黑色系周报—铁矿石

东亚期货基本面信息：1、港库、钢厂库存环比下降；2、铁水环比下降，钢厂利润维持不变，同比高位。观点：铁水继续回落，同比高位；港库、钢厂库存环比下降。钢厂高利润下，铁水小幅震荡但仍处高位，铁矿石基本面仍有支撑。后续到港增大，或对价格有一定压力。铁矿石2509合约震荡。 1-4月国产原矿累计产量32859.6吨，同比-12.2%。4月进口10313.8万吨，同比+1.29％，1-4月进口38836万吨，累计同比-2.91%。2025年05月27日-06月02日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2868.8万吨，环比增加78.8万吨。澳洲发运总量1920.5万吨，环比减少92.7万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1499.8万吨，环比减少281.4万吨。巴西发运总量948.3万吨，环比铁水-0.11万吨至241.80万吨，同比去年增加6.05万吨。Mysteel统计全国45个港口日均疏港量313.99万吨，环比减少12.69万吨。本期45港口库存13826.69万吨，环比减少39.89万吨，同比减少1101.07万吨。钢厂库存8690.18万吨，环比减少64.15万吨，同比减少528.02万吨，库存天数28.92天，环比减少0.29天。基本面要点： •供给：增加171.5万吨。•需求：•库存：东亚期货 3 价格和价差供给需求库存 目录 1、价格和价差-价格东亚期货2704706708701070127014701/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1铁矿指数2016201720182019202120222023202425751251752251/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1普氏指数58%（美元/干吨）201620172018202120222023 1、价格和价差-价格东亚期货355575951151351551751952152352552751/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1普氏指数65%（美元/干吨）20162017201820192021202220232024250450650850105012501450165018501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1青岛港61.5%PB粉（元/湿吨）20162017201820192021202220232025 1、价格和价差-价格东亚期货1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1青岛港62.5%PB块（元/湿吨）201620172018201920212022202320241/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1山东沂水62%球团矿（元/吨）20162017201820192021202220232024 1、价格和价差-价差东亚期货-300-200-10001002001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1铁矿石1-520162017201820192021202220232024-250-150-50501501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1铁矿石9-120162017201820192021202220232024 1、价格和价差-价差东亚期货1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1中低品价差：普氏62%-58%（美元/干吨）201720182019202020222023202420251/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/165%球团溢价（美元/吨）20162017201820192021202220232024 1、价格和价差-价差东亚期货-200-170-140-110-80-50-201040701001301601902202502803101/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1指数基差20162017201820192021202220232024-160-120-80-40040801201602002402803203604001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1铁矿石01合约基差20162017201820192021202220232024 1、价格和价差-价差东亚期货-210-180-150-120-90-60-3003060901201501802102402703001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1铁矿石05合约基差20162017201820192021202220232024-300-240-180-120-600601201802403001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1铁矿石09合约基差20162017201820192021202220232024 1、价格和价差-价差东亚期货-2000200400600800100012001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1螺纹指数盘面利润20162017201820192021202220232024-50005001000150020001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1河北五大成材加权平均利润20162017201820192021202220232024 1、价格和价差-价差东亚期货-1000-500050010001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1华北废钢-铁水无税20162017201820192021202220232024 2、供给东亚期货5,500.006,500.007,500.008,500.009,500.0010,500.0011,500.0012,500.002008-012008-052008-092009-01 2、供给东亚期货5500650075008500950010500115001月0200004000060000800001000001200001月 2、供给东亚期货150020002500300035001/12/13/1澳大利亚+巴西19港周度发货量万吨2019300400500600700800900100011001/12/13/12019 2、供给东亚期货120014001600180020002200240026001/12/13/120182019200600100014001800220026003000340038004200460050005400580062001/12/13/1 2、供给东亚期货24681012141618202224261/12/13/1454953576165691/12/13/1全国266座矿山产能利用率（%） 3、需求东亚期货40004500500055006000650070007500800085003月1000020000300004000050000600007000080000900002月 3、需求东亚期货2352552752953153353551/12/13/1全国45港口日均疏港量（万吨）201820191902002102202302402502601/12/13/1247家钢厂日均铁水产量（万吨/天）20182019 3、需求东亚期货2030405060701/12/13/1201820197880828486889092941/12/13/1 3、需求东亚期货70717273747576771/12/13/11010.51111.51212.5131/12/13/1 3、需求东亚期货606570758085901/12/13/120182019 4、库存东亚期货10000110001200013000140001500016000170001/11/111/211/312/102/203/13/113500450055006500750085009500105001/11/111/211/312/102/203/13/11 4、库存东亚期货40005000600070008000900010000110001/11/111/211/312/102/203/13/11600070008000900010000110001200013000140001/11/111/211/312/102/203/1 4、库存东亚期货50070090011001300150017001/11/111/211/312/102/203/13/113/213/31全国45港口铁精粉库存（万吨）80009000100001100012000130001/11/111/211/312/102/203/13/113/21247家钢厂进口矿总库存万吨2020 4、库存东亚期货0204060801/11/111/211/312/102/203/13/113/214060801001201401601/11/111/211/312/102/203/13/113/21 服务-风险管理顾问协助客户建立风险管理制度、操作流程，提供风险管理咨询、专项培训等。服务-研究分析收集整理期货市场信息及各类相关经济信息，研究分析期货市场及相关现货市场的价格及其相关影响因素，制作、提供研究分析报告或者资讯信息的研究分析服务。服务-交易咨询为客户设计套期保值、套利等投资方案，拟定期货交易策略等。 服务问询电话：021-55275087（由交易咨询部统一受理）投诉电话：021-55275065谢谢！ 服务-服务电话