流动性｜跨季扰动结束，央行呵护会不会随之结束？

证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师隋修平SAC证书编号：S0160525020003suixp@ctsec.com分析师汪梦涵SAC证书编号：S0160525030003wangmh01@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com相关报告格大幅回落》2025-06-282025-06-27显著减少》2025-06-25 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1跨季扰动结束，央行呵护会不会随之结束？.......................................................................................51.16月资金和存单市场回顾...................................................................................................................51.2Q2货币政策例会传达的信息............................................................................................................91.37月资金和存单展望.........................................................................................................................112周度资金存单跟踪和关键点提示.........................................................................................................133央行：呵护跨季，加码逆回购净投放.................................................................................................144政府债：下周政府债净缴款下降至-59亿元......................................................................................155票据：票据利率上行，季末信贷冲量效应不强.................................................................................186汇率：统计期升值，人民币即期汇率录得7.17.................................................................................187市场资金供需：国有行融出抬升，非银提高杠杆.............................................................................198CD：MLF补充，国有行存单净融资明显转负.................................................................................238.1一级发行市场：本周国有行净融资继续为负，发行利率下降....................................................238.2二级交易市场：活跃度上抬，银行增持意愿乐观，非银介入略弱............................................269风险提示.................................................................................................................................................27图1. 6月资金面复盘.......................................................................................................................................5图2.央行短端流动性投放.............................................................................................................................7图3.买断式逆回购净投放环比加量.............................................................................................................7图4.央行MLF净投放环比缩量..................................................................................................................7图5.全月流动性投放.....................................................................................................................................7图6. R001在第二周开始极为稳定................................................................................................................8图7. 3个月期Shibor延续震荡下行.............................................................................................................8图8. 6月存单买盘...........................................................................................................................................8图9. 7月信贷投放偏低...................................................................................................................................9图10. 7月后理财规模会回补.........................................................................................................................9图11.二季度货币政策例会内容.................................................................................................................10图12. 7月资金中枢或延续下行...................................................................................................................11图13. 7月资金分层也惯性走弱...................................................................................................................11内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图14. 7月存单到期2.85万亿......................................................................................................................11图15. 6月国有行存单净融资回落明显.......................................................................................................11图16.托管数据视角看7月存单买盘规律，广义基金先行.....................................................................12图17.二级市场中，农商理财保险惯性买入存单.....................................................................................12图18. 7月存单收益率惯性下行...................................................................................................................12图19.一周资金和存单关键点跟踪.............................................................................................................13图20.下周资金扰动因素.............................................................................................................................14图21.央行周度操作和资金价格走势.........................................................................................................15图22.逆回购存量仍旧高于季节性.............................................................................................................15图23.统计期短期资金到期情况.................................................................................................................15图24.统计期或有中长期资金到期情况..................................................................................