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OVERWEIGHT Huatai Research 27 June 2025│China (Mainland) (Maintain) Quick Take AnalystZHUANG TingzhouSAC No.S0570519040002SFC No. BQZ933zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com+(86) 10 5679 3939 Attack on energy facilitiesled tosupply concernsinthe value chainIranian energy facilities have been damaged since the Israeli airstrikes on 13 June. According to Oilchem.net, the resulting natural gas supplydisruptions have led tosharp output cuts or shutdowns at methanol and synthetic ammonia facilities inIran that rely on cheap domestic gas. In 2024, China’s methanol imports totaled13.48mn tonnes(mt), accounting for roughly half ofdomestic merchant volume.Iran is the world’s second-largest methanol producer and the largest exporter, withits direct and re-export trade volume accounting for over half of China’s methanolimports.As a result,supply concerns in the Asian methanol market haveintensifiedand may impact domestic downstream product prices. In addition, dueto Iran’s sizable urea capacity, ammonia output cuts caused by gas shortagescould significantly influence international urea prices,although the impact ondomestic urea prices remains limited. Considering methanol accounts for a largeshare of acetic acid production costs, and with acetic acid S/D dynamics healthyand downstream demand relatively price-insensitive, we recommendwatchingthemethanol and acetic acid value chains. Our top picksareHualu HengshengandLuxi Chemical Group. AnalystZHANG XiongSAC No. S0570523100003SFC No. BVN325zhangxiong@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 Source: Wind, Huatai Research Attacks on Iran’s energy facilities may impactsupplySince13June,Israeli airstrikesonIranian energy facilities,particularly the South Pars gas field,a major natural gas producer,have directly caused extensiveshutdownsof facilitiesin the Assaluyeh industrial zone, home to 80% of Iran’smethanol capacity. Although some facilities near Bushehr Port remain operational,operatingrates have dropped sharply. Iranisthe world’s second-largest methanolproducer, with 2025 capacity at 17.16mt/year, over 80% of which is designated forexport,according to Tuo Mao Tong.Oilchem.net notes that urea feedstockammonia production in Iran, which also relies on natural gas, has similarly seensignificant curtailments. As a result, global methanol and urea prices have risen,with Middle East methanol/urea pricesatUSD2,785/395 per tonne as of 20 June,upby 11/5% wow. Going forward, the pace of recovery in Iran’s productionwarrants close attention,although we believe a supply recovery in the short term isunlikely. Stockrecommendations China’s methanol supply may take a hit, domestic urea prices stableChina’s methanol production primarily relies on coal.In 2024,apparent consumptionwas c.105mt,but according to Oilchem.net,actual merchantmethanol volume is only c. 30mt,as a large number of enterprises producemethanol in-house to supply their downstream operations. China imported 13.48mtof methanol in 2024, including 1.47mt directly from Iran. Accounting for re-exportsvia Oman, the UAE, and other countries,Solvent Informationdata suggest thatIranian-origin methanol makes up c.60%of China’s imports,or roughlyone-quarter of its merchant supply. Since 13 June, domestic methanol prices haverisenc.19%, and as of 20 June,methanol inventories at Chinese portswerejust50kt—the lowest level for this time of year since2021—further fueling supply-sideconcernsin the Chinese methanol market.On the urea side,Baiinfo.comreportsdomesticoutputremains ample, with the operating rateofureaproducersat 88%in May and some spare capacity still available. Additionally, China imposes certainrestrictions on urea exports, leaving domestic prices largely unaffected by Iranianproduction cuts. Methanol value chain tosee a turnaroundAccording toOilchem.net, 51% of China’s methanol in 2024 was used in olefin production.Otherusesincludedmethanolgasoline/formaldehyde/aceticacid/MTBE atshares of19/8/6/6%, with the rest going tomethane chlorides, DMF,DME, etc. Since most olefin producers are integratedwith methanol,and the operating rate ofoil-based olefin plantsis low,theolefinmarket wouldbe lessimpacted, in our view. However, downstream products of methanol such as aceticacid could see a cyclical upturn.Oilchem.netindicates that in 2024, downstreamacetic acid consumption comprised PTA solvents/vinyl acetate/acetate esters at24/17/19%. As of 20 June, East China acetic acid priceswereRMB2,443/tonne, upby1.2% wow, signaling an early recovery trend. Since early 2025,the operatingrate ofdomestic acetic acid plantshas remained above 80%, suggesting supplycouldenter a tight balance, in our view.Leading domestic acetic acid companiesinclude Hualu Hengsheng,Jiangsu Sopo Chemical Co, Shanghai Huayi Group,and Kingboard Holdings. We believe improving business climate for methanolcoulddrive a broader improvement across coal-based chemical products.Our toppicksareHualu Hengsheng, Luxi ChemicalGroup. Industryrisks:Iran-Israel conflict recurrence;dem