烯烃周报：看多不追多

u原油：美国空袭伊朗核设施，地缘走向扑朔迷离u聚酯链：成本驱动，持续关注以伊局势u海外丙烷：美国下场局势紧张，看多不追多u甲醇：高位波动加剧 海外丙烷杨怡菁从业资格号：F03090247投资咨询号：Z0016789郭瑾雯从业资格号：F03124046投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]338号美国下场局势紧张看多不追多 核心观点LPG指标供应美国中东需求中国印度库存EIA价格结构FEICPFEI-MOPJ未来展望 海外液化气价格：地缘因素致使FEI价格中枢提高；CP价格涨幅有限5505756006256502024/9/12024/10/12024/11/12024/12/12025/1/12025/2/12025/3/12025/4/12025/5/12025/6/1沙特CP价格（美元/吨）C3 CP价格C4 CP价格-200-150-100-50050100150200JFMAMFEI C3-Naphtha Japan(美元/吨)20202021500520540560580600M1M2M3M4M5M6M7FEI C3月间结构2025/5/132025/5/202025/5/272025/6/32025/6/102025/6/17500520540560580600M1M2M3FEI C4月间结构2025/5/132025/6/3 美国供应：对中套利空间不足，6月上半月期间美对中发货量维持低位0100200300400500600700J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24N-24J-25M-25M-25J-25美国LPG输出量-万吨30035040045050055060065012345美国LPG输出量-万吨202020212022050100150200250300350400J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24美国→亚洲-取前四国家（万吨）ChinaSouth Korea0100200300400500600700J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24N-24J-25M-25M-25J-25美国LPG输出量-万吨NE AsiaSE AsiaOther APLATAMEURAFRMEOceaniaNA其他 中东供应：6月加大对中输出，其中特殊货比例升高050100150200250300350400450500J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24N-24J-25M-25M-25J-25中东LPG输出量-万吨0100200300400500J-24050100150200250300350400450500J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24N-24J-25M-25M-25J-25中东→不同区域（万吨）Other APNE AsiaSE AsiaMEAFREURNALATAM050100150200 亚洲需求：日本、韩国、东南亚地区6月持续大量接收美国LPG0100200300400500600700800900J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24N-24J-25M-25M-25J-25亚洲LPG输入量-万吨0102030405060708090J-24M-24M-24United States020406080100120140J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24N-24J-25M-25M-25J-25日本LPG输入量-万吨United StatesCanadaAustraliaMESE AsiaNE AsiaOthers020406080100120140J-24M-24M-24IndonesiaVietnam 中、印来源多元化：中国加大自中东进口量；印度持续加大进口美国LPG050100150200250300350400J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24中国LPG输入量-万吨MENALATAMAFROther APSE Asia050100150200250300350400J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24N-24J-25M-25M-25J-25中国LPG输入量-万吨020406080100120140160180200J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24N-24J-25M-25M-25J-25印度LPG输入量-万吨050100150200J-24M-24M-24J-24S-24印度LPG输入量-万吨United Arab EmiratesQatarSaudi Arabia 加拿大：6月减供日本，大量转供中国051015202530J-24F-24M-24A-24M-24J-24J-24A-24S-24O-24N-24D-24J-25F-25M-25A-25M-25J-25J-25加拿大主要输出国-取前五国家（万吨）JapanSouth KoreaChinaUnited StatesMexico EIA：库存增长水平略有放缓020004000600080001000012000JFMAMJJASONDU.S. C3 Stocks-PADD1 (千桶)2020202120222023202420251200140016001800200022002400260028003000JFMAMJJASONDUS C3 Weekly Production (千桶/日)202020212022202320242025 运费：市场担忧中东局势升级导致的LPG贸易中断，运费持续上涨020406080100120140160180200JFMAMJJASONDBLPG1(中东-日本)-美元/吨202020212022202320242025020406080100120140160JFMAMBLPG2(美国-欧洲)-美元/吨20202021050100150200250300JFMAMJJASONDBLPG3(美国-日本)-美元/吨20212022202320242025050100150200250300350JFMAM西北欧-远东-美元/吨20202021 巴拿马运河水位情况78808284868890JF 从业资格号：F03090247投资咨询号：Z0016789投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2012]338号高位波动加剧 杨怡菁 核心观点甲醇指标供应国产进口需求传统下游烯烃库存内地港口价格结构基差月差PP-3MA品种/板块联动性未来展望风险提示 Ø基差：伊以冲突仍在继续，港口市场截止6.20，华东基差约09+210/215，7下约09+118/125；华南基差约09+85/90。Ø月差：截止6.20，MA9-1=18（+52）。伊以冲突影响下，MA91价差走势有别与往年同期，近期偏强转正。甲醇价格结构：受伊以局势升级刺激，港口基差大涨-850-750-650-550-450-350-250-150-50504/14/84/154/224/295/65/135/205/276/36/106/176/247/17/87/157/227/298/58/12甲醇主力9-11809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-23012309-24012409-25012601-2609-100-5005010015020025018002000220024002600280030003200J-24F-24M-24A-24M-24J-24J-24A-24S-24O-24N-24D-24J-25F-25M-25A-25M-25J-25江苏-MA主力华东主力基差太仓主力月21002200230024002500260027002800J-24 数 据 来 源;卓 创交 易 所 行 情 数 据恒 力 期 货 研 究 院 -400-2002004006008001000-400-200200400600甲醇价格结构：港口速涨拉开与内地价差，关注内地倒流港口情况150020002500300035001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1河北甲醇价格20212022202320242025150020002500300035001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1河南甲醇价格20212022202320242025150020002500300035001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1鲁南甲醇价格20212022202320242025150020002500300035001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1内蒙古甲醇价格20212022202320242025 22002400260028003000J/24甲醇价格结构 甲醇生产利润-5000500100015002000250001-0102-0103-0104-012019 内地供应：关注6月供应反弹压力707580859095100105110JFMAMJJAS周产量总计-个人统计（剔除MTO）20192020202120222023234567891011JFMAMJJAS焦炉气装置损失量-个人统计20192020202120222023 内地库存、订单均微降1015202530354045JFMAMJJAS甲醇内地样本企业订单（万吨）202020212022202320241015202530354045JFMAMJJAS甲醇西北样本库存（万吨）20202021202220232024 数 据 来 源 ： 隆 众恒 力 期 货 研 究 院Ø截止6.18，内地生产企业样本库存为36.74万吨（-1.18）、待发订单27.38万吨（-2.83）。FMAMJJASOND甲醇西南样本企业订单（万吨）202020212022202320242025 甲醇外盘/进口：伊以冲突导致伊朗甲醇装置安全性停车，海外开工率降至低位数 据 来 源; W I N D隆 众恒 力 期 货 研 究 院50556065707580851/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1海外甲醇开工率-%202120222023202420406080100200220240260280300320340360380400J-24F-24M-24A-24M-24J-24J-24A-24S-24O-24N-24D-24J-25F-25M-25A-25M-25J-25CFR东南亚-CFR中国（美元/吨）CFR东南亚-CFR中国CFR中国主港CFR东南亚200250300350400450J-24F-24M-24A-24M-24J-24J-24A-24S-24O-24N-24D-24J-25F-25M-25A-25M-25J-25甲醇外盘价格（美元/吨）CFR中国主港CFR东南亚FOB美湾FOB鹿特丹-欧元/吨200250300350400450J-23F-23M-23A-23M-23J-23J-23A-23S-23O-23N-23D-23J-24F-24M-24A-24M-24J-24J-24A-24S-24甲醇进口利润进口利润CFR中国主港 406080100120140160JFMAMJJAS甲醇港口库存（万吨）20202021202220232024阶段性抵港回落，港口库存波动收窄020406080100120140JFMAMJJAS华东港口库存（万吨）20202021202220232024 05101520253035404550J-24F-24M-24A-24M-24J-24J-24A-24S-24O-24N-24D-24J-25F-25M-25到港量-万吨051015202530354045JFMAMJJAS华东可流通库存（万吨）20202021202220232024阶段性抵港回落，港口库存波动收窄 甲醇下游：近期甲醇价格速涨，关注下游负反馈可能性Ø截止本周四，MTO开工率85.53%（