行业周报：公关，投行

GTJA Futures Research InstituteChenXinchao（Analyst）Advisor y Code：Z0020238HeXiaoqin（Analyst）Advisor y Code：Z0017709QianJiayin（Contacts）Qualification Code：F03124480Date：2025.6.29 CONTENTS PETResin（PR） Summary of Key Insights Direct spinning polyester staple fiber（PF） Valuation and ProfitFundamental OperationsSupply-Demand Balance Upstream product viewpoints Valuation and Profit PRviewpoint Fundamental Operations PFviewpoint Summary of Key Insights Summary of Key Insights PET resin (PR) Polyster short fiber (PF) PR: Production Cuts Imminent, Processing Fee Expansion, Long PR and Short PF PF: Short-term Oscillation, Medium-term Pressure Remains, Long PR and Short PF (1) Production cuts by leading factories are imminent. The total capacityinvolved in the production cuts by leading factories is around 2.4 milliontons. This week, CR Snow's factories in three locations began to cutproduction, with an operating rate of 88%. Subsequently,Yishengand Wankawill conduct maintenance in early July. However, the actual implementationstrength and duration still need to be observed. (1) Domestic and international demand is weakening sequentially. The peak periodfor export orders has passed, and trade negotiations in July and August maystill bring fluctuations. Domestic demand is entering a seasonal lull, and theweaving and dyeing segments are experiencing seasonal load reduction. Terminalrestocking is not active at high prices. Joint production cuts and contractreductions by factories are expected to be implemented in July. However, theprofit and inventory pressure on short fibers themselves are not prominent. Thisweek, after the cost decline, processing fees have returned to 1,000-1,100yuan/ton, and the strength of production cut implementation may be relativelyweak. Currently, overall operating rates are still maintained at a relativelyhigh level of 94%. Inventories have accumulated slightly, with 1.4D entitlementinventory at 11.6 days and physical inventory at 20.5 days. (2) Domestic downstream operations maintain a high level of activity, andsince May, downstream purchases have been limited due to the rise in absoluteprices. If absolute prices decline, buying interest is expected to providesome support. Meanwhile, the recent drop in shipping rates has reduced theimpact of freight on exports in July and August. Overall, after theproduction cuts are fully implemented, bottling sheets are expected to shiftto a slight destocking pattern in July and August. This week, factoryinventories have slightly decreased to around 17.6 days. (2) The market focus is gradually shifting back to supply and demand, and thesingle-sided price is expected to remain in a short-term range-bound movement.With the expectation of production cuts and destocking being realized, there isstill room for processing fee expansion. The production cut sentiment for shortfibers may not be as strong as that for bottling sheets, so it is recommended togo long on PR and short on PF. Going forward, attention should be paid to theimplementation of factory production cuts and the fluctuations brought by tradenegotiations. (3) The market focus is gradually shifting back to supply and demand, and thesingle-sided price is expected to remain in a short-term range-boundmovement. With the expectation of production cuts and destocking beingrealized, there is still room for processing fee expansion. The productioncut sentiment for short fibers may not be as strong as that for bottlingsheets, so it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF. PET Resin（PR） Freight rates decline; June-July exports affected butsequential impact weakens Basis and Monthly Spread ◆Aftertheabsolutepricedecline,thebasishasrecovered,andthefutures-spotstructurehasrevertedtoaBACKstructure. ◆Thisweek,pricesdeclinedwithindividuallargeplantsincreasingoutput,resultinginoverallaveragetransactions.FactoryorderSpot Prices and Key Spreads transactionpricesrangedfrom5950-6080RMB/tonex-factory;overseasprices(FOB)wereat800-810USD/ton. ◆EastChina-SouthChinaPriceSpreadShowsRecovery Spot Prices and Key Spreads ◆PETResin-ChipSpread:Since2024,thePETresin-chipspreadhasremainedathistoricallows.Producerswithconversioncapabilitiesmayoptforswitchingoperations(addingIPAtothePETresinpolymerizationstage,correspondingtothechipproductbeingbrightchip).Currently,therearefewfacilitiescapableofconversion,withanestimatedcapacityofaround650,000tons. ◆PF-PRSpread:PFplantsplanmassproductioncuts,whilePRplantsresumemaintenance,potentiallywideningthePF-PRspread. Production and Operating Rates ◆Since2024,thecapacitybasehascontinuouslyexpanded,withthecurrenteffectivecapacityreaching21.68milliontons(CCFdata). ◆Thisweek,PETresinoperatingratesfellto88.7%,yetweeklyoutputremainedhighonasequentialbasis. Raw Material : PTA transitions from destocking toinventory accumulation Cost and Profit: recover amid cost decline ◆Agglomerationcostshavesignificantlyincreased,reachingaround6,050RMB/tonthisweek. ◆Thesp