面向未来

CrossAssetResearch 8June2025 GlobalPortfolioManager'sDigest FacingtheFuture Weprovidecontextandperspectiveonresearchacrossregionsandassetclasses,thisweekhighlightingourSPXexpectationsinto2026;agloballookintopotentialgrowthdriversinadvancedlogicandDRAM;andcross-assetviewsonUSconsumertravel. •SPXInto2026:Wethinkpeaktariffuncertaintyhaslikelypassed,whichshouldallowmodestvaluationexpansionfromhere,andtakeour2025SPXpricetargetslightlyhigherto6050from5900.Thatsaid,EPShasyettofeelthebruntofincrementaltariffsYTD,ratesarestillelevatedamidconcernsaroundtheUSfiscaloutlook,andapotentialconsumerpullbackremainsarisk,whichkeepsourvaluationassumptionsincheckandourFY25EPSestimateunchangedat$262.OurtariffframeworkleveragestradeandgrossoutputdataattheindustryleveltoestimateEPSdragatdifferentlevelsoftariffsonChina,Europe,Canada,Mexico,andRoW.WeintroduceourFY26EPSestimateat$285(consensus$301)andour2026PTat6700,expectingearningsgrowthtonormalizesomewhatfrom2025'stariffshock.WeremainPositiveonFinancials(steeperyieldcurve,delayedratecuts,potentialderegulation,banksareabrightspotvs.overallnegativeEPSrevisions),Healthcare(attractivevaluation,robustEPSgrowthoutlook,potentialbeneficiaryofincreasedM&A/dealactivity)andBigTech(1Q25confirmedthatcriticalgrowthdriversarestillintact). •WFEExpectations:WeseemoreleadingedgefabstakingequipmentforTSMCin2026vs2025,andthusTSMC's2nmcapacityadditionsrampingfurtherin2026.TSMChascontinuallyflaggedbettercustomerengagementfor2nmcomparedtopriornodes,andmobilecustomerscouldbemigratingmorequicklythanhistorically,helpingtodrivedemandsooner.2027couldbethebiggestyearyet,withevenmorefabstoolingin.Further,Intelisyettogrowintoitscurrentcapacity,whichisdependentonPantherLakesuccess.IfIntelissuccessful,thespacecouldramprelativelyquickly,butthisislikelytobea2027opportunityattheearliest.Thismeans2026islikelydown.WebelieveSamsungwilladdminimalleadingedge SIGNATURE EquityProductManagementGroup TerenceMalone* +12125267578 terence.malone@barclays.comBCI,US RobBate* +44(0)2077733576 rob.bate@barclays.comBarclays,UK FICCProductManagementGroup BenMcLannahan* +44(0)2031349586 ben.mclannahan@barclays.comBarclays,UK JenniferCardilli* +12125268351 jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI,US ThisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheindependenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailinvestorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforitsownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.Suchtradinginterestsmaybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport. BarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision. *ThisindividualisamemberoftheProductManagementGroupandisnotaResearchAnalyst Allresearchreferencedhereinhasbeenpreviouslypublished.Youcanviewthefullreports,includinganalystcertificationsandotherimportantdisclosures,byclickingthehyperlinksinthispublicationorbygoingtoourResearchportalonBarclaysLive. FORANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)PLEASESEEPAGE32. FORIMPORTANTEQUITYRESEARCHDISCLOSURES,PLEASESEEPAGE32. FORIMPORTANTFIXEDINCOMERESEARCHDISCLOSURES,PLEASESEEPAGE33. Completed:06-Jun-25,23:04GMTReleased:08-Jun-25,13:00GMTRestricted-External capacityin2025,and2H25willbekeyindeterminingwhetheritscapexwillbehigherin2026.Bigpicture,weseeupsideriskinleadingedgelogicandamixedoutlookforDRAM,leavinguswithabroadlyflattishoutlookoverallbutdownsideriskin2026.Whilstweexpectsemicaptobedirectlyimmune,theSection232outcome/updateremainsanoverhangforthesector. •TravelTribulations:USconsumerspendingisexpectedtoslowthisyearamidpolicy-relatedheadwinds.Whilemostanalystsagreethattheoutlookhasstabilizedfornow,someassetclassesareflashingwarningsigns.Whileapull-backingoodsspendingismorethanlikelyastariff-relatedpricepressuresaccumulate,servicesspending,particularlyondiscretionaryitemssuchastravel,isalsovulnerable.Ourlatestdatapoints(22May)suggestthatm/mspendgrowthisnolongerbelowthetrajectoryofthelastfewyears.Sometravel-relatedmunicipalshavebeenflashingwarningsigns,asairporttraffichasstarteddecliningandMoody'shasdowngradedthissector'soutlook.Meanwhile,LasVegastourismandgamblingrevenueshavealsobeentrendingdownthisyear.USairlinedemandhaspulledbackroughlyfivepointssinceJanuary,withreducedgovernmenttravelandweakerdomesticUSleisuredemandbeingcitedasthelargestnegativevariancesthisyearbymostcarriermanagementteams.Lookingforward,thoughourendmarketsfeelasifthey'vemostlystabilized,consumersremain"onedge."Wecontinuetofavorsectorswiththestrongeststructuralsetupforsustainablegrowth,whichinthecurrentenvironmentisCruiseLines,followedbyDigitalGaming. ChartoftheWeek:Our20.5xNTMP/EassumptionforSPXex-Techapproximatesourmacro-basedfairvalueestimate Source:LSEGData&Analytics,Bloomberg,BarclaysResearch(seeU.S.EquityStrategy:Raise2025SPXPTto6050,