Fuel Oil Market Report Weekly

GTJA Futures Research InstituteKefang Liang（Analyst）Advisor y Code：Z0019111Date：2024年10月20日 CONTENTS Import & Export Supply Price & Spread Inventory Demand Summary Refinery UtilizationGlobal Refinery MaintenanceProduction and Supply Chinese MarketWeekly Global Import andExport amount: HSFOWeekly Global Import andExport amount: LSFO Asian MarketEuropean MarketAmerican MarketOTC Swap MarketChinese Future MarketSpread in Physical marketGlobal Fuel Oil CrackGlobal Fuel Oil Swap’sTerm Structure Global Fuel Oil Demand Global Fuel Oil Inventory Summary Summary Summary ◆Review：The overall downward trend of global fuel oil prices this week is mainly influenced by crude oil prices.Butfrom the trend of crack, fuel oil still performed better than crude oil. We believe that the factors supporting fuel oilprices are still on the supply side. Although the number of global refinery maintenance has decreased this week, theoverall level is still at a seasonal high. Therefore, the fuel oil production of major fuel oil producing countries will notquickly rebound in the short term. This also explains why the monthly spread of HSFO and LSFO swap in theSingapore market has shown a slight upward trend this week. ◆Outlook：Starting from next week, the number of global refinery maintenance is expected to gradually decrease, whileaccording to shipping schedule data, the export volume of fuel oil around the world has recovered. Therefore, as thearrival of goods at major ports increases, the market environment will gradually shift towards ample supply. However,at the same time,heavy distillateinventories in the United States, the Middle East, and Singapore are still athistorically low levels. If there is no significant accumulation of inventories as arrivals increase, there will still be somesupport below prices. Supply Refinery Utilization CDU Utilization of Chinese State-ownedRefineries CDU Utilization of Chinese IndependentRefineries CDU Utilization of Chinese Refineries 原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周） 原油：常减压：独立炼厂：产能利用率：中国（周） 原油：主营炼厂：产能利用率：中国（周） Global Refinery Maintenance Global Maintenance: CDU Production and Supply Demand Global Fuel Oil Demand Inventory Global Fuel Oil Inventory Fuel Inventory: Fujairah Price & Spread Asian Market 新加坡3.5%燃料油FOB价格 European Market NWE 0.5% 380CST FOB American Market OTC Swap Market Chinese Future Market Spread in Physical market Spread between HSFO and LSFO FOB price in Singapore——Hi-5 Spread Global Fuel Oil Crack Singapore LSFO crack NWE HSFO crack 西北欧3.5%裂解价差 Global Fuel Oil Swap’s Term Structure Import & Export Chinese Market Monthly Export amount: Fuel Oil 燃料油：标号：5-7号：出口数量合计：中国（月） 燃料油：标号：5-7号：进口数量合计：中国（月） Weekly Global Import and Export amount: HSFO Weekly Global Import and Export amount: LSFO ThecompanyhasthequalificationoffuturestradingconsultingbusinessapprovedbytheCSRC. TheviewsandinformationinthiscontentareonlyforthereferenceofprofessionalinvestorsofGTJAFutures.Itisdifficulttosetaccesspermissionsforthiscontent.Ifitcausesinconveniencetoyou,pleaseunderstand.IfyouarenotaprofessionalinvestorinGTJAFutures,pleasedonotread,subscribeorreceiveanyrelevantinformation.Thiscontentdoesnotconstitutetherecommendationof specificbusinessesorproducts,norshoulditbeconsideredastheinvestmentrecommendationofcorrespondingfinancialderivatives.Pleasemakeyourowninvestmentdecisionsandbeartheinvestmentrisksaccordingtoyourownrisktolerance.Youshouldnotrelyonthiscontentforspecificoperations. AnalystCertification TheauthorhasthefuturesinvestmentconsultingpracticequalificationorequivalentprofessionalcompetencegrantedbytheChinaFuturesIndustryAssociation,andensuresthatthedatausedinthereportarefromcompliancechannels.Theanalysislogicisbasedontheauthor'sprofessionalunderstanding.Thisreportclearlyandaccuratelyreflectstheauthor'sresearchviews,andstrivestobeindependent,objectiveandfair.Theconclusionisnotinspiredoraffectedbyanythirdparty.Itisherebydeclared. Disclaimers Theinformationinthisreportcomesfromthepublishedinformation,andthecompanymakesnoguaranteefortheaccuracy,completenessorreliabilityofsuchinformation.Theinformation,opinionsandspeculationcontainedinthisreportonlyreflectthejudgmentofthecompanyonthedateofissuingthisreport.Thepriceofthefuturessubjectmatterreferredtointhisreportcanriseorfall,andthepastperformanceshouldnotbeusedasthebasisforfutureperformance.Indifferentperiods,theCompanymayissuereportsthatareinconsistentwiththeinformation,opinionsandassumptionscontainedinthisreport.TheCompanymakesnowarrantsthattheinformationinthisreportbekeptuptodate.Atthesametime,theCompanycanmodifytheinformationcontainedinthisreportwithoutnotice,andinvestorsshouldpayattentiontothecorrespondingupdatesormodifications. Theresearchservicesreferredtointhisreportmaynotbesuitableforindividualclientsanddonotconstituteprivateconsultationandadviceofclients.Inanycase,theinformationoropinionsexpressedinthisreportdonotconstituteinvestmentsuggestionsforanyone.Inanycase,theCompany,itsemployeesoraffiliated