全球市场状况报告
SEPTEMBER 2022 CONTENTS Global Response Overview1Introduction2Effects of Current Geopolitical Crises3Severity of Supply Chain Disruption4Introduction / Re-introduction of Alternative Procurement Forms6Challenges and Solutions7Summary8 MARKET VOLATILITY, CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS GLOBAL RESPONSE OVERVIEW RLB recently carried-out a global survey in which ourDirectors and Partners provided their views of theeffects of the current geopolitical crises. Local andRegional analyses will be published at a local level, aswill particular Regions’ results, but this report looksat the overall global findings and responses. The reader’s attention is drawn to the fact thatthe global analysis can, and does in some places,produce conflicting results in the context ofcomparison with Regional views. This is inevitable,as the impacts experienced around the globe arevariable depending on commercial and politicalrelationships and geography. MARKET VOLATILITY, CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS MARKET SURVEY INTRODUCTION The global survey sought RLB Partners’ and Directors’ views around the world onmatters arising from and related to the economic shocks alluded-to previously.The intent was to compile respondents’ views on a range of questions, using three“project phases” as focal points: There can be no doubt that the construction industry has moved from trying tocreate certainty in the long term, to navigating uncertainty in the short term andwithin the larger economic climate. The global construction market is experiencingvolatility of commodities and labour pricing caused by a combination of: Project inception/feasibilityProject bid/tender stageProject on-site stage Ukraine/Russia conflictPost-Covid recoveryNew Covid wavesRising cost of energy and fuel By adopting these three anchor points, responses were funnelled into categorieswhich were reasonably clearly defined, yet collectively captured opinions asto effects throughout the development process. The analysis below capturesrespondents’ views globally on some of the key questions as applicable toparticular phases of the development process. We know there are project challenges around volatility of prices, lead in timesof materials and shortages of labour - and at times project feasibility is beingquestioned. However, projects need to continue as the demand and need forbuildings continues, be it affordable accommodation, a new school or new officespace. At RLB, we listen to the wide range of voices in the supply chain, fromsuppliers, sub-contractors and contractors talking about price increases, profitmargin squeezes and challenges within the labour market, as well as clientsneeding certainty in outcomes and reducing risk on projects. To ensure we remain close to our supply chain and bring the best counsel to ourclients, we recently launched a global survey to find out the exact impact of geo-political issues such as the war in Ukraine, the ensuing energy price volatility, andother global challenges. It is no surprise our first responses have come back with comments such as:“procurement strategies are being reviewed and project viabilities are possibly atrisk”, “we are now facing a new world order as a new normal” and “contractors arerequesting contractual mechanisms to allow for price adjustment such is the price-volatility of materials.” Key findings are summarised throughout this report. MARKET VOLATILITY, CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS EFFECTS OF CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL CRISES Several respondents were of the opinion that the impacts resulting from thecurrent geopolitical tensions exist in three dimensions. First of all, soaring energyprices will push up construction cost as the industry’s activities are highly energyintensive. Second, it is another blow to the supply chain while the recoveryfrom the pandemic is in sight, in turn raising the prices of commodities. Lastly,unfavourable investment sentiment due to market uncertainty could slow theeconomy. These three-dimension impacts may affect all sectors, and have beenevidenced in the UK in some clients having decided to sell sites rather thandevelop out themselves, due to concerns as to market inflation and perceivedincreases in development risk. RLB Partners were asked whether current geopolitical difficulties are affectingprojects and if so, to what extent. Responses strongly supported the view thatprojects are being adversely affected, but the weighting of the effect is variable asbetween projects at the identified three stages of the development process. Overall, over 67% of respondents hold the view that projects at inception/feasibility stages are being directly affected by the current geopolitical crises. That viewpoint is even more strongly felt in respect of tender/bid stage projects,with almost 76% either agreeing or strongly agreeing that it is the case. At the sharp-end of advising clients, increased prices are generallyimpacting viability, with it becoming harder to make projects stack-up. Creativ
