行业周报：公关，产品研发

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTSSummary of Key Insights01Upstream product viewpointsPRviewpointPFviewpoint PETResin（PR）Valuation and ProfitFundamental OperationsSupply-Demand Balance Direct spinning polyester staple fiber（PF）Valuation and ProfitFundamental Operations Summary of Key Insights01 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesSummary of Key InsightsPET resin (PR)PR: Production Cuts Imminent, Processing Fee Expansion, Long PR and Short PF(1) Production cuts by leading factories are imminent. The total capacityinvolved in the production cuts by leading factories is around 2.4 milliontons. This week, CR Snow's factories in three locations began to cutproduction, with an operating rate of 88%. Subsequently,Yishengand Wankawill conduct maintenance in early July. However, the actual implementationstrength and duration still need to be observed.(2) Domestic downstream operations maintain a high level of activity, andsince May, downstream purchases have been limited due to the rise in absoluteprices. If absolute prices decline, buying interest is expected to providesome support. Meanwhile, the recent drop in shipping rates has reduced theimpact of freight on exports in July and August. Overall, after theproduction cuts are fully implemented, bottling sheets are expected to shiftto a slight destocking pattern in July and August. This week, factoryinventories have slightly decreased to around 17.6 days.(3) The market focus is gradually shifting back to supply and demand, and thesingle-sided price is expected to remain in a short-term range-boundmovement. With the expectation of production cuts and destocking beingrealized, there is still room for processing fee expansion. The productioncut sentiment for short fibers may not be as strong as that for bottlingsheets, so it is recommended to go long on PR and short on PF.PF: Short-term Oscillation, Medium-term Pressure Remains, Long PR and Short PF(1) Domestic and international demand is weakening sequentially. The peak periodstill bring fluctuations. Domestic demand is entering a seasonal lull, and theweaving and dyeing segments are experiencing seasonal load reduction. Terminalreductions by factories are expected to be implemented in July. However, theprofit and inventory pressure on short fibers themselves are not prominent. Thisyuan/ton, and the strength of production cut implementation may be relativelyweak. Currently, overall operating rates are still maintained at a relativelyhigh level of 94%. Inventories have accumulated slightly, with 1.4D entitlement(2) The market focus is gradually shifting back to supply and demand, and thesingle-sided price is expected to remain in a short-term range-bound movement.With the expectation of production cuts and destocking being realized, there isstill room for processing fee expansion. The production cut sentiment for shortfibers may not be as strong as that for bottling sheets, so it is recommended togo long on PR and short on PF. Going forward, attention should be paid to theimplementation of factory production cuts and the fluctuations brought by trade Polyster short fiber (PF)for export orders has passed, and trade negotiations in July and August mayrestocking is not active at high prices. Joint production cuts and contractweek, after the cost decline, processing fees have returned to 1,000-1,100inventory at 11.6 days and physical inventory at 20.5 days.negotiations. 4 PET Resin（PR）02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures"Anti-Inward Rolling" for PET Resin: Cost Increase,Minimal Supply Impact◆PolicyTransmission:Top-down,withupstreamsectorsmoreeasilycontrolleddirectlybypolicies;downstreamsectorsrelymoreonmarketcompetitioneliminationthroughmeasureslikesubsidyremoval.PETresinhasbeenincompetitionforyears.◆PETresinfacilitieswithin10yearsaccountforasignificantproportion,whileamongthoseover20years,state-ownedenterprises,export-oriented,andlong-idledfacilitieshaveahighershare.◆CostGradientNarrow:ThecashflowcostofleadingPETresinenterprisesisgenerallywithintherangeof450-500RMB/ton,withminimaldifferences;thefullcostmostlyfallswithinthe700-900RMB/tonrange.0100200300400500600700800900三房巷华润万凯元/吨现金流成本完全成本PET Resin Enterprise CostComparisonSource: Company Annual Report, GTJAQH Research10年以内68%10-15年18%15-20年10%20年以上-已长停1%20年以上-出口为主0%20年以上-国企2%瓶片在产装置年限结构PET Resin Facility Age ComparisonSource: Longzhong Consulting, CCF, GTJAQH Research Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesFreight rates decline; June-July exports affected butsequential impact weakensSource: Clarksons, GTJAQH Research010002000300040005000600070008000900001-0301-1301-2402-0902-2103-0303-1403-2404-0404-1404-2505-0605-1705-2706-0706-1706-2807-0807-1908-0208-1608-3009-1309-2710-1811-0111-1511-2912-1312-27$/FEUSCFI Shanghai-WC America (base port) ContainerFreight Rate20222023202420250200040006000800010000120001400001-0301-1301-2402-0902-2103-0303-1403-2404-0404-1404-2505-0605-1705-2706-0706-1706-2807-0807-1908-0208-1608-3009-1309-2710-1811-0111-1511-2