汇丰银行内部观点：2025年6月：展望下半年

Multi-AssetGlobal June2025:Lookinginto H2 ◆Tariffs keep clouding the economic data; uncertaintypersists Harriet Smith*Analyst, Multi-Asset StrategyHSBC Bank plcharriet.smith@hsbc.com+44 20 7992 0164 ◆Wehaverevisedour year-end forecast for the 10-yearUSTreasury yield to 4.30% Max Kettner*, CFAChief Multi-Asset StrategistHSBC Bank plcmaximilian.l.kettner@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 5045 ◆WehaveupdatedourFX forecasts to extend our USDnegative view Our key views and changes over the pastmonth Janet HenryGlobal Chief EconomistHSBC Bank plcjanet.henry@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 6711 ◆Economics:Progress on tradedealsstabilisedtheweakeningsurveydata in Maybut the hard data may be starting to soften at a time when fiscal concerns haverevived and the future course of US import tariffs hinges on the courts of appeal(Unfolding dynamics). The FOMC continues to face a challenging outlook amidupside risks to unemployment,coupled withupside risks to inflation.We still expect75bp in rate cuts by end-2026, but now starting with 25bp this September rather thanJune (June FOMC preview).Elsewhere, we think June’s ECB cut likely marks thelast for some time (ECB Announcement (Jun)). In EM, alongside Europe,GEMsequity funds are attracting inflows. This trend might persist in the short term,supported by the substantial discount of EMequitiesvstheUS (GEMs in the week). Dr. Murat UlgenGlobal Head of Emerging Markets ResearchHSBC Bank plcmuratulgen@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6782 Paul MackelGlobal Head of FX ResearchHSBC Bank plcpaulmackel@hsbc.com+44 203 268 3252 Song Jin Lee, CFAEuropean & US Credit StrategistHSBC Bank plcsongjin.lee@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 5259 Fixed income (rates & credit):Recent developments, both in terms of US economicdata and the ongoing Republican budget reconciliation bill process, have reduced thescope for bond yields to fall inH2. Greater-than-expected resilience inlabourmarketshas led to a wait-and-see approach to rate cuts from the Fed.Consequently, we haverevised our US Treasury forecasts across the curve(June FOMC preview). Alastair Pinder, CFAHead EM and Global Equity StrategistHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.alastair.pinder@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5972 FX:The USD is in such a costly place, and many are looking to leave as policyuncertainty lingers and structural pressures build. Theline to check-out is growing,even though one knows you can never fullyleave (Currency Outlook). For EMFX,the USD remains the key driver, which is feeding into a ‘Goldilocks’ setting for manyEM currencies (Emerging Markets FX Roadmap). James SteelChief Precious Metals AnalystHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.james.steel@us.hsbc.com+1 646 867 5600 Jonathan Brandt, CFAAnalyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining, Pulp & PaperHSBCSecurities (USA) Inc.jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4499 Equity strategy:The tactical outlook for global equities still looks supportive giventhelight positioning and upside for earnings. But the medium-term risk/reward looksmoreunbalanced. Rotation of foreign flows out of US continues, which could supportinternational equity markets (Global Equity Strategy).Risks from escalation in theMiddle East are appearing for global equity markets,but it remains too early toassess the full scope of the potential disruption (Iran-Israel Escalation). For GEMs,we see four key risk channels: oil prices, freight and trade, geopolitical risk premiums,and tourism (GEMs Equity Strategy). * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations ◆Multi-asset strategy:We head into H2 keeping our risk-on stance and stay OWequities/HY/EMD,whileUW DM rates. Subdued sentiment&positioning, potentialpositive activity surprises, renewed optimism around AI,and the weaker USD shouldhelprisk assetsin the coming months(Multi-Asset Direction,Multi-Asset Bulletin). HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC GlobalResearch at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Key forecasts & views G10 exchange rate forecasts Fixed income bond yields (%) Equity sector and marketweightingsEurope Fixed income (rates) Equity strategy Current thematic publications Nine themes talking points We examine China’s pension system and the bold measures needed tobridge a funding gap. Inaddition, we explore the latest developments on US tariffs, the key takeaways from recent tradedeals,US clean tech,and thenet-zero transition (seeNine Themes Talking Points, 2 June). Energy Transition:China Energy Storage Wehaveraisedour 2025-26 global energy storage system (ESS) installation forecasts on betterESS economics. Wesee grid parity approaching for solar/wind plus ESS on a global scale(seeChina Energy Storage, 4 June). Future Transport: EV Global Roadmap EVs enjoyed a robust sta