以伊冲突对期货价格影响

receipt, or reading of this report.以伊冲突对期货价格影响摘要AbstractSources: Wind, Refinitv, Bloomberg, CITIC Futures.风险管控，警惕情绪交易带来的过度波动风险。数据来源：Wind、Refinitiv、Bloomberg、中信期货研究所姜婧Jiang Jing从业资格号Qualification No：F3018552桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159李苏横Li Suheng从业资格号Qualification No：F03093505李云旭Li Yunxu从业资格号Qualification No：F03141405陈子昂Chen Ziang从业资格号Qualification No：F03108012聂鑫妍Nie Xinyan从业资格号Qualification No：F03100678李青Li Qing从业资格号Qualification No：F3056728武嘉璐Wu Jialu从业资格号Qualification No：F03100682黄舒瑶Huang Shuyao从业资格号Qualification No：F03108055程小庆Cheng Xiaoqing从业资格号Qualification No：F3083989朱善颖Zhu Shanying从业资格号Qualification No：F03138401CITIC FuturesInternational Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 目录Content1.Equity Index股指.........................................................................................................32.Chinese Government Bonds国债.............................................................................43.Exchange Rates汇率..................................................................................................54.Precious Metals贵金属...............................................................................................65.Crude Oil原油..............................................................................................................76.Methanol甲醇..............................................................................................................87.Natural Gas天然气......................................................................................................98.Nonferrous Metals有色............................................................................................109.Agriculture农业.........................................................................................................11Freight Shipping航运...............................................................................................12 210. 1.Equity Index股指The A-share market operates "independently," with external events potentially serving assentimentalcatalysts. From a fundamental perspective, the Iran-Israel conflict is a Middle Easterngeopolitical event. A-share listed companies have limited businessexposure in both countries, soeven if the conflict escalates, the impact on earnings would be confined to specific sectors; it wouldprimarily affect short-term market sentiment. The recent main contradiction in the market has beenthe crowdedness of funds in small and micro-cap stocks.If geopolitical events trigger a flight to safety, leading to a cooling down of speculative hotspotsor a decline in risk appetite, it could catalyze the excess returns of small and micro-cap stocks turningnegative, prompting a reduction in neutral strategy positions and forming a phased pullback. Againstthe backdrop of a structural market in the second half of the year, this could, in turn, become anexcellent opportunity for medium-term allocation.Risks:Geopolitical events may cause a flight to safety, leading to a cooling down of speculativehotspots, a decline in risk appetite, and catalyzing the excess returns of small and micro-cap stocksturning negative, forming a phasedretreat.A股行情“以我为主”，外围事件或成情绪催化。基本面上看，伊朗以色列冲突属于中东地缘事件，而A股上市公司在两国的业务敞口有限，即便战争事态扩大，对业绩冲击偏局部行业，更多是影响短期市场情绪。近期市场主要矛盾在小微盘资金拥挤，若地缘事件造成资金避险，热点炒作降温，或风险偏好下降，可能催化小微盘超额收益转负，带动中性策略降仓，形成阶段性回调，在下半年结构性行情的背景下，反而成为中期的布局良机。风险提示：地缘事件可能造成资金避险，导致热点炒作降温、风险偏好下降，催化小微盘超额收益转负并形成阶段性回调。 3 42.Chinese Government Bonds国债A short-term increase in risk aversion might provide some upside for the bond market, but theimpact is expected to be limited, and the bond market will likely remain volatile overall. For the bondmarket, the event's transmission chain is likely relatively long, with the most direct impact stemmingfrom changes in risk aversion sentiment. That is, an increase in risk aversion might lead to astrengthening of the bond market, similar to a "stock-bond seesaw" dynamic.However, it's worth notingthat the bond market is currently in an overall range-bound oscillationpattern. Recently, influenced by factors such as easing liquidity, the bond market has generallystrengthened since mid-May. Short-term bonds, specifically, have stabilized and rebounded due tocontinuous buying by large banks. Long-term bonds have also strengthened, with the 10-yeargovernment bond yield falling to 1.64% on Wednesday. After approaching previous lows, profit-takingsentiment might increase again.Risks:The bond market is currently in a range-bound oscillation pattern; attention should bepaid to the short-term disruption of bond prices due to changes in risk aversion.短期避险情绪升温可能对债市形成一定利多，但是预计影响不大，债市整体或仍偏震荡。从盘面上看，国债期货今日整体呈现小幅上涨，T、TF、TS、TL主力合约分别上涨0.02%、0.04%、0.03%、0.02%。对于债市而言，事件传导链条或相对较长，比较直接的或是避险情绪的变动，即避险情绪升温可能带动债市有所走强，如股债跷跷板逻辑上演。不过值得注意的是，债市目前整体呈区间震荡格局，近期来看，受资金面转松等影响，5月中旬后债市整体有所走强，其中短端叠加大行持续买入短债影响，呈现企稳反弹。长端方面也有所走强，周三10Y国债收益率下行至1.64%，而在靠近前低后，止盈情绪或又有所升温。风险提示：债市目前处于区间震荡格局，需关注避险情绪变化对债券价格的短期扰动。 3.Exchange Rates汇率The RMB has weakened due to the Israeli airstrike on