聚酯链（PX-PTA-MEG-PF-PR）：逐渐回归基本面定价 关注聚酯减产

尹嵘周云 1.价格及结构 1.1价格&基差：成本端原油大幅回落下产业链绝对价格整体走弱60070080090010001100120013001400150016001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1美元/吨PX CFRC20212022202320242025-300-200-1000100200300400500600500055006000650070007500800085009000元/吨元/吨PX期现价格PX合约基差（右轴）PX现货PX期货400045005000550060006500-250-200-150-100-500501001502003000320034003600380040004200440046004800500011/21/13/14/306/298/2810/27 12/26 2/244/256/24元/吨元/吨乙二醇期现价格EG合约基差（右轴）乙二醇现货EG期货-300-200-100010020030040050060056006100660071007600810011/21/13/14/306/298/2810/27 12/26 2/244/256/24元/吨元/吨短纤期现价格PF合约基差（右轴）短纤现货PF期货54005500560057005800590060006100620063006400 1.2盘面基差：PX盘面基差维持高位，PF盘面基差走强-800-600-400-2000200400600800100012001/12/1元/吨-300-200-10001002003004005006001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1元/吨EG盘面主力基差20212022202320242025-400-2000200400600800100012001/12/1元/吨-400-300-200-10001002003004005006001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1元/吨PX盘面主力基差202320242025 1.3现货基差：TA现货基差高位震荡，EG基差持续回落➢根据CCF消息截至周五PTA现货基差在09合约升水255/吨附近，相较上周现货基差略有走弱，7月中上在09+250~257有成交，价格商谈区间在5000~5045附近。7月中下在09+250有成交；➢根据CCF消息截至周五乙二醇目前现货基差在09合约升水67元/吨附近。下周现货基差在09合约升水68-69元/吨附近，商谈4329-4330元/吨，下午几单09合约升水68元/吨附近成交。7月下期货基差在09合约升水68-70元/吨附近，商谈4329-4331元/吨，下午几单09合约升水68-69元/吨附近成交。-2000200400600800100012001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1元/吨PTA基差_CCF报价2022202320242025-200-150-100-50050100150200元/吨 数 据 来 源 ：C C F恒 力 期 货 研 究 院1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1乙二醇基差_CCF报价2022202320242025 1.4月差：PX、TA、EG 9-1价差均有走低，EG重回Contango结构-150-100-500501001502002503001/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/20元/吨PX9-1价差PX2409-PX2501PX2509-PX2601-400-300-200-10001002003004005001/202/203/20元/吨PF2109-PF2201PF240509-PF2501-400-300-200-10001002003004001/202/203/204/205/206/207/208/20元/吨EG9-1价差EG2109-EG2201EG2209-EG2301EG2309-EG2401EG2409-EG2501EG2509-EG2601-300-200-10001002003004005006001/202/203/20元/吨TA2109-TA2201TA2409-TA2501 2.炼厂情况&调油逻辑 炼厂开工情况4050607080901001/12/13/1%20216065707580851/12/13/1% ➢美国炼厂开工率：94.7%（+1.5pct）。➢国内主营炼厂开工情况：国内主营炼厂常减压产能利用率为80.74%（+0.91pct）。➢山东炼厂常减压开工率：本周山东常减压开工率达到45.02%（+0.07pct）。 数据来源：Wind恒力期货研究院 汽油裂解0102030405060701/12/1美元/桶-10-50510152025303540451/12/1美元/桶 ➢截止2025年6月5日，芳烃型重整与汽油型重整价差为5.78美元/吨，甲苯歧化与调油价差为200.7美元/吨，MX异构化与调油价差为138美元/吨，价差相较上周均有一定走扩，调油经济性仍不足。目前汽油需求逐步回升，汽油旺季预期下仍然需要持续关注调油逻辑。调油：化工与调油利润价差走扩，汽油旺季预期下持续关注调油逻辑-120-100-80-60-40-200204060801/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美元/吨芳烃-调油20212022202320242025-200-10001002003004005006001/12/13/14/15/16/1美元/吨甲苯歧化-调油20212022-200-150-100-500501001502002503001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美元/吨MX异构化-调油20212022202320242025 数据来源：Wind恒力期货研究院 调油：甲苯美亚价差周度上涨，MX美亚价差收缩-200020040060080010001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美元/吨MX美亚价差20212022202320242025-200020040060080010001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美元/吨甲苯美亚价差20212022202320242025 3.产业链利润 3.1芳烃：国内外芳烃利润走势有一定分化，国内芳烃重整利润快速走弱-800-600-400-20002004001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1元/吨芳烃型重整利润（国内）202320242025-200300800130018002300280033003800430048001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1甲苯歧化利润（国内）20212022202320242025元/吨-5000500100015002000250030001/12/13/1元/吨2021-500501001502002503001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1芳烃型重整利润20212022202320242025美元/吨-200-10001002003004005006001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1甲苯歧化利润20212022202320242025美元/吨-100-500501001502001/12/13/12021美元/吨 3.2 PX：PXN接近300美元的近期绝对高位-150-100-500501001502002503003504001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1美元/吨石脑油-Brent2021202220232024202501002003004005006007001/12/13/14/1美元/吨202101002003004005006007008001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1美元/吨MXN2021202220232024202501002003004005006007008001/12/13/14/15/1美元/吨2021 3.3 PTA：现货利润走弱，盘面加工费变化不大-600-400-2000200400600800100012001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1元/吨PTA现货净加工费20212022202320242025-400-2000200400600800100012001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1元/吨TA主力合约盘面加工费20212022202320242025 ➢PTA现货利润方面，截至6月27日，PTA现货净加工费为243.75元/吨，相较上周有一定下滑，其中单吨醋酸消耗81元，单吨醋酸消耗较为稳定。➢PTA盘面利润方面，截至6月27日，PTA09合约盘面加工费为355元/吨（不含醋酸成本）。数 据 来 源 ：W i n d、C C F恒 力 期 货 研 究 院 3.4 EG：煤制利润走弱但仍位于近年同期高位，甲醇制利润大幅收缩-4000-3000-2000-100001000200030001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1元/吨动力煤制乙二醇利润20212022202320242025-400-300-200-10001002003001/12/13/14/15/16/1美元/吨进口石脑油制乙二醇利润20212022-300-250-200-150-100-500501001502001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1美元/吨进口乙烯制乙二醇利润20212022202320242025-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000-500050010001/12/13/14/15/16/1元/吨外采甲醇制乙二醇利润20212022 3.5聚酯：聚酯端产品利润周度改善，瓶片、切片利润仍然处于绝对低位-1000-50005001000150020001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1元/吨POY利润20212022202320242025-400-200020040060080010001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1元/吨DTY利润20212022202320242025-600-400-20002004006008001000120014001/12/13/1元/吨2021-600-400-2000200400600800100012001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1元/吨短纤利润20212022202320242025-600-100400900140019001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1元/吨瓶片利润20212022202320242025-400-20002004006008001/12/13/1元/吨 4.供需 4.1 PX/TA装置动态本 周P X装 置 动 态 ：重 启/提 负 ：1、 盛 虹4 0 0万 吨 装 置 因 前 道 故 障 ，P X 6月 中 降 负 荷 ，6月 下 旬 恢 复 ；检 修/降 负 ：1、 东 营 威 联6月2 6