2025年全球半导体行业展望

Chip sales are set to soar in 2025, led by generative AI and data center build-outs, evenas demand斤。m PC and mobile mar走ets may remain muted The semiconductor industry had a robust 2024, with expected double-digit (19%) growth, and sales of US$627 billion for the year.1 But that’S even better than the earlier forecast of US$611 billion.2 And 2025 could be even better, with predicted sales of US$697 billion,3 reaching a new all-time high, and well ontrack to reach the widely accepted aspirational goal of US$1 trillion in chip sales by 2030. This suggeststhe industry only needs to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.5% between 2025 and 2030 (figure 1).4 Assuming the industry continues to grow at that rate, it could reach US$2 trillion in 2040. The stock market is often a leading indicator of industry performance: As of mid-December 2024, thecombined market capitalization of the top 10 global chip companies was US$6.5 trillion-up 93% fromUS$3.4 trillion in mid-December 2023 and 235% higher than the US$1.9 trillion seen in mid-November 2022.5 That said, it is worth noting that“average”chip stock performance in the last two years has beena “tale of two markets”：Companies involved in the generative AI chip market outperformed that average,while companies without that exposure (automotive, compute鸟smartphone, and communications semiconductor companies, for example) underperformed.6 One driver of industry sales has been the demand for gen AI chips: a mix of CPUs, GPUs, data centercommunications chips, memory, power chips, and more. Deloit旬’s 2024 TMT Predictions report predicted that those gen AI chips collectively would be worth “more than" US$50 billion,7 which was amuch too conservative forecast, as the market was likely worth over US$125 billion in 2024-and represented over 20% of total chip sales for the year.8 At the time of publication, we predict that gen AI chips will be over US$150 billion in 2025.9 Further, Lisa Su, chief executive officer at AMD, moved herestimate for the total addressable market for AI accelerator chips up to US$500 billion in 2028-a number larger than sales for the entire chip industry in 2023.10 View in Article ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors wish to thank the following Deloitte colleagues for sharing their insights and perspectives:Dan Hamling, Nina Zhang, Gillian Crossan, Se咆ey Shchemelev, Alan Huang, Dolly Zhang, Tomey Jiantao Lin,Steve Fineberg, Jeff Loucks, Brandon Kulik, and Christie Simons. Additionally, they would like to thank Gautham Du忧for his design support, Shannon Rothacher and AlisonZink for marketing and PR support, and Michelle Dollinger and Shubham Oza for helping with projectmanagement. Thanks also to the Deloitte Insights team (Andy Bayiates, Prodyut Borah, Molly Piersol) fortheir support to help us publish this report. Cover image by: Jaime Austin; Adobe Stock