能源宏观的重大转变

A SeismicShiftto the EnergyMacro With Israel targeting Iran's oil and gas infrastructure over theweekend, OPEC spare capacity will be more easily absorbed ifIran's export capabilities are impaired, potentially pullingforward the oil bull thesis. Could this kick-start the upstreamspending cycle in 2026? U.S. Energy Services & TechnologyNEUTRAL U.S. Energy Services & TechnologyJ. David Anderson, CFA+1 212 526 4016jdavid.anderson@barclays.comBCI, US Eddie Kim+1 212 526 9920eddie.kim@barclays.comBCI, US We appreciate your5-star votein the2025Extel All-America Research Surveyin theOil Servicescategory.View our analysts » Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » This could change everything.The Energy macro has been dismal the past 2 years with oilprices range bound under the burden of 2 mmbpd of OPEC spare capacity combined with tepidglobal demand, which in turn slowed down the upstream spending cycle. With OPECannouncing it is bringing barrels back to the market on three separate occasions this yeardespite many signs of global oversupply, the bear case for oil markets (and Energy Services) wasa clear case to make, the only question was when it would bottom and how deep would it be?But with the events in Iran over the past several days, the Energy macro is quickly evolving asIran's oil and gas infrastructure is now being targeted. If this results in a sustained impairment toIran's oil export capacity, it could be the supply shock that reignites the upstream spendingcycle and pulls investor capital back into Energy. Andre Schlatter+1 212 526 6368andre.schlatter@barclays.comBCI, US •OPEC spare capacity can now come onto the market.As we have previously written, Iranhas been exporting 1.5-2.0 mmbpd for the past several years and during the prior Trumpadministration, the "maximum sustainable pressure" policy ultimately reduced exports towell under 1 mmbpd. In this case, Iran's exports could be impaired for years depending onhow the next several weeks play out...which can now be filled with 2 mmbpd of OPEC sparecapacity that is being brought back onto the market. •Pulls forward the bull thesis on oil (and Energy Services?).A week ago, we expected oilprices to weaken further as more OPEC barrels came onto the market but by the fall OPECwould have "rippedoffthe band aid", removing the capacity overhang. Assuming demandheld up fairly well, a case could have been made for higher oil prices and higher upstreamspending with little non-OPEC supply coming online in 2026 and 2027. Fast forward to todayand suddenly, the OPEC spare capacity could be absorbed much faster than expected,potentially creating a supply shock kick-starting the second half of the cycle. Recall wedowngraded the Energy Services sector to Neutral last December on the view of the upstreamspending cycle in a plateau. Now however, 2026 looks a lot more promising. •NAM spending declines won't be nearly as bad, but does US production still roll over by4Q?We've been waiting for another shoe to drop in onshore NAM, but if $70/bbl WTI issustainable, E&Ps will think twice before dropping any rigs or pressure pumping crews. As oflast week, we thought upstream spending in NAM was poised to fall 15-20% y/y this year withanother downward earnings revision coming to the NAM-levered names. Now? All we know isthe downside is less bad than it was before. The rig count has now fallen 34 rigs over the past4 weeks and we now expect another 5-10 rigs to decline before the trough, the question is ifUS production still rolls over by 4Q? •Expect capital flows into energy this week as funds scramble to unwind "underweightenergy" trade.The generalist portfolio manager has had many reasons to be underweightenergy the past 2 years: weak oil prices, too much OPEC spare capacity, tepid demand, andlack of earnings growth. We certainly don't blame them, the past 2 years have created a lot ofapathy among investors. But if this is indeed a structural supply shock and oil prices continueto climb, at the very least funds will move to an equal weight position. In our view,SLBis thepreferred name to add to the portfolio: quality, technology, execution and trading at under 7x'26E EBITDA. •In this rally, HAL (5.8x EBITDA)& NAM-levered Smid Caps (PTEN,PUMP,LBRT) tooutperform. Shorter-cycle oil (Permian) services will benefit most from higher oil prices(higher beta), all are trading at trough valuation levels. Remains to be seen how E&Ps willbehave, but if oil prices hold, estimates may even revise higher for 2H. FIGURE 1. Iranian Oil Exports (mb/d) In Case You Missed it Last Week #1: US onshore oil rig count declines by 1 rig w/w.The steep declines in the oil rig count inthe US onshore market took a breather last week, declining by just 1 rig w/w to 428 rigs (total USonshore rig count down 1 rig w/w to 543 rigs). However, over the past four weeks (since May16th) the oil rig count has declined by 34 rigs. We previously expected a further decline of 15-20rigs over the next 3-4 weeks but now with