幻灯片：最惠国（MFN）行动-网络直播，今日（6月9日）美国东部时间上午11点

USA|Biotechnology *SLIDES*OperationMFN-WebcastTODAY,6/9@11amET MostFavoredNation(MFN)remainsoneofthebig3regulatoryoverhangs,alongwithdisruptionattheFDAandTariffs,fortheHealthcareSector JoinJefferiesBiotech&PharmaanalystAkashTewari&HCSpecialistWillSevushTODAY,6/9/25@11AMETaswegooverdifferentscenarios(Legislation,CMMI,IRA,etc.)+mitigationsteps,backedwithanalysis. EquityResearch June9,2025 **CLICKHERETOREGISTERFORTHEWEBCAST&SEEATTACHEDFOROURSLIDES** AkashTewari*|EquityAnalyst 1(212)284-3416|atewari@jefferies.com AmyLi,PharmD*|EquityAnalyst +1(332)236-6802|ali8@jefferies.com PhoebeTan*|EquityAssociate (212)778-8356|ptan1@jefferies.com AnastasiaParafestas*|EquityAssociate +1(212)336-6648|aparafestas@jefferies.com KatherineWang*|EquityAssociate +1(212)778-8985|kwang4@jefferies.com ManojEradath,MBBS,Ph.D.*|EquityAssociate +1(202)707-6443|meradath@jefferies.com ZakiMolvi,PhD*|EquityAssociate +1(212)708-2726|zmolvi@jefferies.com Additionally,pleaseseeHEREforourproprietaryExcelwiththetop50MedicarePartD/BdrugsandpricespreadsbetweenUSandex-USmarkets+ourdeepdiveonTariffsHERE. Thanks,Akash&Team AkashTewari ManagingDirector,BiotechnologyEquityResearchJefferiesLLC E:atewari@jefferies.comW:212-284-3416 C:929-595-5735 Source:Jefferiesanalysis Pleaseseeanalystcertifications,importantdisclosureinformation,andinformationregardingthestatusofnon-USanalystsonpages114-120ofthisreport. *JefferiesLLC/JefferiesResearchServices,LLC BiotechnologyEquityResearchJune9,2025 ==TeaserImages== Source:Jefferiesanalysis Source:Jefferiesanalysis BiotechnologyEquityResearchJune9,2025 Source:Jefferiesanalysis Source:Jefferiesanalysis OperationMFN AkashTewari,EquityAnalyst atewari@jefferies.com,+1(212)284-3416 AmyLi,Pharm.D,EquityAnalyst ali8@jefferies.com,+1(332)236-6802 ManojEradath,MBBSPhD,EquityAssociate meradath@jefferies.com,+1(212)707-6443 PhoebeTan,EquityAssociate ptan1@jefferies.com,+1(212)778-8356 KatherineWang,EquityAssociate kwang4@jefferies.com,+1(212)778-8985 AnastasiaParafestas,EquityAssociate aparafestas@jefferies.com,+1(212)336-6648 ZakiMolvi,PhD,EquityAssociate zmolvi@jefferies.com,+1(212)708-2726 PMSummary– #1.MFNremainsaheadlinerisk&there’sstillafairamountofuncertaintyparticularlyaroundtheimplementationframework&scope(eg,MedicarePartB/D,Medicaid)-thatsaid,we’reskepticalMFNultimatelygetsimplemented •Weseeseveraldistinctoutcomesre:MFNimplementation–whatseemstobemostlikelyatthispointisCMMIpilotprogram&wethinktheAdministrationwilllikelytrytoimplementabroadMFNmodel •Thatsaid,wedon’tthinkMFNultimatelygetsimplementedas:a)CMMIpilotprogramscannotcausepatientharm,whichwillbedifficulttoavoidasMFNmaylimitaccesstodrugsforMedicareand/orMedicaidpatients,b)weseeanegativeimpactinR&Dandinnovationlong-term #2.OuranalysissuggestsUSpharmastocksaremoreexposedtotheimpactofMFNgivenlargerdeltabetweenex-USpricesvsUSprices&co’soverallportfoliohaving~higherMedicareexposure-weranafewillustrativescenarioanalyses(incombinationwithour25%tariffw/mitigationmodel)tounderstandtheimpact •Withoutmitigation,ourLCPharmacoveragecouldseea20~30%impacttoEPS,assumingMFN-selecteddrugsincludeTop50MedicarePartD&Bdrugs(with~15%pricereductiontocommercial)Thatsaid,assumingpharmaemploysmitigationmeasures(eg,cuttingOPEX,pullingout/raisingpricesofselectex-USgeographies,commercialtakingmorevolumefromMedicareovertime)wethinkMFN’simpacttoearningsdropstomid-teensforLCPharma •Notably,ourMFN&25%tariff-adjustedDCF(withmitigation)forourLCPharmanamesstillcomesoutabovewherethestockiscurrentlytrading #3.Giventheuncertaintyonhowthetariffswillbeimposed,werecommendnamesthatlargelyhaveUSmanufacturing&USsales(wepreferMidcapbiotech) •Overall,weseeco’slikeMDGL,EXEL,ALKS,JAZZ,BMRN&ARGXasrelativelybetterpositionedforMFNbecausetheyeitherhavedeminimisex-USrevs,and/orlowMedicareexposure,orarelativelylowdeltabetweenUSvsex-USpricing...butevencompanieslikeMDGLwouldhavetorethinkwhetherenteringExUsmktsisworthitgoingforward Source:JefferiesAnalysis Overall,herearetheMFNimplementationroutes… ImplementationrouteImplementationroute subtype Reconciliation/Big Probabilityofimplementationroute 5% POSofMFN implementation <15% Congressionalaction BeautifulBill NewLegislation 10% <15% CMMIPilotProgram BroadScope 35% 30% MFN Implementation NarrowScope MFNwithinIRA(mayrequirenewlegislation) 15% 10% 60% 30% Hybridtariff/MFNcompromise(orpot’lpharmaconcession) NoMFN implementation Source:JefferiesAnalysis 15% 10% 60% 0% Let’sstartwithanoverviewoftheMFNPolicy&recentupdates Background:Trump’sMostFavoredNation’sDrugPriceProposal •OverviewofMFNPricingPolicyandmajorhistoricalevents LegalAnalysis:HowlikelywillMFNgetimplemented? •ThoughtsonrecentMFNExecutiveOrder&HHSPressRelease–whatweknow&majorremainingQ’s •SummaryofwaysMFNcouldgetimplementedincludingvia:a)CongressionalAction(eg,ReconciliationornewLegislation),b)CMMIpilotprogram,c)IRA,d)hybridtariff/MFNcompromise(orpotentialpharmaconcession) ImpactAnalysis:WhatistheimpacttoourcoverageifMFNdoesgetimplemented? •Ourdiligencere:probabilityofsuccessthatMFNgetsimplemented