印度股票策略：印度五只股票：即使在近期反弹后，对盈利的担忧依然存在

Equity Strategy &EquitiesIndia India Five:Worriesaboutearningsremain, even after the recent rally ◆Indiaoffersarefugeforinvestorsamid jittersaboutglobal macro;domesticpoliciesarefavourable Prerna Garg*Associate, Equity StrategyThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimitedprerna.garg@hsbc.com.hk+852 9831 6901 Q1earnings fared better thanconsensusexpectations; sustained recovery in demandisstill a few quarters away ◆India Five:GCPL,UPL,GAIL, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank,andHDFC Life Herald van der Linde*, CFAHead of Equity Strategy, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimitedheraldvanderlinde@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6575 Sentiment has improved,significantly.Indian markets are wellplaced amidst globaluncertaintyand tradetensions.As per ourproprietary positioning data, Asia and GEM fundshavestarted torebuild positions in India (that is,cut their underweights),butglobalinvestors arestillcautious.Aweaker dollar and softer inflation suggestthe foreign inflows can persist in coming months. furthersurprise on downside; urban consumption remains weak, privatecapexhas yettosee a pick-up, and growth in IT services could be weakamid policy uncertainties in the US.Rate cuts do not bode well forbanks’margins,andthis sectordominatesthemarketindex. Yogesh Aggarwal*Head of Research, IndiaHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India)Private Limitedyogeshaggarwal@hsbc.co.in+91 22 2268 1246India Research Team Strategy and five stocks.Indian equitiesreboundednotablyin the pastfew weeks on the back of lowerdomesticbond yields, nowdownto a 3-year low. Lower local bond yields are very supportive to local equities.However,we remain concerned about the growth outlookand findvaluations elevated. Domesticsupport.Thecentralgovernment and the central bankarebothprovidingpolicysupport.Governmentcapexsurged to arecordhigh inQ125, whilethe central bankhasadopteda morepro-growthstance than anticipated. This is evident from the recent larger-than-expectedcutsinthebenchmarkrate(50bps)andcash reserve ratio(100bps).This should bode well fordomesticgrowth.Stable inflowsfrom domestic investors provide anotherkey supportto equities. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Inthisenvironment,we prefer stocks thatwe believeoffer good growth,preferablyforstructural oridiosyncratic reasons.These are our top fiveideas in India:Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL)stands out for itsinnovation capabilities andisgaining market share in the homeinsecticides business.United Phosphorus Limited (UPL)ison courseforrecovery, in our view; surprises on growth, margins, and lower debtshould drive further re-rating.GAILhas underperformed in the marketthis year butwe think itisstructurallywell placed to benefit fromarise indemand for clean energyinthemedium term.A potentialgastariffrevision andmorepipeline completionscould benear-term catalysts.Ujjivan Small Finance BankandHDFC Lifebenefit fromthe easingrate environment. 11 June 2025 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Earningsgrowth–a sustained recovery will take time.Growth inQ1 surprised; EPSfor FTSE India (ex-commodities) improvedby10%y-o-y,up from thesingle-digit growth inthelastfourquarters.Industrials,healthcareand telecomreportedstrong growth.Consumerdiscretionary sawEPSgrow 14% on the back of strong numbers inretail and services. However,FMCG companieshadanotherweakquarterbecause ofsoftdemand andincreasedcompetition.Growthinbanks andtechis tepid at5-6% y-o-y. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Despitethe beat in Q1, webelieve a sustained recovery in earningsgrowth is still a few quarters away.Factsetconsensushasmade sharpcutstoestimates andis nowlooking for 11%in 2025e. This could We are neutral on India from the Asian perspectivewith the2025-endindex target of 82,240 fortheSensex. Find out more MildrecoveryinQ1,sequential recoveryaway Earnings growth in CY Q1 2025 saw an improvement afterfourquarters of weakgrowth.Netincome for FTSE India (ex-commodities)expandedby10%.Commodities,healthcare and industrials saw a strongquarter. Demand for consumerstapleswassubdued,while competitive intensity among FMCGplayers remainsstrong. Earnings grew byalow-single-digitrate.Durables andconsumerservices saw strong growth. ◆The IT services reported net income growth of 6%,buttheglobalmacro uncertaintycontinues to weigh on the growth outlook in coming quarters.Growth forbanksmoderated toasingle-digitrateamid weak credit demand and margin pressures.Boththe heavy-weight sectors will continue tonegatively impacttheaggregategrowth. ◆The macro environment has improved,butwe believeasustained recovery in earningsgrowth is still a few quarters away. Consensus made sharp cuts in full-year growthestimates, led by private banksandIT services;consensus islooking for growth of 11%in CY25e. Source: FTSE