纳米比亚：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；纳米比亚执行主任的发言

NAMIBIA IMFCountryReportNo.25/132 June2025 2025ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION—PRESSRELEASE;STAFFREPORT;ANDSTATEMENTBYTHEEXECUTIVEDIRECTORFORNAMIBIA UnderArticleIVoftheIMF’sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2025ArticleIVconsultationwithNamibia,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage: APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsJune11,2025,considerationofthestaffreportthatconcludedtheArticleIVconsultationwithNamibia. TheStaffReportpreparedbyastaffteamoftheIMFfortheExecutiveBoard’s considerationonJune11,2025,followingdiscussionsthatendedon May13,2025,withtheofficialsofNamibiaoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonMay28,2025. AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFstaff. AStatementbytheExecutiveDirectorforNamibia. Thedocumentslistedbelowhavebeenorwillbeseparatelyreleased.SelectedIssues TheIMF’stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthorities’policyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments. Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom InternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201 E-mail:publications@imf.orgWeb:http://www.imf.org InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C. ©2025InternationalMonetaryFund PR25/198 IMFExecutiveBoardConcludes2025ArticleIVConsultationwithNamibia FORIMMEDIATERELEASE Namibia’seconomyfaceschallengesfromheightenedglobaltradepolicytensions,increasedweathershocks,astructuralshiftintheglobaldiamondmarket,andhighstructuralunemployment. Ensuringmacroeconomicstabilityrequiresmaintainingfiscalprudencewhilecreatingspaceforgrowth-enhancingmeasures,managingthemonetarypolicytosafeguardthepeg,andenhancingtheresilienceofthefinancialsector. Togenerateemploymentthroughinclusiveprivatesector-ledgrowththatisweather-shock-resilient,boldstructuralreformsareessential.Additionally,acomprehensivestrategyisneededtoleveragethepotentialopportunitiespresentedbyrecentoildiscoveries. Washington,DC–June17,2025:TheExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)completedtheArticleIVConsultationforNamibia.1TheauthoritieshaveconsentedtothepublicationoftheStaffReportpreparedforthisconsultation.2 Namibia’seconomicgrowthdeceleratedfrom5.4percentin2022to3.7percentin2024asadeclineinproductioninresponsetolowerdiamondpricesoutweighedmomentumstemmingfromrisinggoldanduraniumprices.Oilexplorationplateauedin2024followingaspikein2023,whileagriculturecontractedsharplyduetothedroughtof2023–24,themostsevereinacentury.Inflationhasfallen,reflectingadropinfoodandfuelpricesininternationalmarkets. Lookingahead,growthisprojectedtoremainsubduedinthenearandmediumterm.Theendofthedroughtisexpectedtoboostgrowthin2025;however,increasedglobaltradepolicyuncertainty,particularlyrelatedtoU.S.tariffs,andtheweakdiamondmarketwilldampenmomentum,withgrowthforecastat3¾percentfor2025and2026.Overthemediumterm,growthisprojectedtobeabout3percent,constrainedbystructuralrigiditiesdespiteincreased 1UnderArticleIVoftheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Astaffteamvisitsthecountry,collectseconomicandfinancialinformation,anddiscusseswithofficialsthecountry'seconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Onreturntoheadquarters,thestaffpreparesareport,whichformsthebasisfordiscussionbytheExecutiveBoard. 2UndertheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,publicationofdocumentsthatpertaintomembercountriesisvoluntaryandrequiresthememberconsent.Thestaffreportwillbeshortlypublishedonthewww.imf.org/Namibiapage. 2 publiccapitalexpenditure.AverageCPIinflationisprojectedtoeaseto4.1percentin2025andremainaround4.5percentinthemediumterm. Riskstotheoutlookaretiltedtothedownside.Keyexternaldownsiderisksincludecommoditypricefluctuations,furtherworseningofglobaltradetensions,adeepeningofeconomicfragmentation,andtighterglobalfinancialconditions.Domesticdownsiderisksincludesocialdiscontentresultingfromcontinuedhighunemploymentandinequalityandincreasedvolatilityassociatedwithweathershocks.Upsiderisksincludeaneasingofglobaltradepolicytensionsandfasterdevelopmentofoil,gas,andgreenhydrogenprojects. ExecutiveBoardAssessment3 ExecutiveDirectorsagreedwiththethrustofthestaffappraisal.TheytookpositivenoteofNamibia’seconomicresilience,withslowinginflationandimprovedexternalposition,despitethechallengingexternalenvironmentandwelcomedthenewgovernment’scommitmenttofosteringinclusivegrowthandbuildresiliencetoclimateshocks.Notingthesubduedgrowthoutlookreflectingglobaltradepolicyuncertaintyanddomesticstructuralrigidities,highunemployment,andinequality,DirectorsemphasizedtheneedforfurthereffortstoharnessNamibia’seconomicpotentialandraisepercapitaincomebypromotingaprivatesectorled,inclusive,weatherresilient,anddiversifiedeconomy. Directorswelcomedtheauthorities’commitmenttomaintainingfiscaldisciplineandcreatingspaceforgrowthenhancingmeasures.Theycalledforsustainedan