肯尼亚经济更新，2025年5月

Special Focus on Poverty andDistributional Impacts ofFiscal Policy in Kenya © 2025. World Bank GroupThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and otherinformation shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank Group concerning the legalstatus of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this workmay be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 HStreet NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. ABBREVIATIONS..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................iACKNOWLEDGEMENTS..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................iiEXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................iiiTHE STATE OF KENYA’S ECONOMY1. Recent Economic Developments..............................................................................................................................................................................................................21.1The global and regional economy.................................................................................................................................................................................................21.2Recent developments in Kenya.......................................................................................................................................................................................................21.3The real economy.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................31.4External sector.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................51.5Monetary and financial-sector performance..........................................................................................................................................................................71.6Fiscal developments...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................82. Outlook and Risks................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 102.1Outlook........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 102.2Risks to the outlook and policy recommendations............................................................................................................................................................ 13SPECIAL FOCUS3. Poverty and Distributional Impacts of Fiscal Policy in Kenya.................................................................................................................................................. 163.1Kenya's economic growth has not sufficiently reduced poverty................................................................................................................................ 163.2How do taxes, subsidies and social spending redistribute income?........................................................................................................