经合组织2025年就业展望：我们能度过人口危机吗？

Can We Get Through theDemographic Crunch? OECD Employment Outlook2025 CAN WE GET THROUGH THE DEMOGRAPHICCRUNCH? This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed andarguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD. This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of international law. Note by the Republic of Türkiye The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiyeshall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”. Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. Theinformation in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus. Please cite this publication as:OECD (2025),OECD Employment Outlook 2025: Can We Get Through the Demographic Crunch?, OECD Publishing, Paris,https://doi.org/10.1787/194a947b-en. ISBN 978-92-64-38816-1 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-39175-8 (PDF)ISBN 978-92-64-91565-7 (HTML) OECD Employment OutlookISSN 1013-0241 (print)ISSN 1999-1266 (online) Photo credits:Cover © simonkr/Getty Images. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found at: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html.© OECD 2025 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Attribution– you must cite the work.Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and thetranslation, only the text of original work should be considered valid.Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed inthis adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and forany claims of infringement.You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shallbe Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. Foreword TheOECD Employment Outlookprovides an annual assessment of key labour market developments andprospects in OECD member countries. Each edition alsoincludesseveral chaptersthat focuson specificaspects ofthe functioning oflabour markets and the implications for policiesto promote more and betterjobs.The2025edition of theOECD Employment Outlookexaminesthe challenges that population ageingposestocurrent living standards, labour markets, andsocial cohesion more generally.The consequencesof an ageing workforce for productivity growth are alsoinvestigated.Policies toaddress these demographicchangesare analysed. The first chapter assesses recent labour market and wage developments. TheOECD EmploymentOutlook2025is the joint work of staff of theDirectorate for Employment, Labourand Social Affairs(ELS).The Outlook hasalso greatly benefitted from comments from other OECDDirectorates and contributions from national government delegatesand national institutions. However,theOutlook’s assessment of the labour marketprospectsfor each countrydoesnot necessarily correspond tothose made by the national authoritiesand institutionsconcerned. Thisreport was edited by AndreaBassanini.The lead authors for individual chapters wereAlexandreGeorgieffandSébastienMartin(Chapter1);AndreaBassanini,EmilyFarchy,SebastianKönigs,AntónioMelo and JavierTerreroDávila(Chapter2);AndrewAitken(Chapter3);AdaZakrzewska(Chapter4);and JonasFluchtma