsales in the catering sector to slow notably to 1.0% in H2 from an expected 5.0% in H1,adding a 0.5pp drag to headline retail sales growth.Payback from the consumer trade-in programThe ongoing consumer goods trade-in program was launched last year, with RMB150bnoffunding in the last four months of 2024 and another RMB300bn this year from thecentral government. Local governments are directed to provide an additional one ninth ofthe amount they receive from Beijing. As of June, 54% of government funding has beendeployed, and the effect appears to be encouraging.Retail sales growthrose to 5.0% y-o-y in the first five months of 2025 from 3.8% in Q4 2024.On our estimates, the monthly average funding for the trade-in program will decrease toRMB23bn in H2 from RMB27bn in H1 and RMB37.5bn in the last four months of 2024;accordingly, we estimate the net boost to year-on-year retail sales growth from theprogram will drop to 0.4pp in H2 from 0.9pp in H1 on falling subsidies, payback fromfrontloading and a higher base. Adding in the impact of the new austerity rule on public officials and SOE managers, we