Fuel Oil Market Report Weekly

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTSSummarySupply02Refinery UtilizationGlobal Refinery MaintenanceProduction and Supply 2Import & ExportChinese MarketWeekly Global Import andExport amount: HSFOWeekly Global Import andExport amount: LSFO Price & SpreadAsian MarketEuropean MarketAmerican MarketOTC Swap MarketChinese Future MarketSpread in Physical marketGlobal Fuel Oil CrackGlobal Fuel Oil Swap’sTerm Structure InventoryGlobal Fuel Oil Inventory DemandGlobal Fuel Oil Demand Summary Summary1 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesSummary◆Review：This week, the volatility of global fuel oil prices has decreased, and all premiums caused by geopolitical risks have been swallowedup. The price of HSFO is relatively weaker than that of LSFO, showing a slight downward trend, while the price of LSFO is relatively firm.◆Outlook：This week, the overall fluctuation of fuel oil prices has narrowed, and after the geopolitical risks have been eliminated, the focus ofmarket trading has begun to shift towards fundamentals. Firstly, there were reports over the weekend that OPEC will continuetoincrease thequantity of crude oil production, and crude oil prices may fall at the opening on Monday, which will drive fuel oil prices back.From theperspective of fuel oil itself, there are still large refineries undergoing maintenance in the Middle East and Russia. However,due to theseasonal high levels of gasoline and diesel cracking, the operating rates of these refineries may gradually increase in the future, which willcontinue to stimulate the recovery of HSFO supply. On the demand side, although the demand for ship fuel and power generationhasperformed relatively well, the overall demand for secondary raw materials from refineries in India and China remains low, andthe overalldemand for HSFO lacks incremental growth. Overall, HSFO may continue to decline as supply increases and crude oil prices dragdown. Onthe LSFO end, LSFO exports from Brazil and Japan remain low, and there is a short-term supply gap in the LSFO market compared toHSFO. At the same time, domestic main refineries may not increase LSFO production this month in order to ensure finished oilproduction,and LU valuation will continue to be supported. 4 Supply02 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesRefinery Utilization02-2403-0803-1903-3004-1004-2105-0205-1505-2606-0606-1706-2807-0907-2308-0508-1808-3109-1409-2810-1310-2711-0911-2212-0412-1712-30原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周）2021202220232024201820192020202550556065707580859001-0101-1401-27CDU Utilization of Chinese RefineriesCDU Utilization of Chinese State-owned 02-1002-2303-0703-1803-2904-0904-2005-0105-1205-2306-0306-1406-2507-0607-1907-3108-1308-2609-0809-2110-0410-1911-0111-1311-26原油：主营炼厂：产能利用率：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025Refineries 6Source：Bloomberg，Platts，Kpler，iFinD，GanglianData，GTJA Research01-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2206-0206-1306-2407-0507-1707-3008-1208-2509-0709-2010-0210-1510-2811-10原油：常减压：独立炼厂：产能利用率：中国（周）2016201720182019202020212022202320242025CDU Utilization of Chinese IndependentRefineries 01-0101-1401-2702-10 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesGlobal Refinery Maintenance0200040006000800010000120001400001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27全球CDU装置检修量201820192020202120222023202420255001000150020002500300035000200400600800100012001400160001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27全球加氢裂化装置检修量20182019202020212022202320242025Global Maintenance: CDUGlobal Maintenance: Hydrocracker 01-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-22全球FCC装置检修量2018201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17全球焦化装置检修量201820192020202220232024Global Maintenance: FCCGlobal Maintenance: CokerSource：Bloomberg，Platts，Kpler，iFinD，GanglianData，GTJA Research Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesProduction and Supply01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：产量：中国（月）2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：商品量：中国（月）2021Fuel oil Production amount: ChinaMerchandise amount: China Demand03 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesGlobal Fuel Oil Demand01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：船供：销量：新加坡（月）20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：表观消费量：中国（月）20182022Bunker Fuel Sales amount: SingaporeFuel Oil Demand : China Inventory04 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesGlobal Fuel Oil Inventory0500010000150002000025000300003500001-0101-1301-2602-0802-2103-0503-1603-2704-0704-1804-2905-1105-2306-0306-1406-2507-0607-1908-0108-140