中国黄金国际（02099）：一家具有吸引力的估值的有色金属中央国有企业

EquityResearchReport ChinaGoldInternationalResources(2099HK) ACopper-GoldCentralSOEwithAttractiveValuation HuataiResearchCompanyUpdateRating(Maintain):BUY 5June2025│China(HongKong)PreciousMetals ChinaGoldInternational(CGI)hasdemonstratedrobustoperationalperformancesincetheresumptionofitsJiamacopper-goldpolymetallicmine,deliveringstrongresultsforthreeconsecutivequarterssince2H24.Withfavorablepreciousmetalpricetrendsin2025,wethinkCGI’spreciousmetalsbusinessprofitcontributionmaysurpassthatofcopper(andother)operations,potentiallydrivingavaluationre-rating.Lookingahead,weexpectJiamacopper-goldpolymetallicmine‘sthree-phaseexpansionplantodrivethecompany’sproductioncapacitygrowth.WereaffirmCGIasastate-ownedcopper-goldminerwithattractivevaluationandmaintainBUY. Three-phasedevelopmentofJiamaminetofuelgrowth PerCGI’s1Q25results,CGIhasoutlinedathree-phaselong-termdevelopmentplanfortheJiamamine.1)AfterthePhaseIIItailingsreservoirbecomesoperationalin2027,oreprocessingcapacitywillrisefrom34ktpdto44ktpd.2) Targetprice(HKD):78.76 Keydata Targetprice(HKD)78.76 Closingprice(HKDasof4Jun)66.25 Potentialupside-/+(%)19 Mktcap(HKDmn)26,262 6mavgdailyval(HKDmn)105.71 52wkpricerange(HKD)28.00-66.95 BVPS(USD)4.68 Shareperformance ChinaGoldInternational Withinthenexttwoyears,aspartofundergroundresourceintegration,CGIwillseektoincreasethemininglicense’spermittedcapacityto50ktpdpendingsafetyapprovals.3)ThecompanyisexploringnewresourcesaroundJiama,withBayiRanchandZegulangNorthshowingsignificantpotential—anupdatedexplorationreportfortheseareascouldinourviewcomeoutbyApril2026,andsubsequentmine-wideexpansionplanswillalignwithexplorationoutcomesandfeasibility studies.Additionally,theChangshanhaogoldminewilllikelymaintainc.25ktpa (%)35 14 (7) (27) (48) HSI Jun-24Oct-24Feb-25Jun-25 outputuntilitsrelocationcompletesin2029-2030.Thecompanymayprioritize Analyst SACNo.S0570517050001SFCNo.BPN269 LIBin libin@htsc.com +(86)1063211166 M&Aopportunitiesforcopper-goldandgoldassets,focusingonmatureassetsfrommajorshareholders. Sustainedimpressive1Q25resultsvalidatingrobustoperatingcapabilityFortheJiamamine,1Q25operationsweresolid:copper/goldoutputwas17kt/0.65tandsalesvolumewere17kt/0.65t,withbothannualizedoutputslightlyexceedingfull-yearguidance(63-67kt/2.15-2.3t).Theslightuptickincopperpricingcoefficientsvs2H24chieflyreflectsahigherproportionofcopper-molybdenumore(lowershareofcopper-lead-zincore).CopperunitcostsedgedupqoqtoUSD3.01/lbin1Q25,likelytiedtoloweroutput,inourview.AttheChangshanhaogoldmine,1Q25operationsbeatourexpectations:goldoutput/salesvolumereached0.74t/0.85t,withannualizedfigureaboveguidance(2.4-2.6t)primarilyduetomininginhigher-gradezonesduringwinter’sstableslopeconditionsandincreasedstockpiling.Unitcostsremainedstabledespitevolumeshrinkage,mainlyas4Q24costswereinflatedbyone-offfactors. MaintainBUY Consideringstronger-than-we-expectedgoldpriceupsidesince2025andtheJiamamine’splannedshifttowardhighercopper-molybdenumoresalesshare(reducingcopper-lead-zincoreshare)startingin3Q25,weraiseourgoldpriceassumptionsandcopperpricingcoefficientsfor2025-2027,liftingour2025/2026/2027attributableNPestimatesby30/39/31%toUSD350/403/465mn.InourSOTPanalysis,weestimateCGI’scopper(andothers)/preciousmetalsegmentscontributing45/55%ofprofitin2025,withapotentialvaluationre-ratingastheprofitshareofthelatterexceedsthatoftheformer.Giventhecompany’srelativelyconcentratedprofitsources,weassigncopper/goldbusinessesPEmultiplesof7.6/14.4x(previous”7.5/15.7x2025EPE),10/30%discountstotheirpeers’averagesof8.4/20.6xonWindconsensus.WeraiseourtargetpricefromHKD60.74toHKD78.76. Risks:weakercopper/goldpricesthanweexpect;CGI’scapacityexpansiontrailingourexpectations;CGI’sminecostsexceedingourexpectations. Source:S&P ChinaGoldInternationalResources(2099HK) FinancialsYE31Dec 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue(USDmn) 459.43 756.65 1,103 1,172 1,308 +/-% (58.42) 64.69 45.77 6.22 11.69 Netprofitattr.toparent(USDmn) (25.50) 62.73 349.73 403.25 464.76 +/-% (111.45) 346.01 457.50 15.30 15.26 EPS(diluted,USD) (0.06) 0.16 0.88 1.02 1.17 ROE(%) (1.42) 3.62 18.92 19.81 20.66 PE(x) (104.26) 42.38 7.60 6.59 5.72 PB(x) 1.56 1.51 1.37 1.25 1.12 EVEBITDA(x) 51.45 15.64 6.90 5.96 5.25 Source:Companyannouncements,HuataiResearchestimates Fig.1:ChinaGoldInternationalResourcesPE-BandsFig.2:ChinaGoldInternationalResourcesPB-Bands (HKD)143 ━━━━━ChinaGoldInternational (HKD)74 ━━━━━ChinaGoldInternational 107 71 36 0 Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24 25x 20x 15x10x5x 55 37 18 0 Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24 1.8x 1.5x 1.1x 0.8x 0.5x Source:S&P,HuataiResearchSource:S&P,HuataiResearch Fullfinancials Incomestatement Cashflowstatement YE31Dec(USDmn) 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E YE31Dec(USDmn) 2023 2024 2025E 2026E 2027E Revenue 459.43 756.65 1,103 1,172 1,308 EBITDA 76.16 246.30 556.11 626.83 708.29 Costofgoodssold (379.07) (569.73) (612.70) (611.52) (667.47) Financecosts 17.94 17.28 13.71 12.54 11.74 Grossmargin 80.37 186.92 490.26 560.00 640.97 Changesinworkingcap (72.34) 34.57 (47.13)