巴克莱-“美国无人驾驶出租车的军备竞赛

The Coming US Ridehail vs.Robotaxi Cold War We estimate every 11k robotaxis on the road could capture10% of ridehail's US urban-airport market share. Waymo isway ahead on tech, but limited by fleet size and losing moneyper trip, hence partnering with Uber. 2027 likely to be the firstyear that problems materialize for the ridehail names. U.S. InternetPOSITIVE U.S. Internet Ross Sandler+1 415 263 4470ross.sandler@barclays.comBCI, US Trevor Young, CFA+1 212 526 3098trevor.young@barclays.comBCI, US We appreciate your5-star votein the2025Extel All-America Research Surveyin theInternetLarge-CapandInternet Mid- & Small-Capcategories.View our analysts » Vote 5 Stars forBarclays » Alex Hughes+1 212 526 3069alexander.hughes@barclays.comBCI, US The Key Take Away:Investors have flip-flopped onwhether robotaxis are going to be a problem or not forUBER and LYFT shares, since third-party data showsGoogle's Waymo (a subsidiary of GOOGL) at 20% market US Ridehail Industry Model Joseph Petroline+1 212 526 6382joseph.petroline@barclays.comBCI, US share in SF’s operating zone last December. Partnership announcements and market launchesof late (incl yesterday in Atlanta for Uber-Waymo) have helped ease some of these concerns, butthe outlook remains mixed and Tesla remains a big unknown. We think UBER (and LYFT) sharescan work higher if they add more Waymo cities, but if we see the latter opening new markets onits own like in SF/LA (full stack) we would become increasingly concerned. For now, the riskappears contained. Below we publish a deep dive on the comping robotaxi disruption, keyconclusions include: Michael DiSanto+1 212 526 1054michael.disanto@barclays.comBCI, US 1.Despite a significant 145B passenger vehicle trip TAM in 2026E, ride-hail is only around 3Btrips evenaftera decade-plus of growth. 80% of ridehail volume is in the top 20 cities in theUS, and half of that is concentrated in urban/airport zones. Owen Clendenin+1 212 526 7518owen.clendenin@barclays.comBCI, US 2.Robotaxis are likely to be more prolific in these urban/airport zones (not as dominant in thesuburbs), as fleet utilization will need to be high to run these networks profitably. Waymo’sCA data shows utilization has ramped to 24x trips/day/vehicle and each robotaxi is onlyutilized for around half of the day – hence we estimate peak utilization could be 36x trips/day. The average Waymo trip in 2024 was 9 miles, hence we estimate break-even pricing foriPace is around $32/trip, well above what the company is charging. It is no surprise Waymois partnering with Uber and others to help spread the losses. We estimate break-even pricingfor a hypothetical $30k robotaxi would be $16/trip. Alexander Kessinger+1 212 526 1324alexander.kessinger@barclays.comBCI, US U.S. Autos & Mobility Dan Levy+1 212 526 3212dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, US 3.Every 11k robotaxis put on the road at peak utilization would take 10% of urban/airportridehail trips (and 5% of overall trips). Hence, it would take around 55,000 US robotaxis to Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 18.Completed: 25-Jun-25, 01:49 GMTReleased: 25-Jun-25, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External penetrate 50% of Uber andLyft’sUS urban/airport trip market share. But supply is short,and we see only 3,500-4,500 robotaxis operating in 2026. 4.What Does Waymo Do In 2027? We assume Uber and perhapsLyftmay sign additionalWaymo partnerships (new cities) in the near term in the US, but it is unclear how exclusivethese deals are, or how long they may be in place. 2027 seems like the first year whererobotaxis start to make a minor dent in the ridehail market. This is likely when moresignificant vehicle supply comes online, and at a much more attractive total cost ofownership. A key question will be – does Waymo continue to partner with Uber and to whatdegree, or does it go it alone once the supply shows up? We publish our ridehail industry model for the first time in conjunction with this report,attached above. We Expect Robotaxi To Start To Chip Away At The 3B Ridehail TAM In2027. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Waymo California Data Helps Explain The Coming Robotaxi Disruption.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6How Much Of The TAM Is Addressable By Robotaxis?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11When Might Robotaxi Make A Dent?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13Robotaxi Production Pipeline - When Do The Vehicles Show Up?.