印度尼西亚市场日报（2025年7月4日）

July 4, 2025 MarketReview JCIendsflatamidfiscaluncertaintyandsectorweakness.USstockscontinuedtheirupwardmomentum,withtheS&P500andNasdaqboth closingat fresh record highs.The technology sector led the gains,rising 1.1%,buoyedby news that the Trump administration had lifted restrictions on theexportofchipdesignsoftwaretoChina.Europeanmarketsalsoendedthedayinpositiveterritory,supported by a stronger-than-expected US.jobs report.AccordingtotheUSBureauofLaborStatistics,theeconomyadded147,000jobslastmonth,exceedingtheforecastof110,000,asignofresilienceintheworld’slargesteconomy.In response,Asian markets opened on a positive note thismorning,astheupbeatjobsdatahelpedeaseconcernsoverapotentialslowdownintheUSeconomy.Reflectingthisimprovedsentiment,theCMEFedWatchToolshowsthattheprobabilityofa25basispointratecutattheJulyFedmeetinghasdroppedtojust4.7%,downfrom23.8%thepreviousday. TheJCI closed slightly lower by-3.19 points(-0.05%)to 6,878.05.This mildcorrectioncame just before market close,despite the JCI trading in positiveterritorythroughout most of the session.The downturn was largely driven byweaknessin banking and mining stocks,which weighed on the broader index.Sentimentin the Indonesian stock market was shaped by a mix of fiscaldevelopments,energydynamics,andcorporateactions.Akeypointofattentionwasthe government's preparation for the 2026 State Budget(RAPBN),whichcomesamidheightenedfiscalpressuresinthecurrentyear.Economicgrowthfor2025is projectedin therange of 4.7%to 5%,slightly below the State Budgettargetof 5.2%,reflecting a more cautious outlook.Meanwhile,inflation isexpectedtoease,projectedat2.2%to2.6%,lowerthanthepreviousassumptionof2.5%,signalingpotentialpricestabilityahead.Thebond marketalso showedsignsof stabilization,with the yield on 10-year Government Securities(SBN)projectedto remain between 6.8%and 7.3%,closely aligning with the currentrealizationof 6.9%.Additionally,the Rupiah strengthened relative to the APBNassumptionofIDR16,000perUSdollar,withtheexchangeratenowprojectedtorangebetweenIDR16,300andIDR16,800in2025.Earlyinthesession,JCIwasliftedby positive global cues,particularly optimism stemming from tradeagreementsbetween the US and Vietnam,which were seen as constructive forglobaltradeandemergingmarkets.Furthermore,domesticsentimentwasbuoyedbytheDPRRI’ssupportforusingExcessBudgetBalance(SAL)fundsasafiscalcushion,potentiallyeasingconcernsoverbudgetdeficits anddebtsustainability.Globally,the US Dollar index continued its downtrend following a weaker-than-expectedADP employment report,which fueled speculation of a near-terminterestratecutbytheFederalReserve.MarketexpectationsforaJulyratecutincreasedfrom 20%to 25%,adding to the momentum for capital flows intoemergingmarkets,includingIndonesia. Source: IDX TradingValue:IDR7.99trillionForeignNetSell:IDR31.31billion CompanyNews PTIndomobilSuksesInternasionalTbk(IMAS)IMASthrough its subsidiary PT IMG Sejahtera Langgeng(IMGSL),has entered Source: IDX intoajointventureagreementwithZDEnergyPte.,Ltd.tojointlyownPTIndoZeedaEnergi(IZE).Undertheagreement,IMASwillacquireallofIMGSL’ssharesinIZE,resultinginIMASholding60%ofthetotalpaid-upcapital,whileZDEnergywillsubscribetonewlyissuedsharesandholdtheremaining40%.IZEissettooperatein various sectors including electrical equipment and motor vehiclecomponentmanufacturing,electricity sales,electrical installation services,andwholesaleandretailtradeofautomotiveandmotorcycleparts.Source:Kontan PTPPTbk(PTPP)PTPPhassetanewcontracttargetofIDR28.5trillionfor2025,butthegoalmay facechallenges dueto ongoing pressure inthe construction sector and reducedstatebudget allocations.As of May 2025,the company has secured IDR 7.65trillionin new contracts,representing only 26.9%of the annual target.Themajorityofthesecontractsareconcentratedinportprojects(35%),followedbybuildings(33%),roadsandbridges(25%),dams(4%),andirrigation(3%).Source:Kontan Source: IDX Key Company Source: Bloomberg Stocks, Bonds, Foreign Exchange