信用｜未脱离季节性，继续压利差

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师孟万林SAC证书编号：S0160525030002mengwl@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com联系人李飞丹lifd@ctsec.com相关报告1.《流动性｜资金利率还能继续下移吗？》2025-07-052.《高频｜反内卷的风吹到了黑色系》2025-07-053.《利率|6月数据是否冲量？》2025-07-03 核心观点为什么？用。的空间。❖如何参与？❖发展超预期 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1市场回顾：信用债普遍下行...................................................................................................................51.1市场表现如何？..................................................................................................................................51.2跨季后，基金、理财买入力量增强..................................................................................................71.3长久期成交占比：城投上、产业下、二永上..................................................................................92市场展望：信用债未脱离季节性规律.................................................................................................102.1信用债未脱离季节性规律................................................................................................................102.2融资恢复较快，但对市场影响有限................................................................................................133信用买什么？.........................................................................................................................................143.1二永比价优势回落............................................................................................................................143.2普信票息更占优................................................................................................................................154附录.........................................................................................................................................................184.1一级发行情况统计............................................................................................................................184.2二级估值变动细节............................................................................................................................235风险提示.................................................................................................................................................26图1.本周收益率变动.....................................................................................................................................5图2.本周信用利差变动.................................................................................................................................5图3.信用债收益率变动.................................................................................................................................6图4.信用利差变动.........................................................................................................................................6图5.信用收益率和利差变动.........................................................................................................................7图6.保险对银行间信用债的净买入情况.....................................................................................................8图7.基金对银行间信用债的净买入情况.....................................................................................................8图8.银行理财规模存续规模.........................................................................................................................8图9.银行理财规模变动的季节性较强.........................................................................................................8图10.理财对银行间信用债的净买入情况...................................................................................................8图11.其他产品对银行间信用债的净买入情况...........................................................................................8图12.各类信用债成交剩余成交期限占比（按金额）...............................................................................9图13.各类信用债成交隐含评级占比（按金额）.....................................................................................10图表目录内容目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图14. 2022年信用债利差走势.....................................................................................................................10图15. 2023年信用债利差走势.....................................................................................................................10图16. 2024年和2025年信用利差的季节性对比.......................................................................................11图17.信用利差变动（2025/7/4 vs 2024/8/5）...........................................................................................11图18. R001.....................................................................................................................................................12图19. DR007..................................................................................................................................................12图20.大行融出余额与R001.......................................................................................................................12图21.大行存贷差季节性.............................................................................................................................13图22.存单收益率...............................