AI智能总结
未经许可,禁止转载基础化工2025年07月13日推荐 (维持)证券分析师:杨晖邮箱:yanghui@hcyjs.com执业编号:S0360522050001证券分析师:郑轶邮箱:zhengyi@hcyjs.com执业编号:S0360522100004证券分析师:王鲜俐邮箱:wangxianli@hcyjs.com执业编号:S0360522080004证券分析师:吴宇邮箱:wuyu1@hcyjs.com执业编号:S0360524010002证券分析师:申起昊邮箱:shenqihao@hcyjs.com执业编号:S0360525030001证券分析师:陈俊新邮箱:chenjunxin@hcyjs.com执业编号:S0360525040001行业基本数据股票家数(只)491总市值(亿元)45,081.30流通市值(亿元)40,032.66相对指数表现%1M6M绝对表现4.0%16.0%相对表现0.3%8.6%相关研究报告《能源周报(20250630-20250706):OPEC+8月继续增产54.8万桶/日,本周油价震荡运行》2025-07-0624/0724/0924/1225/0225/042024-07-15~2025-07-11基础化工沪深300华创证券研究所 钩。 -10%1%13%25% 占比%0.064.264.8112M25.0%8.0%25/07 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号:证监许可(2009)1210号目录一、投资策略.....................................................................................................................8二、主要化工品价格及价差变化...................................................................................12三、基础化工细分子行业跟踪.......................................................................................17(一)行业跟踪—轮胎:近期原材料成本低位运行...................................................17(二)行业跟踪—农化:关注近期农药小品种涨价+化肥刚需品种属性.................21(三)行业跟踪—磷化工:政策利好出台,关注磷化工行业格局变化....................28(四)行业跟踪—煤化工:关注新疆煤化工的产业投资机会...................................34(五)行业跟踪—氯碱:近期PVC及烧碱价格以震荡为主......................................39(六)行业追踪—聚氨酯:本周聚合MDI价格下跌..................................................44(七)行业追踪—民营大炼化:本周原油价格上涨,PX价格下跌.........................47(八)行业追踪—C2、C3及C4:本周乙烯价格下跌,丙烯价格下跌....................50(九)行业追踪—钛白粉:本周钛白粉价格下跌.......................................................54(十)行业跟踪—化纤:本周涤纶长丝价格下降.......................................................56(十一)行业跟踪—氟化工:本周制冷剂R22、R32价格上涨................................60(十二)行业追踪—硅化工:本周金属硅、有机硅价格均上涨...............................63(十三)行业跟踪—改性塑料:本周市场平稳运行...................................................65(十四)行业追踪—食品及饲料添加剂:本周VA价格下跌,VE价格下跌..........67四、交易数据...................................................................................................................71五、风险提示...................................................................................................................73 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号:证监许可(2009)1210号图表目录图表1本周华创化工行业指数73.48,环比-1.91%,同比-25.17%................................12图表2行业价差百分位为过去10年的0.74%,环比-0.42%..........................................12图表3细分行业价格百分位一览.......................................................................................12图表4细分行业价差百分位一览.......................................................................................13图表5细分行业库存百分位一览.......................................................................................13图表6细分行业开工率一览...............................................................................................13图表7本周布伦特原油价格上涨(美元/桶)..................................................................14图表8本周动力煤价格持平(元/吨)..............................................................................14图表9本周价格涨跌幅居前的品种...................................................................................14图表10本周价差涨跌幅居前的品种.................................................................................16图表11本周开工率最高/涨幅居前的品种........................................................................16图表12中国出口集装箱运费变化.....................................................................................20图表13泰国出口集装箱运费变化.....................................................................................20图表14本周华创化工轮胎原材料指数环比-0.48%..........................................................20图表15本周天然橡胶价格环比上升.................................................................................20图表16本周炭黑价格环比下降.........................................................................................21图表17本周国内半钢胎/全钢胎开工率环比上行/小幅上行...........................................21图表18国内乘用车5月销量同比+13.35%.......................................................................21图表19国内商用车5月销量同比-1.76%..........................................................................21图表20本周化肥价格分位数40.7%,价差分位数24.2%...............................................25图表21本周化肥库存分位数34.2%,平均开工率58.8%...............................................25图表22本周农药价格分位数0%.......................................................................................26图表23本周农药库存分位数44%.....................................................................................26图表24本周农药原药指数环比上涨.................................................................................26图表25本周除草剂指数环比上涨.....................................................................................26图表26本周杀虫剂原药指数环比下跌.............................................................................26图表27本周杀菌剂指数环比下跌.....................................................................................26图表28本周草甘膦价格环比上涨(万/吨)....................................................................27图表29本周联苯菊酯价格环比持平(万/吨)................................................................27图表30代森锰锌价格环比持平(万/吨)........................................................................27图表31本周大豆现货价格环比不变,玉米现货价格环比小幅下行(元/吨