消费者检查点：谨慎收缩但财务稳健

Consumer Checkpoint: Hunkered down, but healthy 09 May 2025 Key takeaways •April card spending per household was up 1% year-over-year, following the 1.1% rise in March, according to Bank of Americaaggregated credit and debit card data. Seasonally-adjusted spending per household was flat month-over-month. •The gradual easing in consumer spending momentum is not just due to lower inflation - the growth in the number oftransactions has also cooled. Consumers appear to be pulling back particularly on bigger ticket discretionary services like airlinetickets and lodging. •Lower-income households' spending growth is below that of their middle- or higher-income counterparts. In our view, thisreflects their relatively weaker after-tax wages and salaries growth. However, lower oil prices may bring some relief. •The financial position of most consumers appears sound. One sign of that: more consumers are paying off their credit cardbalances every month, according to Bank of America credit card data. However, we see some increase in the share ofhouseholds making only the minimum payment on their credit cards, suggesting building pressures for some households. Consumer Checkpoint is a regular publication from Bank of America Institute. It aims to provide a holistic and real-time estimate of USconsumers’spending and their financial well-being, leveraging the depth and breadth of Bank of America proprietary data. Such data is notintended to be reflective or indicative of, and should not be relied upon as, the results of operations, financial conditions or performance ofBank of America. Consumers’ momentum remainsCredit and debit card spending per household increased 1% year-over-year (YoY) in April after a gain of 1.1% YoY in March, according to Bank of America aggregated card data. Seasonally adjusted (SA) spending per household was flat month-over-month (MoM), with the seasonally adjusted annualized growth rate (SAAR) remaining at 1.6% again for April (Exhibit 1). Exhibit1: Consumers continued to show moderate forward momentum, with spending up 1.6% on an annualized basis in April 2025Total credit and debit card spending growth per household, based on Bank of America card data (monthly, MoM%, seasonally adjusted (SA)and 3-month moving average, SAAR, SA) Consumers are holding off on big ticket travel and leisure spendingDoes the easing in consumers’spending momentum this year reflect cooling inflation or a slowing rate of growth in the number of their purchases and transactions? Bank of America aggregated card data indicates it may be the latter. In fact, while YoY transaction growth per household has been largely positive, the growth rate cooled in 2024 relative to 2023,partly as the post-Covid burst in activity cooled. And it may continue to cool further, though the data has been fairly noisy at thestart of this year due to calendar effects such as the timing of Easter and the presence of a leap year in 2024 (Exhibit 2).Additionally, on a seasonally adjusted basis, data indicates that consumers do continue to have some forward momentum thisyear, even if it is at a more measured pace. Exhibit2:The YoY growth in transactions has been slowing, suggesting some gradual moderation in forward momentumTotal credit and debit card transaction growth per household, based on Bank of America card data (monthly, YoY%, non-seasonally adjusted (NSA)) and (monthly, MoM%, SA) Interestingly, retail purchases (excluding gas) eased back in April after rising earlier this year (Exhibit 3). Why? Consumers mayhave been front loading purchases of durables to get ahead of potential tariff-related price increases–a trend that increasinglyran its course over April (read more about this topic in ourApril spending update publication). While softer over the first quarter of 2025, services purchases showed some recovery in April. But while smaller ticket“nice tohave”discretionary service-related spending (e.g., dining out) improved in March and April, bigger ticket discretionary outlays onairfare and lodging continued to decline, possibly due to declining consumer confidence and worries about the economic outlook(Exhibit 4). Exhibit4:… while airline and lodging purchases continued todecline Transactions per household for select categories, based on Bank ofAmerica card data (monthly, index 2024 = 100, SA) Transactions per household for select categories, based on Bank ofAmerica card data (monthly, index 2024 = 100, SA) Spending growth is easing across all income cohortsSome slowdown in spending growth is consistent across income cohorts since the beginning of the year, though the spending growth of lower-income households is weakest (Exhibit 5). In our view, this partly reflects relative softness in their after-taxwage growth. In fact, lower-income households saw an after-tax wage gain of just 1.5% YoY in April, a slight improvement fromthe previous month, but still a lower rate than the past two years, according to Bank of Americ