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提前下单并自提:休闲快餐客流量可能揭示的信息

休闲服务 2025-06-12 Jefferies Aaron
报告封面

Equity ResearchJune 12, 2025 USA | Restaurants Order Ahead & Pickup Instead: What May FastCasual Foot Traffic Tells Us Placer Traffic by Category (QoQ & MoM)Please note this data should serve as a directional indicator, interpreted as relativeperformance among brands/categories, anddoes not indicate absolute performance. Fast Casual foot traffic increased +350bps m/m in May, with most categorieshigher, incl Mexican +360bps, Burger +340bps, Sandwich +260bps, and Pizza+40bps, while Mediterranean -100bps and Salad -160bps. Note: Black Box FastCasual traffic improved +310bps m/m in May. For 2Q-to-date through May vs1Q, Fast Casual foot traffic was nearly flat (-20bps) with 3 categories higher/3lower. May brand performance was mixed, but most improved.See table at right. Brand performance mixed in May, and for 2Q-to-date:For May vs April, Placer.ai foot traffic datahighlighted strength at PTLO (+880bps), SHAK (+810bps) helped by new digital/loyalty offerings,WING (+510bps), CMG (+460bps), and BROS (+270bps) helped by ongoing mobile-order-and-payrollout among other drivers. We'd also flag LOCO +290bps m/m in May, possibly driven by a greaterfocus on low price point value. Meanwhile, CAVA (-240bps) moderated m/m and softness appearedto linger at SBUX (-130bps) as the co. makes org changes both in corporate and in stores. Forcalendar 2Q-to-date trends vs 1Q, the Fast Casual group remains nearly event split between gainersand losers - see table to the right - with PTLO and BROS in the lead while WING, CMG, and CAVAhave seen foot traffic slowing (recall this is directional only in comparing y/y trends in 2Qtd vs 1Q). Andy Barish * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1524 | abarish@jefferies.com Alexander Slagle, CFA * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1508 | aslagle@jefferies.com Marshall Pittman * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1467 | mpittman@jefferies.com Ivan Yu * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1441 | iyu@jefferies.com Fast Casual Monthly & Quarterly Same-Store Traffic by Category Please note that this data should serve as a directional indicator, interpreted as relative performance among brands/categories; it does not indicate absolute performance. Because of limitations, we areunable to publish an extended monthly history of brand-level performance in the tables below, but we can do so in the charts on the following pages. Fast Casual & Small-Box Monthly Traffic by Company & Brand Please note that this data should serve as a directional indicator, interpreted as relative performance among brands/categories, and does not indicate absolute performance. We are unable to publishan extended quarterly history of brand-level performance in the tables below. Fast Casual & Small-box Quarterly Traffic by Company & Brand Appendix: Brands by Category Fast Casual:Shake Shack, The Habit, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Portillo's, Noodles & Company, Potbelly Sandwich Shop, Wingstop, Flower Child, Pollo Tropical, El Pollo Loco, sweetgreen, CAVA, Panera BreadBurger:BURGERFI, Fatburger, Five Guys, Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers, Fuddruckers, Hopdoddy Burger Bar, Shake Shack, Smashburger, The Habit Burger, Super Duper BurgersSandwich:Portillo's, Charley's Philly Steaks, Firehouse Subs, Jersey Mike's Subs, Pita Pit, Potbelly Sandwich Shop, McAlister's Deli, Panera Bread Salad:Just Salad, sweetgreen, Tender Greens Pizza:Blaze Pizza, Marco's Pizza, MOD Pizza, Pie Five Pizza Co., Pieology Pizzeria, Round Table Pizza Mexican:Chipotle Mexican Grill, Qdoba Mexican Grill, Fuzzy's Taco Shop, Baja Fresh, Cafe Rio Mexican Grill, El Pollo Loco, Freebirds World Burrito, Moe's Southwest Grill, On The Border Mexican Grill& Cantina, Rubio's, Taco Cabana Mediterranean:CAVA, Luna Grill, Pita Jungle, Taziki's, Mezeh Mediterranean Grill Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Andy Barish, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Alexander Slagle, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Marshall Pittman, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to th