基里巴斯：选定问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperonKiribatiwas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund asbackground documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It isbased on the information available at the time it was completed onJune 18, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public fromInternational Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. KIRIBATI SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByAsia and PacificDepartment Prepared ByNi Wang (APD),George Cui, and Azar Sultanov(both RES). CONTENTS STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE IN KIRIBATI WITH PUBLIC INVESTMENT________2 A.Introduction_______________________________________________________________________2B.The Macroeconomic Implications Of Resilience-Building Investment______________5C.Policy Discussions_________________________________________________________________9 BOX 1. Climate Risks in Kiribati____________________________________________________________4 FIGURES 1. GDP and Debt Projections by Scenario_____________________________________________72. Private Investment by Scenario_____________________________________________________73. Comparison of Scenarios with and without Efficiency-Inducing PFM Reforms_____8 References__________________________________________________________________________11 STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE IN KIRIBATIWITHPUBLIC INVESTMENT Kiribati, acollection ofremotearchipelagosofmostlylow-lying atolls, faces significant risks fromnatural hazards andan existential risk fromrising sea levels.This paper explores the critical needs forpublic investment in climate-resilient infrastructure to safeguard the nation's long-term prosperity andassesses the macroeconomic implications of such investments.To build moderate resilience, carefullydesigned fiscalpoliciesand enhanced public investment efficiencyare needed toalleviate the fiscalburden, maximize output gains from better infrastructure,and crowd in private investment, whilemaintaining debt sustainability. A.Introduction 1.Kiribatimostlyconsists of low-lying atolls and isexposedto natural hazards.TheRepublic of Kiribati is acollection ofarchipelagosmade of 32 atolls and one island that occupy avast area of the central Pacific Ocean.Most of the land is less than two meters above sea level andtends tohave narrow long shapes.The most densely populated area inSouth Tarawa isapproximately 500 m wide.High exposure and sensitivity to the oceanic environment make Kiribatisusceptible to storm surges,overwash, and,over the long run,risks of inundation due tosea-levelrise.Freshwater lenses, an important watersupply source forKiribati, are vulnerable to saltwaterintrusion that can occurwithstormand king tide.Overwash on the low-lyingatollscansignificantlyundermine the soil’s fertilityand jeopardize food security.1 2.Kiribati’s remoteness, weak capacity, and limited economic basecompound thecountry’svulnerabilityto natural hazards.Kiribati is the sixth most remote country in the world.The country spans 3,441,810𝑘𝑚2of ocean (an area as large as one third of the United States) buttotal land area is equal to only 811𝑘𝑚2(similar to Singapore).Approximately half ofthetotalpopulation of 130,000 lives in the atoll of South Tarawa, where the capital Tarawa is located.Kiritimati Island, the largest coral atoll, is located approximately 3,000 kilometers east of Tarawa, adistance thattakesaboutoneweekto cover with cargoships.Geographicalremoteness anddispersion compound the difficulties intimely delivery ofdisaster responses. The densely populatedatolls are vulnerable to public health challenges posed by natural disasters, including sanitation andvector-borne diseases.Kiribatihas limitedproductive capacity andis highly dependent on importsoffood and othergoods and services, adding to its vulnerability toexogenous events. 3.Kiribati has made progress on climate adaptation, through cooperation withdevelopment partners and passage ofrelevantlegislations.With support from developmentpartners,significant investment isunderway tostrengthen theclimateresilience of transport infrastructureand to upgrade water and sanitation infrastructure.2The Kiribati Disaster RiskManagement and Climate Change Act(2019)sets outthe legal frameworkandestablishes theKiribati National Expert Group (KNEG) on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management as aprincipal technical oversight entity.The Kiribati Joint Implementation Plan (KJIP 2019-2028)outlinesstrategic targets for adaptation.TherevisedBuilding Act and anewbuilding code areexpected totake effect in 2025,setting out provisions to promote climate resilienceinbuildings. 4.High-quality public spending to invest in the climate resilientinfrastructure will becritical for Kiribati’s long-term prosperity.Despitepublicdevelopment expenditureaveraging47percent of GDPper yearduring 2013-2019, K