2024年塑造医疗经济的趋势

A P P L Y I N G T H E L A W S O F E C O N O M I C S T O I D E N T I F Y E M E R G I N G H E A L T H E C O N O M Y T R E N D S The question remains: What will be the catalyst for systemic change? Willit be legal pressures on employers facing lawsuits over the cost of healthbenefits? American consumers demanding transparency and more value?The fact that interest on the Federal government’s $35T in debt will soonbe the largest expenditure in the Federal budget? The $4.5T (and growing) health economy creates more data than anyother part of the U.S. economy. New findings emerge daily but thechallenge for health economy stakeholders is to synthesize seeminglyunrelated—and often misconstrued—data to understand their strategicand tactical implications. TheHealth Economy Trends Reportoffers insight into eight data-drivenmacro trends that are either intensifying or emerging, revealing theimportance of optimizing value, as opposed to maximizing value. Asyou delve into the trends, I encourage you to reflect on how theincreasing need to optimize value for your customers will influence yoursector–provider, payer, life sciences, etc.–and your organization. As a long-time admirer of MaryMeeker’sannualInternet Trends Report, Ihave long believed that our industry needed an analogous, data-drivenview of emerging healthcare trends. This longstanding idea became areality with the debut of the first annualTrends Shaping the HealthEconomy Report(“Health Economy Trends Report”) in 2021. As a health economist, I study healthcare through the lens of demand,supply and yield. Even though markets for healthcare products andservices deviate from what economists would call the perfect market, thecore principles ofeconomicsoffer a valuable framework for examiningtrends in the health economy. Supporting each trend are a handful of data-driven stories about thepast, present and future. This year, we have provided additional contextfor each of the eight macro trends as a way for health economystakeholders to understand how to develop actionable strategies inresponse to the health economy’s evolution. How do national trends varyby region and CBSA? Are certain patients disproportionately affected?How do trends in the commercially insured population compare to allpayers, public and private? The answers to these questions, and more,are available to Compass+ research subscribers. Previous editions of theHealth Economy Trends Reportconcluded that: 1)healthcare is a negative-sum game;2)every part of the health economy—from payers and providers to lifesciences and new entrants—will be impacted by reduced yield; and3)the winners in healthcare’s negative-sum game will be those whodeliver value for money. I hope thisHealth Economy Trends Reportwill cause you to reflect on thefuture of the U.S. health economy and question longstanding, ifunsuccessful, policies and paradigms like “value-based payment.” Whilethis report is not intended to provide all the answers, you should use it asa tool to ask the right questions. What trends have you not considered,and how will they impact the markets that your organization serves? Whatchanges will your organization have to make to deliver more value formoney relative to your current and future competitors? In this fourth installment of ourHealth Economy Trends Report, weexpand upon our foundational conclusions from the past three years toexamine in more detailthe concept of value. Not every health economystakeholder thinks about value, and those who do define it differently.Even so, every knowledgeable stakeholder must acknowledge that theinputs of the U.S. healthcare system, as measured by cost, exceed theoutputs, as measured by the actual value or benefits received byAmericans. Election years are a prompt to reflect on what the American voter valuesmost in the context of historic U.S. health policy decisions. Survey datareveal that many Americans feel helpless, frustrated, paralyzed andimpoverished by the state of the healthcare system. Sanjula Jain, Ph.D.Chief Research OfficerTrilliant Health P.S. Throughout the report, you will see this symbol.It represents additional, related research available in our Compass+ subscription. Trend 1:Healthcare System10 Table ofContents Trend 2:Health Status27 Trend 4:Technological Advancements68 Trend 5:Supply Constraints86 Trend 6:Forced Consumerism106 Trend 7:Lower-Cost Settings124 Trend 8:Value For Money143 Conclusion156 Methodology160 I N T R O D U C T I O N Defining Value for Money in Healthcare The U.S. health economy is the most expensive health system in theworld, underwritten by the Federal government, state Medicaid programsand employers. Healthcare providers depend on commercialreimbursement rates from employer-sponsored plans to cross-subsidizeinadequate payments from Medicare and Medicaid. OECD countries like Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany,Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K. Americans havehigher ra