黄金的熊市是什么：历史视角

Introduction Highlights Gold’srecentbull run has attracted tremendous attention.After bottoming on3November2022,thegoldpricehasmore thandoubledfrom US$1,429/oz toUS$3,287/oz, equivalent toa30%compound annual growth rate.1Thishas beensupported byconsistent central bank purchasesas well as soaringgeopoliticaland, more recently,traderisks;all thishas dwarfedthenegativeimpactfromrisingreal rates amidrate hikesby central banksand coolinginflationbetweenNovember2022 and August 2024.2 Gold has experienced an extendedperiod of bull run since late 2022,prompting questions aboutpotential catalysis forchange intrend. As the gold pricehas continued tobreak new highs,investorshavebecomewaryof potential risks.Andwe havestudiedpreviousbearruns for goldandanalysed the factorsthat could lead tomid-or longer-termpullbacks,basedonhistorical patterns(Table1). Cooling risks,rising opportunitycosts and easingmomentummight curb gold’scurrent strength,while structuralchangesin golddemandor supplymay bringlonger-term weakness. In summary,the gold price may experience mid-termweaknessif geopoliticaland trade risks globally ease, orhigheropportunity costsiftheUSdollar andTreasury yields rise(Table2, p3).Slowing central bank gold purchase and retailinvestmentdemandcould also lead tomid-term gold price adjustment. While we don’t consider these likely, longer-term pullbackscouldcome frommorepersistentand structural demand shifts which may lead tonotabledeclines in gold’s investment demand from both institutions and retail investorsas well asrapid rises in supply(Table3, p4). Chart1:Gold price bear runs in historyareusuallyassociatedwith rising real yields and a stronger dollar Whatis a bear case for gold? Gold price performance, US 10-year realTreasury yield andthe dollar* Demand and supply ultimately determine gold prices.Ouranalysisshows that investment,through goldETFs, futuresor over-the-counter spot transactions, dominates gold pricechanges in the short-to-mediumterm. And these sources ofnet demand are driven by factors such as the performancesof competing assets, changes in risk appetite, geopoliticsand inflation concerns. In the longer term, consumers,buy-and-holdinvestors–from individuals to large institutions–andtechnologydemandbecome as important in setting prices. Thepredominant driveriseconomic growth. To sum up,we typically categorise gold’s key drivers into fourgroups: Economic expansion, which drivesdemand forjewellery,technology and long-term savings Risk and uncertainty,whichoften boost investment demandfor gold as a safe haven Opportunity cost, which relates tointerest rates andcurrency,influencinginvestor attitudes towards gold Momentum,ascapital flows, positioning and price trendscan ignite or dampen gold's performance Chart2:Gold’s pullbacks often coincidewithrisinginvestor risk appetite And based on this,we aim to summarisesimilaritiesin gold’sbear runsand make assumptions of the future. The gold price bear runs and equity performance* Lessons from history Gold, like all assets,has its ups and downs. History showsclear bull and bearruns.3Since thecollapse of the BrettonWoods system in 1971, when gold's fixed exchange rate withthe dollar ceased, gold has undergonefivemajor pullbacks(Table1,p1andAppendix,p5). After examining each of thesebear runs,we found somecommon ground.For instance,almost all major goldpullbackswerein main, orinpart, related torisingopportunity costs related toreal ratesandthedollar(Chart1)–sometimesdriven byabooming economy,and sometimesbyrapid US Fed rate hikes.Thisisanobviousoutcome,asrising opportunity costs andstrong economicperformanceoften suppressinvestor interest in holding goldand lift riskappetite. Cooling riskand uncertaintywasanotherthemethatfeaturedthroughoutgold’s major pullbacks(Chart2).During most ofthefive gold pricepullbackswe observed easing geopoliticaltensions, strong economicperformanceand cooling inflationin major markets. And these usually come with equity bullruns, diverting investor attention away from safe-havenassets such as gold. In some cases,changes insupplyand demandconditionsweighed heavily on gold.Decelerating momentumfromsustainedcentral bank gold salesandgold ETFoutflowscontributed to gold’spastbear runs. Potentialshort-and long-termcatalysts Conversely, a more protractedpullback in the gold pricewould need to come from a structural shift thateitherundermines demand orsignificantly boosts supply.In thiscontext, welayoutfourthemesthat, whileunlikely,coulddrivegold towardsa longer-term bear run(Table3).Theseinclude: Wecreatedhypotheticalscenarios thatcoulddampen gold’scurrent momentum(Table2). Based on historical guidancewehavemade three assumptions that could reduce safe-haven demand for gold, push up opportunity costs ofholding gold, orslowphysical gold demand–allof whichwould likelylead tomid-termgold price weakness. •A dryingupofcentral bank demand•Competition from other assets•A shiftin tastes by consumers•Asignificant increase