农林牧渔行业周报：再提反“内卷式”竞争，调整优化生猪产能

请仔细阅读本报告末页声明7月1日，中行业走势作者分析师执业证书编号：S0680523070007邮箱：zhangbinmei@gszq.com分析师执业证书编号：S0680524040001邮箱：shenjiayan@gszq.com分析师执业证书编号：S0680523070008邮箱：fanjiamin@gszq.com相关研究1、《农林牧渔：降重效果初显，猪价快速回暖》2025-06-282、《农林牧渔：南美白对虾行业：市场广阔，国产虾养殖行至渐稳》2025-06-243、《农林牧渔：618京东宠物战报发布，行业热度不减》2025-06-22 增持（维持）张斌梅沈嘉妍樊嘉敏2024-112025-03农林牧渔沪深300 P.2内容目录本周观点...............................................................................................................................................................3行情回顾：本周农业跑赢沪深300有1.0个百分点............................................................................................3本周热点........................................................................................................................................................4核心观点........................................................................................................................................................4农业数据跟踪........................................................................................................................................................5生猪：生猪价格上涨，猪肉价格上涨................................................................................................................5家禽：毛鸡价格下跌，鸡苗价格下跌................................................................................................................6大宗：玉米价格上涨，豆粕现货上涨................................................................................................................8风险提示..............................................................................................................................................................11图表目录图表1：本周农业板块跑赢沪深300有1.0个百分点...............................................................................................3图表2：本周渔业板块上涨5.13%.........................................................................................................................3图表3：本周农林牧渔个股涨跌幅一览(%).............................................................................................................3图表4：本周全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价14.82元/kg，较上周上涨3.9%.......................................................................5图表5：本周猪肉平均批发价20.58元/kg，较上周上涨1.7%.................................................................................5图表6：本周自繁自养头均盈利119.72元/头，外购仔猪头均盈利-26.26元/头.........................................................5图表7：本周出售仔猪毛利135.6元/头，较上周减少4.81元/头.............................................................................5图表8：上周全国白条猪肉平均宰后均重90.05公斤，周环比下降0.6%..................................................................6图表9：本周15kg仔猪全国市场价36.77元/公斤，较上周下跌1%........................................................................6图表10：2025年6月第2周父母代鸡苗价格46.4元/套，周环比下跌3.2%............................................................6图表11：本周肉鸡苗价格1.36元/只，较上周下跌20%.........................................................................................6图表12：本周白羽肉鸡平均价6.75元/公斤，较上周下跌3.7%..............................................................................6图表13：本周鸡产品平均价8.45元/公斤，较上周下跌1.2%.................................................................................6图表14：本周父母代种鸡养殖利润-1.39元/只，较上周-0.34元/只.........................................................................7图表15：本周屠宰利润-0.28元/只，较上周增加0.38元/只....................................................................................7图表16：本周817鸡苗平均价0.71元/只，较上周上涨29.1%...............................................................................7图表17：本周817肉杂鸡平均价6.43元/公斤，较上周上涨1.3%..........................................................................7图表18：本周国内玉米现货价2436.27元/吨，较上周上涨0.2%............................................................................8图表19：本周CBOT玉米收盘价421美分/蒲式耳，较上周上涨2.4%.....................................................................8图表20：本周国内小麦现货价2451.06元/吨，较上周上涨0.2%............................................................................8图表21：本周CBOT小麦收盘价556.75美分/蒲式耳，较上周上涨2.9%.................................................................8图表22：本周国内粳稻现货价2892元/吨，较上周持平.........................................................................................8图表23：本周CBOT糙米收盘价1296.5美分/英担，较上周下跌3.9%....................................................................8图表24：本周国内大豆现货价3926.32元/吨，较上周持平.....................................................................................9图表25：本周CBOT大豆收盘价1048.25美分/蒲式耳，较上周上涨2.2%...............................................................9图表26：本周国内豆粕现货价2916.29元/吨，较上周上涨0.5%............................................................................9图表27：本周一级豆油现货价8135元/吨，较上周下跌1.2%.................................................................................9图表28：本周国内菜粕现货价2594.21元/吨，较上周上涨3.0%............................................................................9图表29：本周国内进口四级菜油现货价9782.5元/吨，较上周上涨1.2%................................................................9图表30：本周国内24度棕榈油现货价8635元/吨，较上周上涨0.5%....................................................................10图表31：本周BMD棕榈油收盘价4062林吉特/吨，较上周上