2025年6月2日零售周度快照

Restricted - External U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel & FootwearNEUTRALU.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel &FootwearAdrienne Yih+1 212 526 5257adrienne.yih@barclays.comBCI, USPaul Kearney+1 212 526 1964paul.kearney@barclays.comBCI, USMichael Vu+1 212 526 9568michael.vu@barclays.comBCI, USAngus Kelleher+1 212 526 0081angus.kelleherferguson@barclays.comBCI, US FIGURE 1. Redbook – All Stores SSS GrowthSource: Weekly Index provided by Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 2. Redbook – Department Stores & Discount Stores SSS Growth-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Source: Weekly Index provided by Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Sep-22Nov-22Y/Y Change in Department Stores SSS GrowthY/Y Change In Discount Stores SSS Growth FIGURE 3. World Container Index Composite Container Freight Benchmark Rate per40ftBoxSource: Weekly Prices from Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchWeekly Cost Inflation TrackerThe WCI Container Freight benchmark (ocean) was +10.2% w/w for a year-over-year comp of-40.7% (from -44.1% y/y in the prior week). Cotton was -2.3% w/w for a year-over-year comp of-16.6% (from -14.7% y/y in the prior week). WTI oil was -1.5% w/w for a year-over-year comp of-21.2% (from -20.8% y/y in the prior week).•The WCI Composite Container FreightBenchmarkrate of$2,508/40ftcontainer as of5/29/25 is -40.7% year-over-year and +10.2% week-over-week. This is -75.8% from its peak on9/23/21 of $10,377/40ftcontainer.•InTek Freight and Logistics Door-to-Door Spot Intermodalrate of$2,116/53ftcontainer asof 5/12/25 is -0.1% year-over-year and -0.4% week-over-week. This is -50.1% from its peak on11/8/21 of $4,242/53ftcontainer.We note that updated data for the Spot Intermodal was notavailable over the last two weeks.•No. 2 Cottonprice of $0.67/lb as of 5/30/25 is -16.6% year-over-year and -2.3% week-over-week. This is -54.1% from its peak on 4/29/22 of $1.46/lb.•WTI Oilprice of $60.63/bbl as of 5/30/25 is -21.2% year-over-year and -1.5% week-over-week.This is -49.8% from its peak on 6/10/22 of $120.67/bbl. 3 2 June 2025 FIGURE 4. InTek Freight and Logistics Door-to-Door Spot Rates in US$ per Full53ftContainer LoadSource: Weekly Prices from Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5. No. 2 Cotton Prices $/lbAverage,$0.81-$0.50-$0.25$0.00$0.25$0.50$0.75$1.00$1.25$1.50Price ( L )AverageY/Y Change ( R )Source: Weekly Prices from Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 FIGURE 6. WTI Crude $/bblSource: Weekly Prices from Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 June 2025 Monthly Import TrackerMonthly U.S. Consumer Goods, U.S. Apparel Imports, and Select U.S. Ports InboundContainer Volumes as of 3/31/25:In March 2025, U.S. Consumer Goods Imports were +56.0%year-over-year, increasing from +24.5% reported in February 2025, while U.S. Apparel &Footwear Imports were +8.8% in March 2025 year-over-year, moderating from +10.2% reportedin February 2025. Total Inbound Containers at select U.S. Ports (Port of LA, LB, NY & NJ) in March2025 were +8.1% year-over-year, moderating from +10.2% reported in February 2025.Background:Our U.S. Goods Import Tracker is based on the U.S. International Trade in Goodsand Services monthly report from the United States Census Bureau and the United StatesBureau of Economic Analysis. The data points are updated as of the March 2025 publication,which was released on 5/6/2025. U.S. Consumer Goods is based on the consumer goodscommodity group and U.S. Apparel & Footwear, which is the sum of the cotton apparel andhousehold goods, nontextile apparel and household goods, wool apparel and household goods,and footwear categories. Additionally, we track select U.S. Ports inbound (imports) containers inTEUs (20-foot equivalent units) based on the U.S. Bill of Lading Imports for the Port of LosAngeles (LA), Port of Long Beach (LB), and Ports of New York and New Jersey (NY/NJ). In theaggregate, these three ports accounted for more than 50% of the total TEUs handled in the U.S.during 2022.•U.S. Consumer Goods import value was $103.17bn,which is +56.0% y/y in March 2025, upfrom +24.5% y/y reported in February 2025, and +27.9% m/m, up from +3.1% m/m reportedlast month. This brings the trailing 3-month moving average to +35.5% year-over-year, upfrom the prior month (February 2025) trailing 3-month moving average of +21.7%.•U.S. Apparel & Footwear import value was $7.06bn,which is +8.8% y/y in March 2025,down from +10.2% y/y reported in February 2025, and +8.4% m/m, up from +2.4% m/mreported last month. This brings the trailing 3-month moving average to +10.9% year-over-year, down from the prior month (February 2025) trailing 3-month moving average of +11.4%.•Total Inbound Container Volumes at select U.S. Portswere 1.19mn TEUs,which is +8.1%y/y in March 2025, down from +10.2% y/y reported in February 2025, and +3.1% m/m, up from-6.5% m/m reported last month. This brings the trailing 3-month moving average to +9.6%year-over-year, down from the prior month (February 2025) trailing 3-month moving averageof +15.6%. 6 FIGURE 7. U.S. Dollar