自下而上分析师最佳建议（2025年6月）

India | Equity Strategy Bottom-up Analyst Top Ideas (Jun '25) STRATEGY NOTE Our analyst bottom-up top ideas refresh has 22 BUYs and 9 UPFs out of a216 stock coverage. Fresh inclusion to Buys are Chola (replace SHFL), HAL,Jindal Stainless, Vishal Mega Mart, Welspun Living and Infosys (replaceCoforge). New UPF ideas are Hero Moto, Tech Mahindra and Dr. Reddy's. Top Buy ideas Financials HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN; Mcap: US$174bn) •We feel that the combination of a reduction in LDR from peak of 110% last year to 96%now, stable asset quality and healthy deposit growth over the past year is encouragingthe bank to return to lending markets.•We have factored 16% CAGR in deposits and 12% in loans over Fy25-28E and arriveat an LDR of 87% by Mar-28. The improvement in loan growth can abate investors'apprehensions about owning the stock and can act as rerating catalyst.•While rate cuts will have interim drag on NIMs, improving loan mix, stable credit costs andbetter cross-sells can aid core profits. We have factored margins compression of ~15bpsin FY26 and slight improvement thereafter.•Asset quality has held up well and with retail asset quality easing across the system, wethink HDFC Bank is relatively better placed vs peers; we see credit costs around 50-55bpsover FY26-27E.•HDFC is our top pick as we see better growth momentum and stable asset quality aspositive re-rating catalysts.•Valuations have rerated at 18x FY26 PE / 2.4x FY26 adjusted PB, but relative premium towell run global banks has narrowed. We rate it as Buy with PT of Rs2,340, based on 2.5xJun-27 adjusted PB and value of stake in subs.•Recent report: 4QFY25: Earnings Ahead; On Track for Rebound Year; Stays Among Top-Picks ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN; Mcap: US$119bn) •We believe ICICI Bank is well-placed to deliver on growth and quality with healthy depositgrowth, lowest LDR among pvt. banks that can aid industry-leading credit growth.•Bank has done well on casa front with casa ratio flat YoY, a unique trend among largebanks, reflecting client wins in retail and commercial segments.•We expect asset quality trends to be manageable as bank has focused on better ratedcustomers in unsecured and SME/ business banking loans.•While rate cuts will have interim drag on NIMs, slower rise in discretionary costs (onbranches/ staffing) can aid cost synergies and earnings growth. We have factoredmargins compression of ~20bps in FY26 and stable thereafter.•Over FY25-28, we see loan Cagr of 15% and credit costs of 50-55bps, driving 12% Cagrin earnings and ROE of 17% in FY26.•Valuations are deservedly (in our view) at premium to peers at 2.6x FY26 adjusted PB and17x adjusted PE.•ICICI Bank is among our top picks with price target of Rs1,710, based on 2.7x Jun-27adjusted PB & value of stake in subs.•Recent Report: 4QFY25: Continues to Deliver; Stays Among Top Picks Mahesh Nandurkar * | Equity Analyst91 224224 6120 | mnandurkar@jefferies.com Abhinav Sinha * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6121 | abhinav.sinha@jefferies.com Priyank Shah * | Equity Associate+91 22 4224 6142 | pshah9@jefferies.com Max Financial Services (MAXF IN; Mcap: US$6bn) •Axis Max Life (sub of Max Financial) is our preferred pick in the life insurance sector withmultiple levers ahead starting from rebranding benefits, closer partnerships and insuranceamendment bill.•Clarity on regulations with status quo on banca is a positive for the sector & Axis Max Life, as>50% of premium comes from banca•Deeper engagement and Rebranding with Axis will improve brand recall & and even offer somescope to improve pricing•Insurance Amendment Bill opens the possibility of merger of holdco/listed entity with LI & trimHoldco discount - board has also approved this along with 3Q results•The bill will also offer them the opportunity to convert into a Composite and offer healthinsurance; this can expand TAM meaningfully. Among listed insurers, Axis Max Life may gainmore as it is the only insurer with no direct presence in health insurance•We estimate APE/VNB to grow at 15/16% CAGR over FY25-28E with slightly higher marginsof ~50-60bps over the next 3 years.•Valuations at 2.2x P/EV FY26E and 15x P/VNB FY26E are at (20-40% discount to HDFC Life.We rate the stock as BUY with PT of Rs1,700, based on 2x Jun-27 P/EV.• Recent report: 4QFY25: Good Performance Despite Challenges; Stays Among Top Picks Bajaj Finance (BAF IN; Mcap: US$68bn) •Bajaj Finance asset quality trends are stabilising now, after a short period of surge as the olderbook clears out & new book has been built with tighter underwriting guardrails.•Guidance on AUM growth for FY26 has been reset tad lower at 24-25% but still credible forits size, while longer term growth outlook remains unchanged at 25-27%. We feel this is apragmatic approach as BAF seeks to further correct credit quality and ensure slip-ups, as seenin FY25, do not recur•Reduction in policy rates and easing of liquidity conditions should aid margins & earnings. Wethink BAF can deliver earnings growth of