爱沙尼亚共和国：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告

2025ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION—PRESS RELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussionswith members, usually every year. In the context of the2025Article IV consultation withthe Republic of Estonia, the following documents have been released andare included inthis package: •APress Release •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration onlapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onMay19, 2025, with the officials ofthe Republic of Estoniaon economic developmentsand policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staffreport was completed onJuly 9, 2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staffreports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMFExecutiveBoardConcludes2025ArticleIVConsultationwith Estonia FORIMMEDIATERELEASE •After a long downturn, the Estonian economy is experiencing a gradual recovery, buthigherinputcosts,alegacyofearliershocks,alongwithglobalpolicyuncertaintyandtrade barriers are preventing a more vigorous rebound. •In response to fast-rising defense spending needs, a further fiscal adjustment isneededtostabilizethedebtratioandpreservecriticalbuffersagainstfutureshocks. •Carefully calibrated macroprudential policies, more decisive domestic structuralmeasures,andadeeperEUsinglemarketwouldbeinstrumentalinbuildingresilienceand fostering transformation. Washington, DC–July14, 2025:On July 9, 2025, IMFExecutive Board of the InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Estoniaon a lapse of time basis on July 9, 2025.1The authorities have consented to thepublication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.2 2Option 1:Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication ofdocuments that pertain to membercountriesisvoluntaryandrequiresthememberconsent.Thestaffreportwillbeshortlypublishedonthewww.imf.org/[country]page. Option2:UndertheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,publicationofdocumentsthatpertaintomembercountries is voluntary and requires the member consent. Option 3:Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to membercountriesisvoluntaryandrequiresthememberconsent.Theauthoritieshaverequestedadditionaltimeto decide on the publication of the staff report. A final decision is expected not later than 28 days fromthe Board consideration date. Option4(opt-outs):UndertheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,publicationofdocumentsthatpertaintomember countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The authorities have not yetcommunicated their decision on the publication of the staff report. The Estonian economy is showing signs of a mild recovery. After contracting sharply in2023, sequential growth returned to positive territory in 2024Q1. Exports of goodsexpanded, led by stronger demand from the main trading partners, and so didinvestment.Thereboundwasalsoaccompaniedbyashort-livedsurgeinconsumption,ascar sales jumped in anticipation of a new motor vehicle tax and then dropped sharplyonce the tax came into effect in January. Increases in taxes and services prices are keeping inflation elevated. After averaging 3.7percentin2024,headlineinflationstoodat4.6percentinMay2025aspriceswerepushedup by the effect of a new motor vehicle tax, which staff estimates to have added 1.2percentage points to annual inflation. While higher taxes should only lead to temporaryincrease in inflation, they may have fueled higher wage demands, and fed through higherprices of services, for which labor is a relatively large input. GDP isprojected to expand by only 0.5percent in 2025 and accelerate to 1.5 percent in2026.Moderategrowthintheeuroareaandotherexportmarketsisseenslowlyspillingover to domestic demand, encouraging firms to revisit investment and, to some extent,hiring plans. In turn, better job prospects could support income and consumption.However, growth is expected to remain mild this year with global policy uncertaintyhinderingastrongerrecovery.Inflationisexpectedat5.1percentin2025,heldupbythetemporary effects of tax increases and domestic cost pressures. ExecutiveBoardAssessment3 Estonia is recovering from a prolonged recession but faces challenges. A mild recovery isexpectedtocontinue,supportedbyamoreexpansionarypolicymix.Higherinputcosts,alegacy of earlier shocks, and trade barriers are set to prevent a more vigorous rebound.Theexternalpositionisbroadlyinlinewithfundam