2025年6月16日零售周度快照

Weekly Retail Snapshot 6/16/25 Input costs were mixed last week. The biggest mover was WTIOil posting a low double-digit increase, followed by the WCIIndex increasing LSD. In contrast, the Spot Intermodal andCotton both decreased LSD. Year-over-year demand trendsmoderated sequentially. U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel & FootwearNEUTRAL U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel &FootwearAdrienne Yih+1 212 526 5257adrienne.yih@barclays.comBCI, US We appreciate your5-star votein the2025Extel All-America Research Surveyin theRetailingDepartment Stores & SpecialtySoftlinescategory.View our analysts »Vote 5 Stars forBarclays » Paul Kearney+1 212 526 1964paul.kearney@barclays.comBCI, US Weekly Demand Tracker Redbook Weekly Same Store Sales (SSS) growth as of 6/7/25:Demand metrics per the AllStores index moderated, as the Discount Stores index moderated while the Department Storesindex inflected negatively. The Redbook All Stores index was +4.7% year-over-year, driven bystrength at Discount Stores (+5.0% y/y), partiallyoffsetby Department Stores (-0.2% y/y). Michael Vu+1 212 526 9568michael.vu@barclays.comBCI, US Background:Our demand tracker is based on the Redbook Same Store Sales (SSS) Indexprovided by Bloomberg. The Redbook Index covers a sample of about 9,000 generalmerchandise stores spanning apparel specialty stores, department stores, discount stores, drugstores, miscellaneous, and warehouse clubs. In this report, we focus on weekly SSS of DiscountStores and Department Stores, along with the All Stores General Merchandise Index. Angus Kelleher+1 212 526 0081angus.kelleherferguson@barclays.comBCI, US •Redbook Weekly All Stores SSS growthwas +4.7% year-over-year down from +4.9%reported last week. This brings the trailing 4-week moving average to +5.3% year-over-year. •Redbook Department Stores SSS growthwas -0.2% year-over-year down from +1.1%reported last week. This brings the trailing 4-week moving average to +1.1% year-over-year. •Redbook Discount Stores SSS growthwas +5.0% year-over-year down from +6.0% reportedlast week. This brings the trailing 4-week moving average to +6.2% year-over-year. FIGURE 1. Redbook – All Stores SSS Growth Source: Weekly Index provided by Bloomberg, Barclays Research Weekly Cost Inflation Tracker The WCI Container Freight benchmark (ocean) was +0.5% w/w for a year-over-year comp of-26.2% (from -25.2% y/y in the prior week). The InTek Spot Intermodal rate was -2.6% w/w for ayear-over-year comp of -4.0% (from -0.2% y/y in the prior week). Cotton was -1.9% w/w for ayear-over-year comp of -10.8% (from -9.1% y/y in the prior week). WTI oil was +12.9% w/w for ayear-over-year comp of -7.1% (from -14.5% y/y in the prior week). •The WCI Composite Container FreightBenchmarkrate of$3,543/40ftcontainer as of6/12/25 is -26.2% year-over-year and +0.5% week-over-week. This is -65.9% from its peak on9/23/21 of $10,377/40ftcontainer. •InTek Freight and Logistics Door-to-Door Spot Intermodalrate of$2,051/53ftcontainer asof 6/9/25 is -4.0% year-over-year and -2.6% week-over-week. This is -51.7% from its peak on11/8/21 of $4,242/53ftcontainer. •No. 2 Cottonprice of $0.66/lb as of 6/13/25 is -10.8% year-over-year and -1.9% week-over-week. This is -54.6% from its peak on 4/29/22 of $1.46/lb. •WTI Oilprice of $72.90/bbl as of 6/13/25 is -7.1% year-over-year and +12.9% week-over-week.This is -39.6% from its peak on 6/10/22 of $120.67/bbl. FIGURE 3. World Container Index Composite Container Freight Benchmark Rate per40ftBox FIGURE 4. InTek Freight and Logistics Door-to-Door Spot Rates in US$ per Full53ftContainer Load Source: Weekly Prices from Bloomberg, Barclays Research FIGURE 6. WTI Crude $/bbl Source: Weekly Prices from Bloomberg, Barclays Research Monthly Import Tracker Monthly U.S. Consumer Goods, U.S. Apparel Imports, and Select U.S. Ports InboundContainer Volumes as of 4/30/25:In April 2025, U.S. Consumer Goods Imports were +5.2%year-over-year, moderating from +56.4% reported in March 2025, while U.S. Apparel & FootwearImports were +8.5% in April 2025 year-over-year, increasing from +5.9% reported in March 2025.Total Inbound Containers at select U.S. Ports (Port of LA, LB, NY & NJ) in April 2025 were +10.1%year-over-year, moderating from +10.9% reported in March 2025. Background:Our U.S. Goods Import Tracker is based on the U.S. International Trade in Goodsand Services monthly report from the United States Census Bureau and the United StatesBureau of Economic Analysis. The data points are updated as of the April 2025 publication,which was released on 6/5/2025. U.S. Consumer Goods is based on the consumer goodscommodity group and U.S. Apparel & Footwear, which is the sum of the cotton apparel andhousehold goods, nontextile apparel and household goods, wool apparel and household goods,and footwear categories. Additionally, we track select U.S. Ports inbound (imports) containers inTEUs (20-foot equivalent units) based on the U.S. Bill of Lading Imports for the Port of LosAngeles (