菲律宾经济更新，2025年6月：小企业，大影响-催化菲律宾经济增长

June 2025 Edition PREFACE The Philippines Economic Update (PEU) summarizes key economic and social developments, importantpolicy changes, and the evolution of external conditions over the past six months. It also presents findingsfrom recent World Bank analyses, situating them in the context of the country’s long-term developmenttrends and assessing their implications for the country’s medium-term economic outlook. The update coversissues ranging from macroeconomic management and financial-market dynamics to the complex challengesof poverty reduction and social development. It is intended to serve the needs of a wide audience, includingpolicymakers, business leaders, private firms and investors, and analysts and professionals engaged in thesocial and economic development of the Philippines. The PEU is a biannual publication of the World Bank’s Economic Policy (EP) Global Practice (GP), preparedin partnership with the Finance, Competitiveness and Investment (FCI); Poverty; and Social and ProtectionGlobal Practices. Lars Christian Moller (Practice Manager for the EP GP) and Gonzalo Varela (Lead Economistand Program Leader) guided the preparation of this edition. The team consisted of Jaffar Al-Rikabi (SeniorEconomist and Task Team Leader), Remrick Patagan (Economist), Kevin Cruz (Economist), Chenyu Mao(Young Professional), Patrizia Benedicto (Research Analyst), Ludigil Garces and Angela Diana (Consultants)from the EP GP; Ou Nie (Financial Sector Economist) from the FCI GP; Liliana Sousa (Senior Economist) andIrene Arzadon (E T Consultant) from the Poverty GP; and Monica Melchor (Consultant) from the Social GP.A World Bank team from the FCI GP, consisting of Jaime Frias (Senior Economist), Luis Andres Razon Abad(Senior Private Sector Specialist) and Kimberly May Baltao Chandra (Senior Private Sector Specialist) led PartIII on Philippine SMEs and global value chains, under the guidance of Ilias Skamnelos (Practice Manager) andLars Moller. The report was edited by the graphic designer was Pol Villanueva (Consultant). Peer reviewerswere Smita Kuriakose (Lead Economist, EAEF2), Mehwish Ashraf (Senior Economist, EEAM2) and AdnanAshraf Ghumman (Senior Economist, ESAC1) Logistics and publication support were provided by GeraldineAsi (Team Assistant). The External Communications Team, consisting of David Llorito (External Affairs Officer),Mario Villamor (Senior External Affairs Officer), Stephanie Margallo (External Affairs Associate), and JustineEspina Letargo (Consultant) prepared the media release, dissemination plan, and web-based multimediapresentation. The team would like to thank Zafer Mustafaoglu (Division Director for Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei)for his advice and support. The report benefited from the recommendations and feedback of variousstakeholders in the World Bank as well as from the government, the business community, labor associations,academic institutions, and civil society. The team is grateful for their contributions and perspectives.The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in the PEU are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the views of the World Bank’s executive board or any national government. If you wish tobe included in the email distribution list for the PEU and related publications, please contact Geraldine Asi(gasi@worldbank.org). For questions and comments regarding the content of this publication, please contactJaffar Al-Rikabi (jalrikabi@worldbank.org). Questions from the media should be addressed to David Llorito(dllorito@worldbank.org). For more information about the World Bank and its activities in the Philippines,please visit www.worldbank.org/ph. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.1Recent Global Developments: Softening Activity amid Heightened Uncertainty121.2Output and Demand in the Philippines: Slower Growth amid Increased Uncertainty and Headwinds151.3Inflation and Monetary Policy: Monetary Easing amid Slower Inflation181.4External Sector: External sector: Higher Imports, Stronger Peso221.5Fiscal Sector: Widening Deficit251.6Employment and Poverty: Labor Market Resilience and Poverty Alleviation28Part II.Outlook and Risks32 2.1Growth Outlook2.2Poverty Outlook2.3Risks and Policy Challenges Part III. Philippine SMEs and global value chains: the case for strategic support. 3.1SMEs: missing out on the benefits of export supply chains463.2Restricted access to testing facilities and certification services513.3Limited access to finance543.4Limited market information563.5A strategic approach to supporting SMEs’ potential in exports and global value chains57References60 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Global activity continued to grow in Q1…13Figure 2. …but global policy uncertainty heightened.13Figure 3. PMI continues to slow down…14Figure 4. …and commodity prices have also fallen in tandem.14Figure 5. The growth contribution of services declined substantially.16Figure 6. Slower export growth dragged down its contribution to domestic demand.17Figure 7. Lower