2025年5月半导体行业收入高于预期，受内存和特殊用途逻辑驱动

IndustryMay 2025 SIA DataRelease Ross SeymoreResearch Analyst+1-415-617-3268Melissa WeathersResearch Analyst+1-212-250-2134DJ SebastianResearchAssociate+1-415-262-2007Apoorva KumarResearch Associate+1-212-250-9286 7 July 2025SemiconductorsMay 2025 SIA Data Release(-22% y/y) more than offset improvements in unit sales (+6% y/y)Analog modestly below DBe on negative m/m unit sales growthAnalog revenues of $6.5b (-3% m/m vs. 10-yr avg. of -2% m/m) came in modestlybelow DBe at $6.7b, as unit sales declined -3% m/m (well below seasonal growthof+2%m/m) while AsPs were flat (betterthan the seasonal decline of -4%m/m)On a 3MMA basis, Analog revenues increased +6% y/y (down from +7% y/y in Apr),as positive trends in unit sales (+6% y/y) offset muted trends in AsPs (flat y/y).MPUs in-line with DBe on positive unit sales/ASP trendsMPU revenues of s4.6b werein-line withDBebutupona m/mbasis (+6%m/mvs10-yr avg. of +1% m/m) as unit sales grew +4% m/m (well above a seasonal -2%m/mdecline)andASPsgrew+2%m/m(slightlybelowseasonalgrowthof+3%m/m). On a 3MMA basis, MPU revenues increased +10% y/y,as strong ASP growthof +17% y/y (slightly down from +18% y/y in Apr) more than offset a -6% y/y declinein unit sales.Figure 1: Monthly Total Semiconductor Revenues bySegmentStanLogicMCU, 3%Other, 3%Discretes, 4%MPU.Logic, 33%Source : Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)Page 2 Figure 2: 3MMA yly Revenue Growth by Segment (Trailing2 Months)+50%9+25%eDr@1. 19%SFlash, 9%Source : Semiconductor Industry Association (SIAJ, Deutsche Bank Estimates +7% +6%+3%+3%0%-25%Analog Discretes DRAM 7 July2025SemiconductorsMay 2025 SIA Data ReleaseFigure 3: Y/Y Growth in YTD Revenues by Segment50% -40%30%20%10%5%0%-10%-2%-10%-8%-6%20%NANDMCUCDiscretOptoelectroniFigure 5: Semi Industry Units & ASPs 3MMA y/y Trends50%Y/Y Unit Change40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%May-15May-17May-19DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc. ictor Industry Association (SIA) 7 July2025SemiconductorsMay 2025 SIA Data ReleaseFigure 7: MPU Revenue 3MMA yly Trends40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50% JMay-15May-17May-19Source : Semfustry Association (SIA)Figure 9: Discrete/Opto/Sensor 3MMA ASPs ($/unit)ASPs ($/unit)$0.10$0.09$0.08$0.07$0.06$0.05$0.04$0.03$0.02$0.01$0.00May-15May-17May-19Source : Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)Figure 11: MPU 3MMA ASPs ($/unit)ASPs (S/unit)$160.00$140.00$120.00$100.00$80.00$60.00$40.00$20.00$0.00May-15May-17May-19Source : Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)Page 4 Source : Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)Figure 12: NAND 3MMA ASPs ($/unit)ASPs ($/unit)$9.00$8.00$7.00$6.00$5.00$4.00$3.00$2.00$1.00$0.00May-15May-17May-19Source : Semiconduor Industry Association (SIA) Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localand other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primaryour website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EguityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report,important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subjectissuers and the securities of those. issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive anyDeutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5 7 July 2025SemiconductorsMay 2025 SIA Data ReleaseEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipscompanies covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship MIFID Investment & Ancllary ServicesEquity Rating and Dispersion KeyThe Equity Rating Dispersion Chart depicts the following:The proportion of recommendations that are rated"buy","sell"and"hold" over the previous 12 months. This is shown forsecurities issued in the stated region e.g. "Europe Universe". See rating definitions below. This is represented by the"Companies Covered" bars in the chart. The percentage value displayed above the bar is the proportion as a percentage.E.g. 50% above the "buy" / "Companies Covered" bar means that 50% of DB's equity research covered companies overthe past 12 months have a "buy" rating.Next to each of the three respective bars showing the proportion of "buy", "sell" and "hold" recommendations we providetwo additional bars to show:- The proportion of "buy","sell" or"hold recommendations where Deutsche Bank and or/Affiliates provided MIFIDInvestmentorAncillaryServices inthepast12months.Thisisrepresented inthe"MiFiDInvestmentandAncillaryServices" bar. The percentage value displayed above the bar shows the proportion of Companies Covered with the givenrating where DB has also provided MIFID Investment and Ancillary Services in the past 12 months. E.g. 50% above thealso received MIFID Investment and Ancillary Services from DB.- The proportion of "buy" (or"sell" or "hold) recomme