加勒比地区转型情景

Repor t/July 2025 Authors and AcknowledgmentsAuthorsSkylar Bee,RMIZsaria Diaz,RMIJames Fletcher,SoloriconDavid Gumbs,RMIJordon Hayles,RMISidney Jules,RMIMax Lainfiesta,RMIMark Lozano,RMILillie Ogden,RMIWayne Omonuwa,RMIIan Welch-Phillips,RMIAuthors listed alphabetically.ContactsSkylar Bee,sbee@rmi.orgDavid Gumbs,dgumbs@rmi.orgCopyrights and CitationSkylar Bee, James Fletcher, David Gumbs, et al.,A Caribbean Regional Transition Scenario: Pathways fordelivering a secure and resilient energy future in the Caribbean, RMI, 2025,https://rmi.org/insight/a-caribbean-regional-transition-scenario/.RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons. org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/.Cover photo by Jordon Hayles, RMI.Peer reviewThe authors thank the following individuals for their peer review of this report. All errors remain our own.Christopher Burgess,RMIGiovanni Buckle,Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy EfficiencyAyanna Evelyn,Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy EfficiencyCherri-Ann Farquharson,Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy EfficiencyJames Fletcher,SoloriconLaetitia De Marez,RMIJean-Michel Parle,Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy EfficiencyJames Sherwood,RMI rmi.org/ About RMIRocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transformsglobal energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energyfuture for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners,RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access to affordableclean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’s livelihoods. RMIis active in over 60 countries.AcknowledgementsThis work was made possible through the support of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors.The authors thank the following organizations for graciously offering their insights to this work. Inclusionon this list does not indicate endorsement of the report’s findings.Barbados Fair Trading CommissionThe Barbados Renewable Energy AssociationBarbados Light and PowerBlue Mountain RenewablesENBAR ConsultingCaribbean Community Climate Change CentreCaribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy EfficiencyJamaica Public Service Company LimitedThe Ministry of Climate Resilience, the Environment and Renewable Energy, GrenadaThe Ministry of Science, Energy, Telecommunications and Transport, JamaicaOffice of Utilities Regulation, Jamaica rmi.org/ 3A Caribbean Regional Transition Scenario: Pathways for delivering a secure and resilient energy future in the Caribbean Table of ContentsList of AcronymsForewordExecutive SummaryRegional pathwaysAn optimal scenarioRegional energy optionsRegional transition milestonesIntroduction1Challenges and Opportunities for Implementing the Transition15Rethinking regulation and utility business modelsAddressing the high cost of capitalRising energy costsCapacity and workforce developmentJust transition and energy justice2Regional Transition PathwaysBarbados — Decentralized energy pathwaysDominica- Geothermal systemsGrenada — Aggregated and utility-scale pathwaysJamaica — Independent power producers3An Optimal ApproachAligning on regional targetsKey policy and regulatory frameworks for promoting the transitionClimate adaptation synergiesInvestment requirementsData and monitoring frameworksSpotlight on best practices4Regional energy optionsTransition pathways and energy optionsAn accelerated but managed transition5Regional Transition MilestonesA roadmap to 100%Accelerating action in 2025–2026Toward a sustainable futureAppendicesAppendix A: Regional Energy Options MethodologyAppendix B: Case Study Infographic Data rmi.org/4A Caribbean Regional Transition Scenario: Pathways for delivering a secure and resilient energy future in the Caribbean57910111213141517181921222334455566666768697172757575848489919292100 List of AcronymsAI —Artificial IntelligenceATB —Annual Technology BaselineBESS —Battery Energy Storage SystemBLPC —Barbados Light & Power CompanyBNEF —Bloomberg New Energy FinanceBNEP —Barbados National Energy PolicyC-SERMS —CARICOM Sustainable Energy Roadmap and StrategyCAPEX —Capital ExpendituresCARICOM —Caribbean Community and Common MarketCARILEC —Caribbean Electric Utility Services CorporationCCREEE —Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy EfficiencyCCSF —Caribbean Climate Smart FacilityCDB —Caribbean Development BankCDF —CARICOM Development FundCEKH —CARICOM Energy Knowledge HubCEP —Community Electrification ProgrammeCOP —Conference of the PartiesCCRF —Caribbean Community Resilience FundCRP —Community Renewal ProgrammeCRRP —Dominica Climate Resilience Recovery PlanDBJ —Development Bank of JamaicaDER