Avison Young发布2022年第四季度曼哈顿办公室报告

Q4 2022 Manhattan office market trends increase in leasing activityfrom 2021 to 2022, despiterecent slowdown overall availability rate –20 basis points higher than Q32022, reaching record levels decrease in Manhattan jobpostings from October toNovember 2022 leasing activity has outperformed leasingactivity from 2021 (32.4 msf vs. 28.1 msf) andhas reached the highest post-COVID annualvolume of leasing activity. Despite the year-over-year increase, Q4 2022 leasing activity of5.4 million square feet (msf) was significantlylower than previous Q4s, which is historicallythe strongest leasing quarter of the year. Total office availability in Manhattan hasincreased by 20 basis points from 18.4% in Q32022 to 18.6% in Q4 – reaching record highs ofavailable space. An abundance of both directand sublease space was added to the marketin Q4 2022, causing direct available space toreach 97.6 msf and sublet available space toreach 23.6 msf. In November 2022, Manhattan saw the largestmonth-over-month decline in job postingspost-COVID. The tech industry experienced thelargest drop in job postings, decreasing by57.0% from October to November – largely asa result of major nationwide tech layoffs. Job posting data serves as a predictiveindicator for potential future demand as wellas potential disposition of space. This hasbeen demonstrated by tech tenants inManhattan putting space back on the marketfollowing company layoffs. Given the recent slowdown in leasing activityand recessionary concerns, Q1 and Q2 2023are likely to follow similar demand trends asQ4 2022. As a result of anticipated economic slowdownsas well as new space deliveries, availability islikely to continue upward in the comingquarters – furthering tenant-favorable marketconditions. Manhattan office market trends difference in Class A base andnet effective rents, December2022 of Manhattan office sales in2022 Manhattan return-to-work efforts,week of December 12, 2022 vs.week of December 9, 2019 Total sale volume in Q4 2022 increasedcompared to Q3 2022 due to several majortransactions that closed just before year end.The sale of 1330 Avenue of the Americas for$320 million and the sale of the office condo at885 Third Avenue for $300 million were thenotable sales of the quarter. Manhattan return-to-office rates have beentrending upwards towards pre-COVIDnormalcy. Compared to 2021, this year hasdemonstrated stronger return-to-work efforts.In December 2021, office visitor volumes were45.1% of December 2019 levels – and are nowup to 55.7%. In an effort to compete with Trophyproperties, landlords of high-quality Class Aproperties are offering historically largeconcession packages. These concessionpackages are used to induce tenantcommitments, causing the gap between ClassA base and net effective rents to continue towiden. Most major office-using industries inManhattan are above 50% of 2019 levels, withthe exceptions of technology, consulting, andpublic relations – industries that havestruggled to garner a strong return to officepresence. A slowdown in investment activity is likely tooccur in the coming quarters due to currenteconomic uncertainty, higher interest rates,and occupier concerns that are facing theManhattan office market. In March 2020, the gap between Class A baseand net effective rents was $10.04. By Q32022, this gap increased to $17.26. Q4 2022saw the gap hit a record high of $21.15 psf. Return-to-workefforts Exploring Avison Young’sVitality Index Manhattan visitorvolumes by property 65.6% Manhattan overall visitor volumes,week of December 12, 2022 vs.week of December 9, 2019. Overall Manhattan visitor volumes are at 65.6% ofpre-COVID levels when compared to the same weekin 2019, led largely by education. Office remains theproperty type with the lowest visitor volumesrelative to 2019 levels. 55.7%Manhattan return-to-work efforts byindustry Manhattan office visitor volumes,week of December 12, 2022 vs.week of December 9, 2019. Office visitor volumes for major industries inManhattan continue towards stronger in-personvisitation, reaching over half of 2019 levels andsurpassing Q3 2022 (51.0%). Manhattan return-to-office by submarket 61.2% average visitor volumes at topeight submarkets, week ofDecember 12, 2022 vs. week ofDecember 9, 2019 Offices located in mixed-use and transit-orientedneighborhoods, such as Times Square, Chelsea, andMurray Hill have reported stronger office visitorvolumes relative to peer submarkets. Manhattan return-to-office rates per day ofthe week 55.7% Manhattan office visitor volumes,week of December 12, 2022 vs.week of December 9, 2019. Offices in Manhattan have more mid-weekvisitation, with Mondays and Fridays lagging behindrelative to 2019 levels. Let’s examinemore prevailingoffice trends Office marketavailability rate 18.6% Manhattan office availability rateas of Q4 2022. Office availability in Manhattan has increased by 20basis points from 18.4% in Q3 2022 to 18.6% in Q4 –marking the highest