2025-2030年石油的分析和预测

The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement and muchmore. Through its work,the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhancethe reliability,affordability andsustainability of energyin its32Member countries,13Association countriesand beyond.This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area.Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.orgIEAMembercountries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEAINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY IEAAssociationcountries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine AbstractGlobal oil markets have so far had a turbulent 2025. Heightened trade tensionsand uncertainty have weighed on the world economy and, by extension, oildemand growth. Combined with the recent OPEC+ decision to accelerate theunwinding of oil production curbs that have been in place for several years, thesefactors have recently pushed international oil prices to four-year in April and earlyMay. At the same time, shifts in energy policies are affecting oil producers andconsumers alike, with oil supply security remaining high on the internationalenergy policy agenda.Oil 2025looks beyond the short-term horizon covered in the IEA’s monthlyOil Market Report (OMR)to provide a comprehensive overview of evolving oilsupply, demand, refining and trade dynamics through 2030. ThisReportpresentsdetailed forecasts and analysis of oil demand fundamentals across fuels, sectorsand regions as well as the supply outlook from planned upstream and downstreamprojects around the world. The results provide valuable insights on the prospectsfor spare oil production capacity, product supply and trade flows through 2030.Oil 2025also explores the implications of surging output of natural gas liquids(NGLs) in an era of petrochemical-driven demand growth. PAGE|3 PAGE|4AcknowledgementsThis publication was prepared by the Oil Industry and Markets Division (OIMD) ofthe Directorate of Energy Markets and Security (EMS). Toril Bosoni, head ofOIMD, led the analysis and editing of the Report. The principal authors are, inalphabetical order: Alexander Bressers, Julien Canu, Joel Couse, Ciarán Healy,Yueyang Liu, David Martin, Jacob Messing, Rebecca Schulz, Yoshito Tanaka andJennyThomson.Ramiz Farishta provided statistical support and essentialresearch assistance. Keisuke Sadamori, director of the IEA’s EMS, providedexpert guidance and advice. Deven Mooneesawmy provided essential editorialassistance. Diane Munro edited the manuscript.The report benefited greatly from contributions from other experts within the IEA,including Ana Alcalde Bascones, Stephanie Bouchaert, Leonardo Collina, LauraCozzi, Laurence Cret, Tim Gould, Jérôme Hilaire, Martin Kueppers, ChristopheMcGlade,Jeremy Moorhouse,Araceli Fernandez Pales,Leonardo Paoli,Apostolos Petropoulos, Courtney Turich and Talya Vatman.Thanks go to the IEA’s Communications and Digital Office (CDO), particularly toJethro Mullen, head of CDO: Lee Bailey, Poeli Bojorquez, Curtis Brainard, JonCuster, Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdil, Liv Gaunt, Grace Gordon, Julia Horowitz,Oliver Joy, Robert Stone and Clara Vallois. PAGE|5Table of contentsExecutive summary.................................................................................................................. 6Turbulent times in oil markets .................................................................................................... 6Demand.................................................................................................................................... 11Global summary ....................................................................................................................... 11Fundamentals........................................................................................................................... 16Road fuel demand .................................................................................................................... 22Petrochemical demand rising strongly ..................................................................................... 29Efficiency gains slow underlying growth in aviation and marine demand ................................ 33Demand developments by region ............................................................................................ 36Supply....................................................................