提升战术定位策略

AnalystZHANG JiqiangSAC No. S0570518110002SFC No. AMB145zhangjiqiang@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 Huatai Research 17 June 2025│China (Mainland) Convertible bond weekly Our key weekly viewsTheChinese mainland’s stock market’s core tension lies in unfulfilled policy supportand earnings expectations,triggering see-saw index movements.However,we see a low probability of systemic risks and expect continuedrange-bound fluctuations. Investors should monitor interim results and thematicshifts, maintaining a tactical approach with defensive plays in the near term,whileimplementing rotation strategies across sector trends, policy expectations, andinstitutional positioning.On convertible bonds (CBs), we maintain a neutral stance,advisinginvestors to adopt a similarly tactical approach.For CB selection:prioritize large/mid-cap bond-oriented issues benefiting from bank CB exits; nextfocus on sub-RMB125 small/mid-cap balanced-equity hybrids with low premiumsfor optionality plays;and explore select near-maturity issues with term negotiationpotential. Equity: capped upside and floor downside warrant tactical approachThe market’s core tension stems from unfulfilled policy support and earnings expectations,driving sentiment swings,sector divergence,and episodic riskappetite cooling. However,we seemedium-term buffers remain robust, such asabundant off-market liquidity, on-market quasi-stabilization funds,andimprovingexternal conditions. These factors suggest limited systemic risks and containeddownside formainland China stockindices. Wefavorrange-bound trading andadvocatetactical positioning over trend-following strategies,with gradualaccumulation around index anchor points. We anticipatethree near-term focusesfor rotation:sectortrends, policy-sensitive plays, and institutionalpositioning. Sector: HDY stability, industry champions positioning, thematic shiftsAt sector level, focus on1) value-driven sectors eg, high-dividend-yield (HDY) onesmaintaining bond-like attributes and institutional allocation rationale;2)Chineseindustrial leaders with global competitiveness,awaiting long-termre-rating (lithium battery, precision components, high-end construction machinery,consumerelectronics/appliances leaders).Monitor anti-involutionary trends inautos sector and potential spillover toPVindustries; 3) AI/nuclear fusion themeswithsufficient corrections—buildingpositions around narrative traction ahead ofcatalyst events; 4)policy-sensitive home furnishing/property-related subsectorsandtraditional Chinese medicineplays absorbing innovative drug demand;and5)defense/defense trade, particularly military equipment subsectors with overseasexpansion potential. CBs: guidance from allocation demandBased on available data, we thinkthe peak ofCBallocation demand may have passed,but it remains significantly stronger than supply.Key CB demandindicators include investor structure data, fund quarterly reports, andCB ETFshare data. Our analysis combining these three dimensions shows:1) robustCBdemand in 1Q25: rapid growth inCB& quasi-CBfund scales, rising proportion offund and insurance holdings in the overall market, andCB ETF share ratioreaching highs;2)subsequent marginal weakening of allocation demand: notabledecline indirect insurance investment share,with ETF ratios also graduallydecreasing;3)current demand remains relatively strong,particularly withallocation demand markedly better than2024.Amid recent marginal demandweakening, valuations hover at high levels with limited upward breakout potential.In conclusion, we believeCBs still enjoy supply-demand support, with higherprobability of valuation expansion than equity-driven momentum. (Continued on next page) CBadvice: tactical approachalsoapplicableRecentCB valuations show limited fluctuations,with overall attractiveness remaining subdued. Returns primarily hinge on underlying stock performance andinstitutional allocation demand.While we maintain that S/D dynamics remain themost favorable factor, constrainedCBselection opportunities persist as the keypain point, keeping our neutral stance. Mirroring equity strategies, we adviseinvestors to adopt tactical positioning based onindex levels andCBvaluations,while actively seeking undervalued individual bonds. Focus on 1) mid/large-capbond-likeCBsbenefitingfrombankCBdelistings;2)small/mid-capbalanced/equity-tilted issues below RMB125 with low premiums for option valueplay;3) near-maturity bonds withterm negotiationpotential. Risks: underlying stock performance belowourexpectations; liquidity shocks frombond fund redemptions; individual bond delistings or credit risks. Disclaimers Analyst Certification I/We, ZHANG Jiqiang, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views ofthe analyst(s)about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this repor