红海中断将持续，散货船在胡塞武装袭击后撤离

IndustryWeekly Voyage微信 Chris RobertsonResearch Analyst+1-212-250-9995 7 July 2025ShippingWeeklyVoyageContainer Freight IndicesThe Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFl) was down 5.3% w/wto $1,763.49The ScFl is down 65.5% off its peak, but is 129.1% above the pre-pandemicaverage.TheChinaContainerizedFreightIndex(CCFl)wasdown1.9%w/wto$1,342.99TheCcFlis down 62.6%off its peak, butis65.8%abovethepre-pandemic average.Fuel Spread / Scrubber PremiumsThe VLSFO-HSFO fuel spread was up 2.78% to ~$111/mt..Page 2 9eC 7 July 2025ShippingWeekly VoyageShipping Stock PerformanceFigure 1: W/W Shipping Stock performance-4.0%Source : Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 2: 52-Week High/Low Range vs. Current Price$180$160$140$120$100$80540$20Source : Bloomberg Finance LPDeutscheBankSecuritiesInc. 7 July 2025ShippingWeekly VoyageSpot TCE Rates By SegmentBelow we present the latest spot TCE rates in the tanker and dry bulk segments.Spot TCE rates change on a daily basis based on underlying supply and demandfactors and only represent a snapshot in time.Figure 3: Crude Tanker Spot TCE Rates ($/day)$300,000$260,000$220,000$180,000$140,000$100,000$60,000$20,000$20,000200201111222233334444555Source : Clarksons ReseFigure 5: Tanker Spot TCE Rate ComparisonVLCCSuezmaxAframaxLR2LR1MRSpotTankerRatesbyVesselClassBelow, we present current tanker spot charter rates by vessel class.Figure 6: VLCC Spot Charter Rates ($/day)$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,000-$20,000Source : Clarksons ResPage 4 VLCCSuezmaxCurrent$28,112$35,557$32,167$22,426$19,196$19,217Limited, Deutsche Ban2023pes Limited,Deutsche Bank Figure 4: Product Tanker Spot TCE Rates ($/day)$180,000$160,000$140,000$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,000$20,000222111222233334- Aframaxw/wM/MY/Y-16%13%7%-12%-4%-23%-11%-12%-19%-23%-12%-43%-12%-22%-49%-20%9%-36%Figure 7: LR2 Spot Charter Rates ($/day)$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,000-$20,000rch Services Limited, Deutsche Bank s Limited, Deutsche Bank20222023Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 7July2025ShippingWeekly VoyageFigure 8: Suezmax Spot Charter Rates ($/day)$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,00$40,000620,0002021Source : Clarksons ReseaFigure 10: Aframax Spot Charter Rates ($/day)$160,000$140,000$120,000$100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20,0002021Source : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Deutsche BankFigure 12: Bulk Carrier Spot TCE Rates ($/day)$80,000$70,000$60,000$50,000$40,000$30,000$20,000$10,000Source : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Deutsche BankDeutscheBankSecurities Inc. Source : ClarkFigure 13: Avg. Capesize Rates ($/day)$80,000$70,000$60,000$50,000$40,000$30,000$20,000$10,000$o20222023Source : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Deutsche Bank 7 July 2025ShippingWeekly VoyageFigure 14: Dry Bulk Spot Rates ComparisonCapesize $13,941PanamaxSupramax $10,373Source : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Deutsche BankContainer Freight RatesFigure 16: Current Freight Rates Compared WithPre-COVID (2015-2019) Average7/4/2025w/w %Pre-Cov Avg.Source : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Deutsche BankPage 6 Source : Braeen, Deutsche BankFigure 17: Container Freight Rates ($/teu)$6,000$5,000$4,000$3,000$2,000$1,000Source : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Deutsche Bank $1,763.49$769.66Diff%129.1% 7July2025ShippingWeekly VoyageFive-Year Old Secondhand Asset Values By SegmentSecondhand ship values are useful metric both on an absolute basis and how theyhave changed over time. Rising asset values tend to indicate positive forward-looking rate sentiment by ship owners, while falling asset values tend to signal theopposite. Below we look at the year-over-year change in 5-year old secondhandasset values in the crude tanker and dry bulk segments.Figure 18: Five-Year Secondhand Tanker Prices ($MM)$120$110$100$90$80$70$60$50$40Figure 20: Five-Year Secondhand Bulk Carrier Prices($MM)$70$60$50$30$20$10OSSource : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Deutsche BankDeutscheBank Securities Inc VLCCAframa)CapesizePanamaxxewApueH ---- Figure 19: Y/Y Change In 5-year Old Secondhand TankerAsset Values (%)4%2%0%2%4%-6%%810%12%14%16%18%VLCCSuezmaxSource : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Deutsche BankFigure 21: Y/Y Change In 5-Year Old Secondhand Dry BulkAsset Values (%)0%10%15%20%25%CapesizeSource : Clarksons Research Services Limited, Deutsche Bank 7 July2025ShippingWeekly VoyageOrderbook Information By SegmentThe orderbook-to-fleet (OB/F) ratio is a useful metric to gauge fleet growth incoming years by segment. This is a useful metric as it allows for cross-segmentcomparisons. Below we also look at the orderbook of each shipping segment andwhat percentage of the current orderbook is expected to deliver in the comingyears.Figure 22: Shipping Segments OB/F Ratio (%)Crude TankerProduct TankerThe OB/F ratio forthe crude tanker segment hit a recent low of 2.97% in April 2023and has come up to 12.4%.The OB/F ratio for the product tanker segment hit a recent low of ~