欧洲钢铁价差持续回落，关税消息主导并增加不确定性

IndustrySteel SpreadTracker Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377Liam FitzpatrickResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13233 7 July 2025SteelSteel Spread TrackerChinese HRC prices slightly up, but still weakChinese domestic rebar prices were down RMB5/t to RMB3,289/t, while HRCpriceswereupRMB45/ttoRMB3,239/t.RebarpriceshavedecreasedbyRMB162/tover the past three months, while HRC prices have decreased by RMB140/t.Chinese HRC export prices stand at USD435-450/t (up USD1/t vs last week).Considering transport costs and the 50% S232 duty, this implies a US parity priceofUSD815-835/t.Raw material prices broadly stableIron ore (62% Fe) prices were up USD1/t last week to the USD95-97/t range. Coalprices were down USD1/t to the USD170-185/t range. US scrap prices were stableat the USD325-335/t range, while European scrap prices were up USD1/t to theUSD310-320/t range.Page 2 ecS微信 9 Source : Kallanish, Bloomberg Finance LpDeutsche Bank AG Deutsche Bank Steel &Mining teamEuropeBastian SynagowitzLiam Fitzpatrick(+41) 44 227 3377(+44) 207 541 3233bastian.synagowitz@db.comliam.fitzpatrick@db.comvsnCorinne Blanchard+1904 6452360corinne.blanchard@db.comSpecialty salesAlexander-J Butler+(44) 207 541 5550Alexander-j.butler@db.comDeutsche Bank AG Steel price summaryFigure 3: Steel price summaryPrices for the week June 27 - July 04Price pertonneIndexUSDHot Rolled Coil (HRC)Germany635-650Italy630-640USA985-1000Chinese exports435-450Cold Rolled Coil (CRC)Germany790-805Italy760-775USA1160-1170Hot Dipped Galvanised Coil (HDG)Germany790-805Italy775-785USA1185-1200PlateGermany795-810Italy730-740USA1230-1240RebarGermany720-730USA885-900Iron ore as of 04 July 2025Fines 62% Fe95-97Scrap as of 03 July 2025Us325-335Europe310-320Coking coal as of 04 July 2025PremiumCokingCoal/AustralianExports170-185Sou:Deushe Bank, CRU,Argus Media,Kllanish, Boombrg FinaeIndustry valuation and risksWe use various methodologies to value the steel companies under our coverage -from a DcF-based valuation to a normalised earnings approach and a sum-of-the-parts(SOTP)analysis.Keyindustryrisksinclude(1)globaleconomicgrowthnotmeeting/exceeding expectations; (2) lower- or higher-than-expected steel prices,whichcouldresultinanerosionof,oraboostto,earnings;(3)higher/lowerrawmaterial and other operating costs, which could limit/help earnings growth; (4)political influence of governments on the steel trade; (5) expansion projects failingto progress as expected; and (6) M&A valuation and integration risks.Page 4 Spreads and cash costsFigure 4: German HRC vs BOF HRC cash costs (averageFigure 5: German HRC vs BOF HRC cash costs (marginalproducers)producers with full CO2 cost)Spread (HRC-BOF cash cost)BOF cash costUSD/tUSD/tGerman HRC pricesAverage spread1,800 -1,8001,6001,6001,4001,4001,2001,2001,0001,0008008006006004002004002000200-200-400Figure 6: US HRC vs BOF HRC cash costsFigure 7: US HRC vs EAF HRC cash costsSpread (HRC-BOF cash cost)BOFcashcostUSD/tUSD/tUS HRC pricesAverage spread2,5002,3002,0001,8001,5001,3001,000800500300500200011228344556677889922222223445501122334455667788922222233445Source : Deutsche Bank estimates, CRUSource : Deutsche Bank estimates, CRUFigure 8: German plate vs BOF cash costsFigure 9: US plate vs EAF cash costsSpread (Plate-BOF cash cost)BOF cash costUSD/tUSD/tGerman Plate pricesAverage spread2,5002,5002,0002,0001,5001,5001,0001,000500500Deutsche Bank AG 7 July 2025SteelSteel Spread TrackerFigure 10: German rebar vs EAF cash costsSpread (Rebar-EAF cash cost)USD/t,German Rebar prices16001400120010008006004002000-200-400 Jnr n r n nr inr r nr r r r nr inr nr n101112213141516171819202122232425Source : Deutsche Bank estimates, Argus MediaFigure 12: Chinese HRC price-cost spread (using coke)7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000Jul 15Jul 17Chinese HRC spread with coke (CNY/t) (RHS)Chinese HRC spot price (CNY/t) (LHS)1.65*spot ore +0.4*coke (LHS)Source : Deutsche Bank estimates, Bloomberg Finance LPPage 6 Figure 13: Chinese rebar price-cost spread (using coke)7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000Jul 15Jul 17Chinese rebar spread with coke (CNY/t) (RHS)Chinese rebar spot (CNY/t) (LHS)1.65*spot ore +0.4*coke (LHS)Source : Deutsche Bank estimates, Bloomberg Finance LP Primary steel-making rawmaterial pricesFigure 14: Fines 62% Fe, CFR Tianjin Port, ChinaFigure 15: QoQ performance230ines62%Fe USD/ts 62% Fe EUR/t21019015170150130Q3 23Q4 23110907013%Jul 15Jul16Jui17Jul18Jul19Source : Bloomberg Finance LPSource : Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 16: Premium coking coal (Australian exports)Figure 17: QoQ performance730Premium Coking Coal USD/tPremium Coking Coal EUR/t63053013430Q323Q4 2333023029%1305%Jul15 Jul 16Jul 17Jul 18Jul 19Jul20Jul 21Jul 22Jul 23Jul 24Jul 25Source : Bloomberg Finance LPDeutsche Bank AG Regional spreads and tradestatisticsFigure 18: Italian HRC vs Chinese HRCFigure 19: German HRC vs US HRCUSD/tSpread (RHS)Italian HRC prices (LHS)USD/tSpread2,000800USD/tChinese HRC export prices (LHS)Average spread (RHS)Germany HRC prices2,400600