2025年全球能源情景比较研究报告

WORLD ENERGY COUNCILThe World Energy Council is the world's oldest independent and impartialcommunity of energy leaders and practitioners. Through our HumanisingEnergy vision, we involve more people and communities in acceleratingclean and just energy transitions in all world regions. Formed in 1923, theCouncil has convened diverse interests from across the full energyecosystem for a century and today has over 3,oo0 member organisationsand a presence in nearly 100 countries. Our global network draws fromgovernments, private and state corporations, academia and civil society, aswell as current and future energy leaders. We effectively collaborate onimpact programmes and inform local, regional and global energy agendasin support of our enduring mission: to promote the sustainable use andsupply of energy for the benefit of ll people.Further details at www.worldenergy.org and on Linkedln and Twitter.Published by the World Energy Council 2025Copyright @ 2025 World Energy Council. All rights reserved. All or part ofthis publication may be used or reproduced as long as the following citationis included on each copy or transmission: Used by permission of the WorldEnergy Council?World Energy CouncilRegistered in England and Wales No. 4184478VAT Reg. No. GB123380248Registered OficeSuite 101-102Hamilton House1 Temple AvenueLondonEC4Y OHAUnited Kingdom ABOUTWORLD ENERGYSCENARIOSScenarios are equally plausible but divergent stories of the future thatserve as platforms for strategic conversations. While forecasts may try toproject an “official future” built on the past, scenarios help leaders practicedealing with the unpredictable.They are essential tools for navigating uncertainty - enabling energy leadersto explore choices, test assumptions, and make better-informed policy andstrategy decisions.The World Energy Council is committed to using scenarios to uncoveropportunities for alignment and collaboration, supporting more equitableand inclusive energy additions and transitions. FROM INSIGHTS TO ACTIONThis review offers tools to activate insights, not just absorb themYou'll find:BREAKOUT BOXES highlighting demand shocks, ArtificialIntelligence (Al) disruption, and fragile supply chainsROLE-BASED ACTIVATION BRIEF guidingpolicymakers, CEOs, strategists, and regional leadersINSIGHTS ACTIVATION TOOLKIT with reflectionquestions and decision-use promptsYROCKS & RIVERS narrative archetypes to explorebeing blindsided by relying on the ability to predict the future.Howmightmode.Whatif tomothan soft, energy system? mandshocks,climate EXECUTIVESUMMARYuncertaintyWORLD ENERGY COUNCIL WHAT WE'RE SEEING ACROSS THE 2024-2025SCENARIO LANDSCAPEuptor. Al, affordability, ifestyle shifts, and.Al and digitalinfrastructurepply, tech access, and infrastructure constraints are the newe will fail without legitin HOW TO USE THIS DOCUMENTPOLICY MAKERGo to Role-based activation brief (p. 21) 7C-SUITEGo to Insights at a Glance (p. 6) 7O Use it to spot trend-breaks, emerging risks and new disruptorsANALYSTGo to Key Numbers (p. 23)FACILITATOR / EDUCATORGo to Navigating net zero ambitions (p. 39) 7O Use it to engage diverse stakeholders idecision making PAGESTABLE OFCONTENTSBACKGROUNDANDOBJECTIVESGLOBALSCENARIOSCOMPARISONREVIEWKEYNUMBERSWHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUSCENARIOSOVERVIEWACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 51123363949 INTRODUCTIONBACKGROUNDAND OBJECTIVESThis report by the World Energy Council provides a comprehensive analysisand comparison of recent global energy scenarios produced by a diverserange of international organisations. The objective of this comparativereview is to identify significant trends, divergences, and commonalitiesacross these scenarios to enrich strategic thinking and inform decision-making in an increasingly uncertain global energy landscape.In response to rapid changes and heightened global uncertainties, scenarioanalyses have become crucial for anticipating and navigating possiblefutures. By systematically examining and comparing scenarios and outlooksfrom various leading organisations,this report highlights critical insights,key areas of agreement, significant divergences, and emerging trends inglobal energy futures.The findings from this comparison serve multiple purposes. Primarily, theyvalidate and challenge the current understanding captured within theWorld Energy Scenario Foundations: Rocks and Rivers, ensuring their continued relevance and rigour. Additionally, this comparative analysisoffers an impartial foundational framework from which stakeholders acrosssectors and regions can develop more detailed, customised scenariostailored to their specific contexts and strategic needs.Ultimately, the objective of this global scenarios comparison is to facilitatebetter-informed, collaborative dialogues among energy leaders worldwide.It supports stakeholders in proactively adapting strategies, exploringinnovative pathways for energy transitions, and seizing opportunities forcooperation that can contribute to sustainable, resilient, an