汇丰银行-亚洲存储芯片

EquitiesSemiconductors &Equipment Memory prices continue tohover higher Korea ◆Soaring memory prices and upward trends to continue Ricky Seo*Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and DisplayThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 3706 8777 ◆Supply-driven upcycle to persist while contents increase iniPhone and GDDR boost memory demand ◆Prefer Hynix (000660 KS, Buy) on HBM tech leadership;Samsung (005930 KS, Buy) on memory price rebound Hankil Chang*Associate, Korea Technology ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com+822 3706 8750 Soaring memory prices:We reiterate our positive view on the memory sector. Previously,we highlighted a faster memory turnaround from April (see:Asia Memory report, 10 March).We now see that memory prices are hovering higher throughout 2Q, with a higher level ofblended ASPs of +3-8% q-o-q due to 1) earlier phase-out of DDR4 products leading toaggressive purchases on the fear of shortages while solid demand for DDR4 is supportedby the legacy intel Raptor Lake CPU; 2) rush orders from server makers from risingconventional server investment at China and US CSPs, while smartphone makers are alsopursuing inventory restocking before tariffs are imposed after inventory declines;3) relatively lower yield in new tech transition at several DRAM makers; and 4) productioncut boosting NAND prices sharply. Higher DDR4 prices are positively affecting DDR5pricing as DRAM makers leverage DDR4 shortage for DDR5 price negotiations. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Upward trend to continue:We highlight1)recuring shortage in HBM from surgingorders related to GB200 and upcoming 50% contents growth in GB300;2)higherconventional DRAM prices thanks to rising Chinese server demand, amid fallinginventory at memory makers, while major DRAM makers scale down production, drivingshortages;3)NAND prices rebound from production cuts amid rising eSSD demand at AIservers from 3Q25e;4)additional demand from GDDR7 for AI servers in the Chinesemarket after the new HBM restriction, supporting enduring memory price hikes. Inaddition, continued underutilisation of HBM capacity and relatively lower yields, which arecurbing output growth and worsening capital efficiency, should support the continuedshortage. Moreover, a positive ASP impact from HBM3e 8 to 12 high upgrade andupcoming HBM3 to 4 upgrade would support a blended ASP increase. In terms of thelarger picture, the memory upcycle stems from the scale-back of capex by major memorymakers in 2H24 and pull-in demand following the inventory clear-out. We see less impactfrom inventory adjustments in 4Q25 given 1) limited bit output growth at major DRAMmakers; 2) relatively slower tech migration at Chinese players; and 3) the new iPhone’s50% DRAM content growth as well as surging GDDR7 orders from Chinese CSPs. Hynix to maintain HBM leadership:As previously highlighted (seeSK Hynix, Buy–leader in HBM, 11 February), Hynix is likely to maintain its leadership in HBM3e 12high andHBM4 until next year. Customers seem to favour Hynix’s collaboration with foundry leaderTSMC (2330 TT, TWD1,030, Buy) in base die manufacturing and chip-on-wafer on-silicon(CoWoS) packaging (2.5D) as well as Hynix’s leadership. We prefer Hynix (Buy, TP KRW360k) given:1) strong HBM production and ongoingleadership; 2) higher HBM sales contribution of 56% in 2026e vs 31% in 2024 and highermargins; and 3) dominance in server DRAM and eSSD. Our Buy rating and KRW88k TPon Samsung considers its trough valuation and potential benefit on its GDDR7 DRAM frommore use of lower performance GPU in China after the US restriction as well as morebenefits from conventional DRAM price hikes. HSBCGlobalResearchPodcasts Listentoourinsights Findoutmore Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates and historical data Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates and historical data Source: DRAMeXchange Source: DRAMeXchange Source: Company data, TrendForce estimates. Note: DDR5 shipment portion is forServer DRAM. Source: DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates. Note: Previous estimates are from thefollowing report:Faster memory price turnaround, 10 March Source: DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates. Note: Previous estimates are from thefollowing report:Faster memory price turnaround, 10 March Source: DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates. Note: Previous estimates are from thefollowing report:Faster memory price turnaround, 10 March Exhibit 11. DDR4 PC DRAM productioncuts and strong stocking d