中国券商：资产负债表扩张——范式与路径

OVERWEIGHT Brokerage Huatai Research 27 June 2025│China (Mainland) (Maintain) Themes AnalystSHENJuanSAC No. S0570514040002SFC No. BPN843shenjuan@htsc.com+(86) 755 2395 2763 Chinabrokers:B/S utilizationcapabilitybecomes crucialChinabrokeragesectorhas entered a balance sheet(B/S)expansion cycle in recent years, with business models evolving through multiple iterations.Sectortotal assets reached RMB13tn at end-2024 (12% CAGRfor the recent10 years),marking a new milestone. The operational paradigm has shifted from directionalproprietary trading to integrated investment frameworks combining directional/non-directional strategies and client-driven services, gradually aligning with matureglobal trading-oriented investment banks(IBs). Looking ahead,we expect Chinesebrokers’equityandfixed income(FI)investmentstoprioritize non-directional, low-volatilityabsolute return strategies,while the rising share of institutions in domesticinvestorstructure(‘the institutionalization trend’)could boost demand forover-the-counter (OTC)derivatives and market making services,both representingpotentialB/Sexpansiondirections.We believe core competitiveness now hingeson asset allocation efficiency, international collaboration depth, M&A integrationeffectiveness, and asset-liability structure alignment. AnalystWANG YuSAC No. S0570523010003SFC No. BRZ146wangyu017005@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228 Essence andpathways ofbrokerB/S expansionWe believe brokers’B/S expansion reflects: 1) capital market expansion across equities,FIand derivatives, and 2) enhanced institutional client service capabilitiesamidthe institutionalization trend. We note three strategic pathways: 1) M&A-drivenoperations enhancement and regional reach extension(eg,CITICSecurities’acquisition of Guangzhou Securities created China’s first RMB1tn-assetbroker); 2) organic growth duringfavorable regulatory cycles and market climate;margin financing & securities lending (MFSL) propelled China brokeragesector’sassets to RMB6.4tn in 2015 (over 2x early-2014 levels), while institutionalizationand derivatives drove assets to RMB11.8tn atend-2023, with a13% CAGR overthe pastthree years; 3) global expansionand overseas leverage utilization, egoffshore financing andinternationalsubsidiaries’capitalincrease. Source: Wind, Huatai Research CurrentB/S expansioncyclefueled by FIinvestments&subsidiariesOverthe past decade, China brokeragesector’s asset scale has grown at a 12% CAGR, transitioning from cyclical expansion to resilient growth. Market volatilityhas not derailed B/S expansion momentum, led predominantly by major brokers.Wehighlightthree structural features. 1) Financial investment-driven expansion:Three prior cycles (2006-2007, 2014-2015, and 2019-2021)were driven by clientfunds, MFSL/stock pledge, and institutional client demand, respectively. Since2023, Chinesebrokers haveactively scaledFI portfolio amid capital-light businesspressures and bullbondmarkets, potentially offering greater sustainability, in ourview. 2) Rising subsidiary contributions: subsidiariesmade up64% of Chinesebrokers’financial investment growth in 2024, with international arms generallyexpanding B/S and top brokers increasing overseas exposure. 3) Stable butdiverging leverage: large brokers show superior B/S utilization with investmentleverage reaching 2.7x at end-2024 vs 1.8x for mid/small peers. China vs overseas: B/S expansion pathsdivergent Chinesebrokers’B/S expansion pathways diverge from global peers:1)financingbusinesses face relative constraints, with MFSL linked to marketconditions;2)thethird-party custodial system prohibits low-cost liability generation through clientasset rehypothecation. Examining Goldman Sachs, acentury-oldIB,whichshiftedfrom directional proprietary trading to client-driven servicesafter the 2008globalfinancial crisis, with investment trading maintaining 40%+ revenue contributions. Atend-2024, its total derivatives notional value was USD45.88tn (second only to J.P.Morgan’s USD47.36tn in the global market), capturing 25% market share with No.1positions in futures, OTC options, and FX.Suchcomposite structure facilitateshedging while generating stable revenue streams. In recent years,the Chinabrokeragesectorisevolving from directional investments to integrated systemsencompassingderivative hedging positions,direct equity investments,andco-investments, narrowing the gap with global IBs. Eyes on major Chinesebrokers withstrongB/Sutilization capabilityWeseeChina brokeragesectorstands at a strategic expansion window, with macro asset allocation, global coordination, M&A, and liability-side optimizationcapabilitiesin focus. 1) FI-drivenB/Sexpansion requiresanticipationforinterestrate cycle and credit spreads.2) Balanced global capital deployment demandsintegrated cross-border operational competencies.3)WhileM&Ais an importantway for B/S expansion (eg, cross-market/sector M&A among top brokers andintegration between brokers underthesame controller),execution challenge