金工周报（20250630-20250704）：形态学短期看多指数减少，后市或先抑后扬

金工周报2025年07月06日证券分析师：王小川电话：021-20572528邮箱：wangxiaochuan@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360517100001相关研究报告《华创金工周报（20250622-20250627）：择时模型以看多为主，后市或乐观向上》2025-06-28华创证券研究所 性。 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录一、市场回顾与展望...............................................................................................................4（一）指数角度...............................................................................................................41、宽基角度.................................................................................................................42、行业角度.................................................................................................................5（二）基金角度.............................................................................................................101、股票与混合型基金收益.......................................................................................102、ETF角度...............................................................................................................103、本周成立基金情况...............................................................................................11（三）大师策略监控.....................................................................................................11（四）VIX指数监控.....................................................................................................11（五）形态学监控.........................................................................................................121、形态识别系列本周组合表现一览.......................................................................122、杯柄形态本周表现...............................................................................................123、双底形态本周表现...............................................................................................144、本周实现突破的个股...........................................................................................15二、市场热点与机会.............................................................................................................18（一）下周新发基金.....................................................................................................18（二）风险个股提醒.....................................................................................................201、形态风险个股.......................................................................................................202、其他风险事件.......................................................................................................21（三）复盘与后市观点.................................................................................................22（四）总结.....................................................................................................................22三、历史观点回顾.................................................................................................................23四、风险提示.........................................................................................................................27 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1常见宽基本周行情.....................................................................................................4图表2宽基短期、中期、长期择时信号展示.....................................................................5图表3行业指数涨跌幅相关性矩阵.....................................................................................6图表4分析师一致预期角度看行业.....................................................................................6图表5部分行业历史仓位展示.............................................................................................8图表6基金绝对仓位.............................................................................................................8图表7基金超低配仓位.........................................................................................................9图表8不同类型基金本周行情...........................................................................................10图表9本周收益前10的ETF基金....................................................................................10图表10大师策略监控.........................................................................................................11图表11 HCVIX最新走势图................................................................................................12图表12杯柄形态组合净值走势.........................................................................................12图表13上周杯柄形态实现突破的个股.............................................................................13图表14双底形态组合净值走势.........................................................................................14图表15上周双底形态实现突破的个股.............................................................................15图表16本周双底形态实现突破的个股.............................................................................15图表17本周杯柄形态实现突破的个股.............................................................................17图表18下周新发基金.........................................................................................................18图表19上周倒杯子形态实现突破个股.............................................................................20图表20下周解禁事件涉及个股..........................