政府债券获青睐，信贷需求待复苏

Banks OVERWEIGHT Huatai Research 16 June 2025│China (Mainland) Quick Take (Maintain) AnalystSHEN JuanSAC No. S0570514040002SFC No.BPN843shenjuan@htsc.com+(86) 755 2395 2763 Governmentbonds remained key driver, credit demand yet to recoverForMay 2025, China’s newly added total social financing (TSF)wasRMB2.29tn (Wind consensus: RMB2.05tn), upbyRMB227.1bn yoy, with outstanding balancegrowth flat mom at 8.7% yoy. The yoy TSF expansion was primarily governmentbond-driven, while new loans contracted yoyalthough household medium-to-longterm(M/LT)loans showed recovery. M1yoyrebounded, withnewdeposits risingyoy.We see the recent policy package implementation accelerating domesticeconomic recovery, with sustained incremental fund inflowspoised to supportbankingsector performance. Amid improving policy expectations,we focus onbanks’structural opportunities:quality regional lenders in economically pivotalprovincesshowing earnings resilience;bankswithsolid fundamentalsunderweightedby active mutual funds relative to index weights;andlarge H-sharebankswith notable dividend-yieldadvantages. AnalystHE YatingSAC No. S0570524070008SFC No. BUB018heyating@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 AnalystPU JiayiSAC No. S0570123070039SFC No. BVL774pujiayi@htsc.com+(86) 755 8249 2388 CreditgrowthcontractedyoywhilehouseholdM/LTloansexpandedSpecifically,for May 2025,new loans were RMB620bn(Wind consensus: RMB802.6bn), down by RMB330bn yoy. Outstanding loan growth moderated to+7.1% yoy, dippingby0.1pp from April. New household loans were RMB54bn(downby RMB21.7bn yoy),with new short-term(ST)loans contracting byRMB45.1bn yoy whilenew M/LT loans expanded by RMB23.2bn yoy. Weakconsumer demand continued constraining householdST loans,although propertystabilization policies drove yoy growth inhousehold M/LTloans.New corporateloans wereRMB530bn (downbyRMB210bn yoy), showing mixed trends:new STloans rosebyRMB230bn yoy,while new M/LTloans fellbyRMB170bn yoy andnewbill financing dropped by RMB282.6bn yoy,with local government debtresolution materially affecting corporateM/LTloan growth. Source: Wind, Huatai Research Directfinancingexpanded yoy, governmentbonds gainedtractionMay 2025 new direct financing totaled RMB1.63tn (up by RMB361.9bn yoy), comprising: government bond issuance of RMB1.46tn (up by RMB236.7bn yoy),corporate bond financing of RMB149.6bn (up by RMB121.1bn yoy), and domesticequity financing by non-financial firms at RMB15.2bn (up by RMB4.1bn yoy).Government bonds remained the primary TSF growth driver for May.New off-balancesheet financing was RMB-115.6bn(expanding by RMB4.0bn yoy),includingnewentrusted loansofRMB-16.7bn (expandingbyRMB15.8bn yoy),newtrust loansof RMB17.3bn (down by RMB5.1bn yoy), and new undiscountedbankers’acceptancesofRMB-116.2bn (narrowing byRMB16.9bn yoy). M1yoy rebounded, new depositsexpandedyoyChina’s May 2025 M1/M2 growthwas2.3/7.9% yoy, upby0.8pp/downby0.1pp from April. The M1-M2 spread narrowedby0.9pp mom to-5.6%. The M1 recoveryreflected corporate current deposit support from fiscal fund disbursements and low-base effects from last year’s‘manual interest subsidy’effects. New deposits wereRMB2.18tn(up by RMB500bn yoy), comprising: new household depositsrising byRMB50bnyoy,non-financial corporate deposits decrement narrowing byRMB382.4bn yoy,newfiscal deposits upbyRMB116.7bn yoy, andnewnon-bankinstitutional deposits upbyRMB30bn yoy. To capture banking opportunities amid multi-dimensional fund flows China’s new TSF expanded yoy in May with government bonds astheprimarydriver, while credit growth contracted yoyalthough household M/LT loans showedrecovery. M1 yoy growth rebounded alongside yoy deposit expansion. Lookingahead, we believe sustained inflows from passive ETFs and insurance fundsshouldreinforce banks’status as index heavyweights and premium dividend plays. Weexpect mutual fund reform implementation to channel incremental capital into thesector, further fueling market momentum. Focus on three key themes: 1) qualityregional banks in economically pivotal provinces demonstrating earnings resilience,such as Bank of Nanjing, Bank of Chengdu, Bank of Chongqing, and ChongqingRCB; 2)fundamentally-sound banks underweightedby active mutual funds relativetoindex weights,including Industrial Bank and CMB shares(as of 1Q25,CMB/Industrial Bank showed 1.55/1.47% active fund underweight positions in CSI300 allocations); 3)largeH-share banks with compelling dividend yieldssuch asABC H and ICBC H (as of13June 2025, ABC H/ICBC Hhad2025E dividend yieldsof 4.87/5.50%). Industry risks:slowerpolicy implementationthan we expect;weakereconomicrecoverythan we expect. Disclaimers Analyst Certification I/We, SHEN Juan, HE Yating, PU Jiayi, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personalviewsof the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or willbe,directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specif